ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

The GFS is undermining the forward speed of the Upper Level Low over Florida. The low is already starting to round the ridge in the last few frames on water vapor loop. GFS didn't start that motion until sometime between 18z and 00z. While that ULL has no affect on 99L, it will be the small things in the upper air pattern that make all the difference.

['CaneFreak]

Don't be so sure. It is going to be moving slowly over 90 degree water and low shear. Anything can happen. You better be prepared.

Looks like you guys in the GOM will need to keep a close eye on this... I don't think it has enough time to do much of anything before passing though S.Fla

[AutoPenalti]

It's slowing down, so it has more time to intensify.

[Aric Dunn]

So the consensus is that the area the convection is bombing out may reestablish a low level feature?
Its either creating new low level eddies or that eddy was near the windward passage this morning and is looping around.

I think it was more due to the east side of the wave axis moving into the winward passage and allowing the southerly inflow to come screaming through it while the northerly flow was getting bunched up as it ran into cuba essentially the top half of the wave keeled over and produced a low level circ/convergence zone and convection fired and now we have a developing LLC and system. still have to see if convection can maintain but it appears to be on its way.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its amazing how the shear just...stopped. Didnt ease up...just stopped

[HurriGuy]

And actually according to the GFS, the developing ULL to the north of the wave axis is eventually supposed to start feeding off the energy from the ULL over Florida bringing back the wind sheer when it supposedly lets off. So if the ULL over Florida is already starting to round the ridge and the developing ULL north of the wave axis is not as defined, that will change sheer forecasts.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is still a lot of scattered energy that this needs to bundle...which sounds just like the discussion we had about Joaquin...was very scattered but when it was able to bundle the energy and consolidate it did so very quickly

[chaser1]

Its amazing how the shear just...stopped. Didnt ease up...just stopped

The upper level shear may have relaxed a little but there a westerlly component is still evident

[BucMan2]

To say that it may not have enough time to intensify before S FL is very premature- I remember Charley in 2004 went from a Cat 1 to a get 4 in 3 hours-
Granted it had an establish system to work with but one never knows- and like what was said, it hardly moving with conditions supposedly improving for development.

[BobHarlem]

The convection isn't blowing away this time and is starting to creep into the northeast sector, if it keeps going like it is it'll be wrapped around by tonight. Ye olde "persistence is the key" bit.

[AdamFirst]

To say that it may not have enough time to intensify before S FL is very premature- I remember Charley in 2004 went from a Cat 1 to a get 4 in 3 hours-
Granted it had an establish system to work with but one never knows- and like what was said, it hardly moving with conditions supposedly improving for development.

Also let's not forget Humberto in 2007 off the Texas coast...from unnamed low to category 1 hurricane in 30~ hours.

[NJWxHurricane]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

[txwatcher91]

The RGEM had this organizing quickly tonight into Saturday, starting it out as a disorganized mess but then at the end of its 06z run drops the pressure to 996mb. Perhaps it is picking up on the better environment in place..

[chris_fit]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

[TropicalSailor]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

I'm sorry but this thing is not dead. NHC made that call based on information they had at the time. This is a very fluid situation.

[mobilebay]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

Lol. Now this is how you fold a tent properly.

[windnrain]

30%? NHC still shows 60%.

[NJWxHurricane]

The RGEM had this organizing quickly tonight into Saturday, starting it out as a disorganized mess but then at the end of its 06z run drops the pressure to 996mb. Perhaps it is picking up on the better environment in place..

RGEM has this riding the Eastern Floridan coast.. up into SC, highly doubt that happens.

[chris_fit]

To say that it may not have enough time to intensify before S FL is very premature- I remember Charley in 2004 went from a Cat 1 to a get 4 in 3 hours-
Granted it had an establish system to work with but one never knows- and like what was said, it hardly moving with conditions supposedly improving for development.

Also let's not forget Humberto in 2007 off the Texas coast...from unnamed low to category 1 hurricane in 30~ hours.

Also Patricia in the EPAC last year.....

[Aric Dunn]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

I'm sorry but this thing is not dead. NHC made that call based on information they had at the time. This is a very fluid situation.

hehe.. "fluid Situation" soooo true because the atmosphere is a FLUID :p