ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Steve]

It is slightly SW of yesterday's 12z position, and everything else is mostly the same on the continent. The low is weaker however and at 1002 on the low resolution vs. 994 yesterday. This could be a tip of FL hit (FL City/Keys) or it might still go into Miami-Dade County.

At 120 it's 998mb and just north of Key West vs. 978mb and SW of Sarasota. So Euro is slightly slower and weaker so far.

[Frank P]

Its 996 Steve at 120 hours

[ronjon]

12z ECM slowing it down from 4 to 5 days - 996 mb off Naples on low resolution.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016082412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=364

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 144 Hours... Sharp NW Turn Into EGOM/Tampa Landfall Maybe... Getting Stronger... Forward Speed A Little Slower Than 00z... Big Swing...

[PTrackerLA]

Big shift east this run looking like it may be riding up the west coast of Florida at 144hrs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ouch, Tampa Bay and points north. Big shift east from the Euro.

[BobHarlem]

Hello Tampa Bay storm surge...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

BIG TURN at 144!

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z ECM slowing it down from 4 to 5 days - 996 mb off Naples on low resolution.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016082412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=364

144 recurve into Tampa..

[Javlin]

Well in 12hrs we did a wiper from TX/LA to Tampa in 144hrsb
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=342

[Hammy]

And here we are 120hrs, it's about to get ugly folks on this run. This will make 5 runs in a row of the Euro with a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

Nope, Cat 1 (or lower) up the west coast of Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

Very large shift for the ECMWF, and looking similar to the 12z run from the 22nd.

[PTrackerLA]

And here we are 120hrs, it's about to get ugly folks on this run. This will make 5 runs in a row of the Euro with a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

Nope, Cat 1 (or lower) up the west coast of Florida.

Yep did not see this sharp turn coming. Guess ridging is breaking down rapidly this run. So much for consistency in the Euro...

987mb at 150hrs...

[mcheer23]

Not buying such a big northward turn yet.

[Steve]

Its 996 Steve at 120 hours

Thanks. I need glasses but have resisted so far. That's a big shift toward the general consensus. Maybe it moves a little farther one way or the other tonight?

[Hammy]

And here we are 120hrs, it's about to get ugly folks on this run. This will make 5 runs in a row of the Euro with a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

Nope, Cat 1 (or lower) up the west coast of Florida.

Yep did not see this sharp turn coming. Guess ridging is breaking down rapidly this run. So much for consistency in the Euro...

I've been saying for the last few years that the models are basically worthless beyond 72 hours unless there's an actual developed system. Could the turn north be from the low that seems to have formed off Texas on this run?

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing an awful lot of chaff on here despite everyone -- for days -- being asked kindly, asked repeatedly, then being warned. If you're post is no longer visible, it met the definition and has been deleted.

[PTrackerLA]

983mb at 156hrs looks to be making landfall in the big bend of Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Nope, Cat 1 (or lower) up the west coast of Florida.

Yep did not see this sharp turn coming. Guess ridging is breaking down rapidly this run. So much for consistency in the Euro...

I've been saying for the last few years that the models are basically worthless beyond 72 hours unless there's an actual developed system. Could the turn north be from the low that seems to have formed off Texas on this run?

A weak low like that shouldn't cause a northward turn so sharp.

[txwatcher91]

Euro made a shift towards the GFS solution with a slower and weaker storm. GFS rides the system up the east coast of FL whereas Euro brings it up the west coast. If Euro slows it down a little more it would ride up the eastern coast of FL. All this to say that anyone in the GOM or along the East Coast (and Bahamas) need to keep a close eye on this.