ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xcool22]

Now down to 30-60, here's an illustration of NHC's trend on 99L development:

lmao

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I will admit I was nervous earlier in the week when when the euro was having its mega meltdown and it kept showing a major between lake Charles and mobile. But now not concerned one bit.

Why are you not concerned? Just wondering, because I am still a bit concerned living along the SW LA coast.

Because none of the models are showing much of anything except the euro and that's not even much and look how bad that has turned out anyway. Now if it looked like this with model support and the nhc raising, not lowering chances then would be concerned.

[Frank2]

There's a reason why they don't work for the NHC.

Guess you haven't read the latest TWO - if they downplay it any further it'll be on the floor. Sure it could reorganize but for now it has not.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

when next fight?

NOAA research mission departs at 2am EDT from Tampa. (Research missions every 12 hours, departing at 2am and 2pm EDT)

Air Force mission departs at 7:45am EDT. Should arrive around possible center at around 10am EDT. No Air Force low levels missions at night. If an LLC is not found, they cancel the evening missions and reschedule it for during the day. The Air Force missions are if necessary.

The second NOAA mission today seemed to turn back early. Not sure why. NOAA HRD blog where they sometimes post the flight pattern scheduled:
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 251546
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-091

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70           FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 74
       A. 26/1400Z                    A. 26/2330Z, 27/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
       C. 26/1145Z                    C. 26/2000Z
       D. 23.0N 75.0W                 D. 23.6N 75.8W
       E. 26/1330Z TO 26/1730Z        E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT   

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75
       A. 27/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0708A CYCLONE
       C. 27/0815Z
       D. 24.0N 71.0W
       E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT   

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A SYNOPTIC
       SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 28/0000Z.

    3. REMARKS:
       A. MISSION FOR 25/2330Z AND 26/0530Z CANCELED.
       B. MISSION FOR 26/1130Z AND 26/1730Z CHANGED TO FLIGHT
       ONE ABOVE.
       C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL CONTINUE RESEARCH MISSIONS
       INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS WITH TAKEOFFS AT 0600Z
       AND 1800Z.
       D. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION AROUND HURRICANE GASTON       
       DEPARTING 26/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 80 DROPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

From Plan of The Day: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[SeGaBob]

If it's history of building convection at night repeats along with what's starting to fire now, maybe it'll look somewhat decent here in a few hours.

[Kazmit]

NHC mentions that 99L will be heading near the keys or over in the Florida Straits. Less land interaction + warmer SSTs = a possibly powerful gulf storm. But if it doesn't completely fall apart, it could have a lot of time to strengthen before a Gulf Coast impact if it doesn't make landfall in S. Florida.

[mcheer23]

There's a reason why they don't work for the NHC.

Guess you haven't read the latest TWO - if they downplay it any further it'll be on the floor. Sure it could reorganize but for now it has not.

It's still 60 percent, which means there is a greater chance that it will develop...

[HurriGuy]

So if the wave makes it intact into the southern Gulf and it starts to strengthen under the upper high, I don't expect to hear any comment from the people "not worried" or "done with it".

[abajan]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/768909120837517312

[Javlin]

Hasn't moved much in the last hour or two.

[HurricaneBelle]

If this doesn't end up developing, the NHC should retire the invest # 99L - they can just skip from 98 to 90 or promote 89 to take its place.

[alienstorm]

Been looking at that area all day which is now moving off the Haitian north coast, I still believe there is something there and wont be surprise to see the LLC tug back to the east if the convention continues to grow. This area was inside the DR and moving wnw all day and it's now emerging over water, point of reference this is the old MLC which never really dissipated.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

NHC mentions that 99L will be heading near the keys or over in the Florida Straits. Less land interaction + warmer SSTs = a possibly powerful gulf storm. But if it doesn't completely fall apart, it could have a lot of time to strengthen before a Gulf Coast impact if it doesn't make landfall in S. Florida.

There is nothing from the nhc mentioning anything about the possibility of a strong gulf storm nor any model support

[Bocadude85]

The big picture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-animated.gif

[wxman57]

There's a reason why they don't work for the NHC.

Guess you haven't read the latest TWO - if they downplay it any further it'll be on the floor. Sure it could reorganize but for now it has not.

It's still 60 percent, which means there is a greater chance that it will develop...

I think it means that they, like us, will only reduce probabilities a little at a time - not all at once. They're thinking the same thing I am, I'm sure. We still have to keep an eye on it, but think about this. If the models had NEVER indicated any development and we saw something like this, with little model support for development, what chances would we give it?

[HurriGuy]

There is nothing from the nhc mentioning anything about the possibility of a strong gulf storm nor any model support

You are missing the point.

And there is support from the HWRF. Lot of models still developing this. NAM, UKMET, ECMWF, CMC....

HWRF actually develops nothing until the southeast Gulf. Shows nothing but the wave and then once under the Upper High, it takes off

[mcheer23]

NHC mentions that 99L will be heading near the keys or over in the Florida Straits. Less land interaction + warmer SSTs = a possibly powerful gulf storm. But if it doesn't completely fall apart, it could have a lot of time to strengthen before a Gulf Coast impact if it doesn't make landfall in S. Florida.

There is nothing from the nhc mentioning anything about the possibility of a strong gulf storm nor any model support

No model support? 18z HWRF just spit out a CAT 3.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hurriguy


Wasn't talking about your post was actually replying to what I edited and quoted. And I meant no model support for a strong system. Not worried about a depression or minimal storm

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

If it's history of building convection at night repeats along with what's starting to fire now, maybe it'll look somewhat decent here in a few hours.

Yeah i said that earlier if any of the slight circular area of the storm convects well tonight and moves into the favorable water, there might be a whole new story tomorrow

[jason1912]

Blob of tiny convection near the naked swirl?