ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

It can make your head spin on here for sure but this is by far the best sight for the tropics..it stays active and that's what I'm looking for. Thanks for all you do Storm2K...

[Hurricaneman]

Just to get you guys talking more, but I have just found another eddy or vorticitu maximum back in the convection around 23N 70W. Notice the fairly strong SSW wind observation just to the east of this lower level spin. Interesting at the very least.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

There is low shear in that area, thats where I would look if the vortmax near Cuba goes inland

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[CourierPR]

Just to get you guys talking more, but I have just found another eddy or vorticitu maximum back in the convection around 23N 70W. Notice the fairly strong SSW wind observation just to the east of this lower level spin. Interesting at the very least.

I saw that a few minutes ago. Never say never when you have a system near The Bahamas in late August. I just watched NBC6 in Miami and the anchors were almost to the point of high fiving each other that this system is done.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible this could become 2 separate systems, one from the Vortmax near Cuba and the one at 70W 23N

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Watch how the midlevel circulation starts transferring north. Start your eyes at about 18.5N, 70W and follow the loop to about 20N, 70W. Old midlevel circulation dying out south of Hispaniola. Could be wrong, but that is what it appears to me.

[HurriGuy]

I think this justifies what I am seeing

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769017323495849984

[STRiZZY]

99L Sure has traveled some distance.

[HurriGuy]

GFS has some pretty favorable conditions in 18 hours. Proximity to Cuba probably biggest negative factor.

[HurriGuy]

And of course GFS has started a trend to my solution on the previous page with the energy making it to the Upper High in the Gulf. More defined this run and a mere 100 miles to the west better positioned towards the center of the upper high is going to make a worlds difference in the outcome.

Let's keep watching

[NJWxHurricane]

35 dropsdones were incorporated into thid GFS run.(data from planes)

[Blinhart]

Could this system actually get it self better organized because of the funnel effect it will be getting from going between Cuba and the point of Florida? I see the models are now saying that this won't really get its act together until it gets into the GoM, is this because they have more information from all the recon flights?

[floridasun78]

I think this justifies what I am seeing

good eye i looking at sat pic i do see spin that area let see nhc see it send plane to check it out

[Bocadude85]

I think this justifies what I am seeing

good eye i looking at sat pic i do see spin that area let see nhc see it send plane to check it out

If that is in fact where a new llc forms then the models have initialized to far west

[HurriGuy]

I think this justifies what I am seeing

good eye i looking at sat pic i do see spin that area let see nhc see it send plane to check it out

If that is in fact where a new llc forms then the models have initialized to far west

Guys this is 500mb vorticity. I was only making an observation that the mid-level vorticity is trying to catch up to the upper half of the wave axis. Models had been showing this lag and catch-up game.

[JILL239]

Still a newbie been lurking just moved from Fort Lauderdale to Naples and gotta say I am a little dizzy with this disturbance I know it has been awhile and I am prepared incase but I have never seen this uncertainty before that I can remember

Should Naples be concerned thanks and I am enjoying all the banter and the pro-mets too

[HurriGuy]

I am going to keep hammering this home until everyone sees it.

The upper high forecasted to be over the Gulf is going to be the biggest factor.

[JabNOLA]

OK... Just an outside in observation.
Since the "common sense" model is not registered I post my thoughts here.

Looking at water vapor, vorticisity, flow and mimic I believe development possibilities of 99L are finished as depicted in the mainstream models. Almost like a wave crashing on a beach.

It is possible that development can occur when vorticisity, moisture and that allusive upper high all meet in the fuel tank, NW Caribbean. Maybe that will still be labled 99L and maybe we'll have something to talk about.

Please see the above disclaimer.

[galaxy401]

Hispaniola can destroy tropical systems even if the storm's circulation avoids the island. Had a feeling that would happen.

[Sanibel]

From the looks of it there is cross-shear at 2 levels. Usually spells doom to system.