ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

It will be interesting to see if 99L can reboot itself in the Bahamas over the next couple of days. While the small swirl from yesterday appears to be toast after having darted west into Cuba, there is still a wave axis approaching the SE Bahamas. Back when I was a kid in the 80's in FL, waves like this passed by without developing all the time. You really didn't whip out the tracking charts until a depression formed. Today, they declare "Invests" on these waves, which hypes people up before storms even form; enthusiasts can access all kinds of model output, which is nice, but can lead to a lot of angst before there is anything to track. I guess you can't put the genie back in the bottle.

[wxman57]

Visible satellite indicates a little swirl up near 23.4N/74.7W.

[OuterBanker]

Oh well. GFS and EURO flip flopping again. Except the EURO now has the GFS solution and the GFS has the EURO solution.

What is obvious is that both models need a lot of work.

And that mother nature will have the last laugh.

[N2FSU]

Am I crazy to suggest it almost looks better this morning? Not from a convection sense, but vorticity seems better and looks to be further N or NW from Hispanola to where it's not affecting it as much. I don't know, it just seems to have that "look" like it COULD spin up something as it enters the SE Bahamas. Or maybe I'm just sleep deprived.

[cajungal]

I just remember Erika last year. Was forecasted to strengthen in the gulf and hit Louisiana. I went get supplies and then she fizzled. I have a feeling the same thing will happen with 99 L. But I guess it is always good to be prepared just in case.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

[rolltide]

Looks like there is some convection starting to build just north of eastern Cuba. I'll be watching to see if this continues. Something might try to organize if it does. After all it is still a pretty strong wave.

[La Sirena]

Am I crazy to suggest it almost looks better this morning? Not from a convection sense, but vorticity seems better and looks to be further N or NW from Hispanola to where it's not affecting it as much. I don't know, it just seems to have that "look" like it COULD spin up something as it enters the SE Bahamas. Or maybe I'm just sleep deprived.

It seems to me to look better in the last hour. I wonder if the shear is going to let up enough for it to build? I know it's the million dollar question. Just think you can't discount those over the top SST if this system gets a break.

[TropicalSailor]

I'm surprised they cancelled the next Recon flight. Now is the time they need to be in there instead of yesterday.

[rolltide]

on visible sat this morning there seems to be some turning around 22 N and 74 W with convection building.

[N2FSU]

on visible sat this morning there seems to be some turning around 22 N and 74 W with convection building.

I think that's the area wxman57 noted also.

[sunnyday]

S Fla radio guy just told the listeners that those In SE Florida "have dodged another bullet."
I'm concerned about those in the Gulf who may not be so fortunate.

[La Sirena]

I'm surprised they cancelled the next Recon flight. Now is the time they need to be in there instead of yesterday.

I'm thinking they are taking a "wait and see" approach. Should this start to spin up in the Bahamas then they will send them out, perhaps?

['CaneFreak]

Watch for what will soon be Hermine, "the soldier", to arise from the ashes today. The 20-30 knot shear axis is moving out and recon has been canceled for today. Folks in FL need to remain alert and vigilant. Convection is blossoming and will blossom rather quickly now that the shear axis is moving out and the disturbance is not moving. There is good vorticity down there in the mid and lower levels that has become tilted due to the days of shear but you can tell from satellite that there is some restructuring going on now. Watch for the mid and low level centers to come back together today. Humpty dumpty is getting put back together today and this thing is going to be over 90 degree water and low shear very soon. Surprise!

[shortwave]

question for pro mets or anyone that may know, there is a very thin line of convection all the way from 17N just east of Jamaica that does an inverted S up to 23N. Before it disappears was wondering what that is/indicates?

[Bhuggs]

Hey everyone, I've been a lurker this season and decided to post. I have absolutely zero education when it comes to meteorology, but the tropics were a large part of my childhood and now my adult life. My father was a catastrophe insurance adjuster beginning with hurricane Hugo. We grew up watching the weather channel to see if dad was going to have go work a hurricane for 6 months. I spent my summers in Florida, or Puerto Rico, or numerous other gulf states. I myself am now an insurance adjuster and if a catastrophe strikes, I will have to leave my family for months and work to get peoples life's back together. It's not a fun job, but it's necessary. It's living in a hotel 100 miles away from the badly hit area, working 7 days a week 15 hour days.

With all that being a way too long precursor, I am not done watching this disturbance. All I know is that there have been so many times where the "sure thing" didn't lead to anything. And equal amounts of time where my dad went from being home with no idea of leaving to driving to the gulf 2 days later. If this thing gets into the gulf, I will begin my own preps of making sure my gear is ready to go. I am also going to make sure I spend plenty of quality time with my family this weekend. And if nothing comes from this, we have had plenty of hail here in Nebraska to keep me busy.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Tropical wave in the southwest Atlantic/north Caribbean extends
from 26N72W through a weak 1009 mb low near 21N75W to 17N76W
moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is embedded
within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of 23N between 68W and the wave axis and
from 23N-25N between 68W-70W.

[StrongWind]

What's the longest an invest has gone before being named or fizzling out?

[Janie2006]

Invests have long been a staple of tropical meteorology and NHC jargon. It's the advent of social media, the 24/7 news cycle, and the 5-minute attention span that has produced the present tempests-in-the-teapot. I've seen a lot of hysteria on social media and rubbish clickbait over poor old 99L.

Meanwhile, the old hands have always known that systems like this take a long time to start cooking, but when (or if) they do it's hard to kill them. It ain't over til it's over, but I'm no clickbait artist either.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.