WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

EURO is horrible with this. Initialized Nepartak at only 980mb at 00Z. Really?

Kudos to GFS been sniffing out this Category 5 for days on end and initialized at 911mb. Forecast for some weakening due to EWC but strengthens it again before landfall...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2016 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 20:04:38 N Lon : 127:10:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 910.7mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.3 degrees

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/750654303245832192

[stormwise]

typhoon No. 1 (Niparutakku)
2016 07 06 day 18 hour 45 minute presentation

<Commentary o'clock 06 18>
size -
strength Ferocious
Presence area East of the Philippines
Center position North latitude 19 degrees 50 minutes (19.8 degrees)
East longitude 127 degrees 40 minutes (127.7 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed WNW 30km / h (17kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m / s (115kt)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 85m / s (165kt)
25m / s or more of the storm area The entire 170km (90NM)
15m / s or more of the strong wind area Northeast side 500km (270NM)
Southwest side 330km (180NM)

<Forecast o'clock 07 days 06>
strength Ferocious
Presence area Okinawa in the south
The center of the circle forecast North latitude 21 degrees 05 minutes (21.1 degrees)
East longitude 125 degrees 05 minutes (125.1 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed WNW 25km / h (14kt)
Central pressure 890hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m / s (120kt)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 85m / s (170kt)
The radius of the circle forecast 70km (40NM)
Storm warning area The entire 240km (130NM)

[mrbagyo]

Eyewall replacement cycle is underway!

[1900hurricane]

You could tell it was getting ready to happen when the eye temp started cooling back down again. I wonder how fast it can be completed.

It's also worth noting that Nepartak is now north of 20*N, which is a rule of thumb I like to use that says the more intense tropical cyclones start to weaken as they begin to feel some of the effects of the more hostile mid-latitudes. However, it's not infallible, especially in July when subtropical ridging is climatologically further north.

[1900hurricane]

If you look real closely, I think you can start to see the beginnings of eyewall replacement in the CDO when looking at the Ash RGB on JMA's Target Area.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, that's it, you can start to see in on the color IR now too.

[mrbagyo]

Remains at 150 knots.
02W NEPARTAK 160706 1200 20.2N 126.9E WPAC 150 911

The CDO has expanded significantly today which imo would give it a better chance of surviving the cycle.
I also expect the cycle to be a fast one akin to Soudelor (2015)- a textbook eyewall replacement cycle not the "ew loooking" cinnamon roll type of ERC

[Yellow Evan]

ERC seems to be going very quickly.

[mrbagyo]

The last typhoon to make landfall over Central Taiwan or even in the entirety of Taiwan as a Category 5 storm was Typhoon Bilis in year 2000 - it struck central Taiwan as a 260 kph juggernaut.

Here are the other category 5 storms that were able to make landfall in Taiwan at cat 5 strength:
Winnie (1958)
Joan (1959)
Opal (1962)

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing it probably peaked at 0600Z at 165 kt, but has come down some since. The ERC could result in a larger RMW which could mean much more damage in Taiwan...

[alan1961]

Coming into view on Taiwan radar

[StormChaser75]

Alan I was just about to post that image ! XD you beat me to it, a rgb sat image from the central weather bureau

Nice pin hole eye on it to and most likely expected to expand more if it continues the EWRC.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/750752648823861249

[cycloneye]

http://i.imgur.com/g4BYpDG.jpg

Coming into view on Taiwan radar

Do you have the link to radar?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/750762554822127616

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/750772048297881600

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement is already in its final stages.

[1900hurricane]

Not relevant right now, but here is a MODIS Aqua pass from yesterday/earlier today (depending on your timezone).