ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

The date is wrong but the info is up to date (I think):

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical wave along 46W from 4N-17N with a 1010 mb low along the
wave near 9N46W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is beginning to show signs of organization and now has a
high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb low and trough in the
global model and is embedded within an area of moisture with dry
air and Saharan dust to the north. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 9N-15N between
42W-52W. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread
over the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...

[northjaxpro]

Still lots of time and still many variables to try to predict where this thing is going to go, especially beyond five days after it gets into the Caribbean . I know one thing for sure future Matthew is going to be one large and dangerous hurricane once it gets into the Caribbean and I really hope everyone is preparing down in the Caribbean.

[Rail Dawg]

that would be really great. I appreciated you doing that during Hermine for all of us.

Thanks. I really enjoyed doing that.

Within about 90 minutes of filming I had it uploaded here.

Appreciate the words.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Martinica due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms, strong winds and dangerous seas.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... inique.pdf

[cycloneye]

Must see video by Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780528405112578048

[NWFL56]

Passing through SE Fl today, I happened to catch a local TV met showing a visual of the storm going directly north many, many miles east of S. Fla, and he said the storm is not going anywhere close to that area and won't be a threat there. I guess he can predict more than 10 days in advance and be accurate in doing it. I thought nothing was set in stone yet....
Is he correct?

Maybe not....and therein lies the problem.

[jlauderdal]

Must see video by Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780528405112578048

excellent video as usual by Levi..just about everything you need to know about the various players..72h is about as far out as we can go with any certainty on track

[perk]

Must see video by Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780528405112578048

A voice of reason.

[blp]

Must see video by Levi.

[tt]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780528405112578048[/tweet]

excellent video as usual by Levi..just about everything you need to know about the various players..72h is about as far out as we can go with any certainty on track

Yeah agree. This one is very complicated.

[CDO62]

Must see video by Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780528405112578048

Great explanation of the setup. Going to be an interesting couple of days coming up.

[Medtronic15]

Dvorak T Numbers?

Best Track?

[cycloneye]

Dvorak T Numbers?

Best Track?

Those come after 8 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

80%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over
the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[abajan]

[Gustywind]

46W?? while the last 805 AM was at 46W too . Anyone notice that? Maybe a mistake i'm suprised...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical wave along 46W from 4N-17N with a 1010 mb low along the
wave near 9N46W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is beginning to show signs of organization and now has a
high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb low and trough in the
global model and is embedded within an area of moisture with dry
air and Saharan dust to the north. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 9N-15N between
42W-52W. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread
over the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

[abajan]

46W?? while the last 805 AM was at 46W too . Anyone notice that? Maybe a mistake i'm suprised...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical wave along 46W from 4N-17N with a 1010 mb low along the
wave near 9N46W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is beginning to show signs of organization and now has a
high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb low and trough in the
global model and is embedded within an area of moisture with dry
air and Saharan dust to the north. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 9N-15N between
42W-52W. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread
over the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

Yeah, I noticed it too. Something's wrong with the TWD updates. Not sure what's going on.

[Gustywind]

46W?? while the last 805 AM was at 46W too . Anyone notice that? Maybe a mistake i'm suprised...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical wave along 46W from 4N-17N with a 1010 mb low along the
wave near 9N46W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave is beginning to show signs of organization and now has a
high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb low and trough in the
global model and is embedded within an area of moisture with dry
air and Saharan dust to the north. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 9N-15N between
42W-52W. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread
over the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

Yeah, I noticed it too. Something's wrong with the TWD updates. Not sure what's going on.

Ok i'm not alone! Absolutely , you're definitely right about that. That's very surprising, are they too much focus on the TWO ?

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=10&lon=-50&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=13&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[Gustywind]

From SSD... maintains 1.0 numbers while seems a bit more north in latitude...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 97L

[Blown Away]

8 PM


2 PM

Just an observation, NHC dropped their 8pm cone a little farther S into SA and increased the forward speed compared to 2pm... Maybe Southerly Euro idea is what NHC going with for now...