ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I guess looking at the GFS it does show that shear lowers today and increases again in a couple days when it's near Florida. However, if the system organizes a little more, it might be able to fight off the shear from that cutoff low in a few days.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/769181686487740416

[Steve]

This is easily the greatest invest of all times.

[tolakram]

Mark, what exactly does this shear map mean? Does it mean conditions will be more favorable than what the GFS showed?

It's a simple observation that shear in the area has dropped from 25kts+ to 20 or less. You can step through the 3 hour increments at that source page and see the change. Shear is only one variable to favorable conditions.

[Javlin]

GFS still seems to keep it sheared with westerly flow aloft due to the upper low that it correctly predicted compared to the Euro. It's the small things like the cutoff low near the east coast and the upper level anti-cyclone getting pushed into the N Caribbean where the GFS has beat the Euro so far.

I can't see it happening only see the one bee lining W along the NGOM and the one moving under Gaston if I am reading the WV tight high is moving in from the ATl but high pressure I have never been able to see well so instruct me ...Please

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[centuryv58]

This is easily the greatest invest of all times.

Having watching that loop last night, I agree!!

[RL3AO]

[GeneratorPower]

Awhile back, Wxman57 suggested that the low-level swirls are meaningless, and that the place to watch is under the convection. Interesting because the convection continues to increase around a "center" but the low-level swirl is trucking it off to the NW. It looks like the convection, though, is nearly stationary.

[Aric Dunn]

Awhile back, Wxman57 suggested that the low-level swirls are meaningless, and that the place to watch is under the convection. Interesting because the convection continues to increase around a "center" but the low-level swirl is trucking it off to the NW. It looks like the convection, though, is nearly stationary.

thats just an eddy they happen all the time. not the center.

[deltadog03]

Notice how the clouds where getting blown off in the early part of loop, but now no more

[tropicwatch]

Interestingly that low level swirl is in the general vicinity of the of 200mb vorticity.

[Aric Dunn]

Price how the clouds where getting blown off in the early part of loop, but now no more

yeah, corresponded to increased convection and the low level structure is becoming more circular with clear westerly inflow for the first time.

[GeneratorPower]

Price how the clouds where getting blown off in the early part of loop, but now no more

yeah, corresponded to increased convection and the low level structure is becoming more circular with clear westerly inflow for the first time.

What do you guys think about movement of the system overall? Does it look like it's moving slowly to you?

[deltadog03]

Price how the clouds where getting blown off in the early part of loop, but now no more

yeah, corresponded to increased convection and the low level structure is becoming more circular with clear westerly inflow for the first time.

Agreed. Maybe it will give it a go today.

[AdamFirst]

Totally amateur, non-scientific analysis:

[Aric Dunn]

Price how the clouds where getting blown off in the early part of loop, but now no more

yeah, corresponded to increased convection and the low level structure is becoming more circular with clear westerly inflow for the first time.

What do you guys think about movement of the system overall? Does it look like it's moving slowly to you?

very slowly. often times during the surface circ development phase you will see what appears to be a stall or lag in the motion. this due to angular momentum and a few other things. it will start moving as soon as a well defined surface circulation is established so by later today it should start to move.

[Nimbus]

So the consensus is that the area the convection is bombing out may reestablish a low level feature?
Its either creating new low level eddies or that eddy was near the windward passage this morning and is looping around.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If that is the LLC then we might just finally be cookin' with gas. These tend to slow when they are organizing. Lets see in a couple of hours what the trend is

[Bocadude85]

Looks like you guys in the GOM will need to keep a close eye on this... I don't think it has enough time to do much of anything before passing though S.Fla

[PTrackerLA]

This is easily the greatest invest of all times.

And if you believe the GFS we have another 8 days of watching it just in the Gulf!