ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I appreciate the optimism in here but it's a little irresponsible, especially from some of the mets in here, to say this is done when that's far from the truth. I'll listen to the nhc

Wxman also has an excellent track record when it comes to calling "Bones" on a wave. He didn't call "Bones" yet, just said he's getting close.

[Bailey1777]

Question...what do you'll consider dead? No reflection at the surface or what?

[HurriGuy]

Question...what do you'll consider dead? No reflection at the surface or what?

The wave is nowhere near dead. Watch the convection.

[stormhunter7]

8pm TWO

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[stormhunter7]

"This system has become less organized since yesterday, with only
minimal associated shower activity, and the chances for development
during the next 2 days have decreased. Overall, environmental
conditions are not expected to be as conducive for development of
this system as anticipated earlier this week. However, upper-level
winds could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early
next week when the system is expected to be near the Florida Keys or
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico."

8pm TWO

[tolakram]

Question...what do you'll consider dead? No reflection at the surface or what?

Unfavorable environment, no existing LLC, and less organization than yesterday. If anything is to improve the environmental conditions need to improve and so far that is not happening.

I think it's a good idea to relax and figure we will be tracking these clouds for at least a few more days if not an entire week. I don't think anything sudden is going to happen here but you never know.

[floridasun78]

when next fight?

[HurriGuy]

Quick note: Looking at last couple of frames of RGB, I think that mid-level circulation near Hispaniola just collapsed

[CrazyC83]

Question...what do you'll consider dead? No reflection at the surface or what?

Unfavorable environment, no existing LLC, and less organization than yesterday. If anything is to improve the environmental conditions need to improve and so far that is not happening.

I think it's a good idea to relax and figure we will be tracking these clouds for at least a few more days if not an entire week. I don't think anything sudden is going to happen here but you never know.

Even if it completely dissipates, it is still possible the vorticity could build convection back up in the Gulf later.

[RL3AO]

Also everyone notice the "shear"/mid and upper level wind direction has changed from wsw to a straight south.. could be advecting mid and upper level moisture northward could be helpful in getting some more convection going.

Maybe the anti-cyclone is getting a little better placed?

[weathernerdguy]

I'm honestly getting frustrated over people saying to bring out bones and that this system is dead and such.

[mcheer23]

I'm honestly getting frustrated over people saying to bring out bones and that this system is dead and such.

There's a reason why they don't work for the NHC.

[La Breeze]

I will admit I was nervous earlier in the week when when the euro was having its mega meltdown and it kept showing a major between lake Charles and mobile. But now not concerned one bit.

Why are you not concerned? Just wondering, because I am still a bit concerned living along the SW LA coast.

[chris46n]

 https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/768850478058893312

Check out my post on the next page..I think I see another swirl, and would prob. be more promising. YOU And Dolly have something in common.

[johngaltfla]

Question...what do you'll consider dead? No reflection at the surface or what?

Unfavorable environment, no existing LLC, and less organization than yesterday. If anything is to improve the environmental conditions need to improve and so far that is not happening.

I think it's a good idea to relax and figure we will be tracking these clouds for at least a few more days if not an entire week. I don't think anything sudden is going to happen here but you never know.

Rats. I was ready to beam McCoy into the thread.

I will say however that 99L may perish overnight but it does bear watching on Sunday as it gets closer to the Florida Keys.

[sphelps8681]

I thought nothing was suppose to happen till Sat. But everyone on her is saying "next". Next because it won't be as strong for Florida as they thought or next because it wont' be anyone's problem. It kinda gets a little confusing when you have everyone talking out of different sides of their mouths because of where they may live. Many new people will not know what is really happening.

BTW: I do realize that models will flip/flop back and forth until there is something to track.

[tolakram]

It's still a wave and has an increased chance of development like every wave has. If this wave moves into a favorable environment it certainly does bear watching.

[floridasun78]

i think we see new low forming east of Bahamas and one in south deading out if look loop you storm are coming together to east of Bahamas unless that ull that forming that area

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SSB]

Dunno if Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) posts in this forum or if anyone follows his discussions, but he has his usual excellent daily analysis on 99L at https://youtu.be/CqXc4FfRYZ0.

[HurricaneBelle]

Now down to 30-60, here's an illustration of NHC's trend on 99L development: