ATL: HERMINE - Models

[drezee]

So GFS, you spilt 99L into two pieces (look at the 850 vorts). You take one into the Yucatan and the other to FL. You also have Ex-Fiona create a weakness in the ridge to pull it N...What the...

[RL3AO]

Massive shift with Gaston over the past two runs from the GFS. Unless we have evidence where that could happen, I don't know how much stock to put into it for 99L (I'm leaning towards 0).

[LarryWx]

I estimate that the 12Z GFS initialized the center of 99L about 100 miles too far west fwiw based on visible satellite images that showed it then to be a little ESE of Anguilla. Note that the 12Z GFS initialized it about 75 miles WSW of Anguilla instead of a little ESE of it.

[centuryv58]

Looking at the upper level maps, I see what the GFS thinks - it senses a weak extension of the ridge will build westward into the Gulf, which would force 99L/Hermine to stall out near Florida. Not that I buy it (and believe it would be stronger anyway) but at least it is a bit sensible.

Seems not to make sense to me. Chases Gaston out to sea off North Carolina.

[Kingarabian]

I always put money on the EURO when it comes to mid range set ups. the 0Z was quite telling and the 12Z later should help with some clarity....big Rita type storm rolling over the LC...nice

Welcome back. It's been a while.

GFS 12Z hour 216:

[Alyono]

UKMET shifted east big time to the Big Bend area

HOWEVER, BS FLAG

It forms a second system in the western Gulf

[mcheer23]

Doesn't the ukmet run off of euro

[ROCK]

been lurking....EURO seems to sniff out radical changes fairly well in the mid range ie IKE which is why I see something like the 0Z I take notice. Now if the EURO becomes consistent run after run watch the other global models follow as well..just my observation since I have been here....

[RL3AO]

Doesn't the ukmet run off of euro

No. They're separate models. However, the proximity to the ECMWF (people, resources, etc) may explain why its arguably the 2nd best global model in the world right now.

[ROCK]

NAM shows a depression in the WGOM as well as you pointed out earlier...lol

[BucMan2]

Where can the UKMET be found for viewing?

[Bocadude85]

HWRF looses this at 27 hours... does make one wonder if the GFS could be right with all of this?

[stormlover2013]

not supposed to form till friday-saturday

[StormHunter72]

Either the GFS is about to score a "Sandy" like Euro coup or they need to look at the physics again...

Debby. nuff said

[StormHunter72]

I always put money on the EURO when it comes to mid range set ups. the 0Z was quite telling and the 12Z later should help with some clarity....big Rita type storm rolling over the LC...nice

first off gfs nailed debby your latter comment speaks for itself.

[shah83]

Is that WGulf depression in NAM/UKMET from ex-Fiona?

[BobHarlem]

Either the GFS is about to score a "Sandy" like Euro coup or they need to look at the physics again...

Debby. nuff said

How has the GFS done so far with 99L?

[gatorcane]

HWRF looses this at 27 hours... does make one wonder if the GFS could be right with all of this?

HWRF has it moving through Northern Hispaniola but that doesn't seem likely looking at the movement of 99L at this time.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF looses this at 27 hours... does make one wonder if the GFS could be right with all of this?

This 12z run of the HWRF is all over the place. At 39 hours it appears that it centers basically nothing south of Hispaniola.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC has 99L only as a weak low hitting S FL late on 8/28 followed by a strengthening to solid TS strength and a hit on the far western FL panhandle late on 8/30.