ATL: HERMINE - Models

[stormlover2013]

yep, no dount!! still alot of time....will keep changing

[Stormcenter]

Can we all agree the models are completely clueless right now? IMO

So much for bashing the GFS and others for not agreeing with the EURO.

[rockyman]

Moving into the Big Bend from the SSE (instead of SW) seems very suspect to me.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 168 Hours... N Turn And Landfall @Appalachicola... Wow, Big Swing From 00z...

[TheStormExpert]

168hrs. landfall in eastern Florida Panhandle @ 985mb.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wonder if the continuous land interaction is why this never becomes a cane?

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[Hammy]

The Euro seems intent on ending Florida's hurricane drought one way or another--if it's too weak on the east coast, just shove it into the Panhandle.

[stormlover2013]

models like always struggling with how strong the ridge will be and etc......long nights ahead

[chaser1]

Boy, talk about this storm taking the Florida scenic route?? Into Miami and moving slowly west just off the S.W. coastline, only to slowly move NNW right off shore and strengthening all the way up and into Tallahassee as a 986 Cat. 1 hurricane?

[ronjon]

The 500 mb high over the carolinas rapidly decays from 5-6 days out - the big reason for the track shift. Still - the ECM has been very consistent up through 120 hours getting the storm to S FL. Not surprised we see big swings 6 days out.

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone know what keeps this from ramping up more in the Bahamas prior to striking extreme SE Florida on the 12z Euro?

[ronjon]

Wonder if the continuous land interaction is why this never becomes a cane?

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What do you mean? iI's a CAT 1 off Naples and from thereafter.

[TheStormExpert]

Boy, talk about this storm taking the Florida scenic route?? Into Miami and moving slowly west just off the S.W. coastline, only to slowly move NNW right off shore and strengthening all the way up and into Tallahassee as a 986 Cat. 1 hurricane?

Worst case scenario IMO as it would hug the west coast with the E and NE quadrants.

[jlauderdal]

Can we all agree the models are completely clueless right now? IMO

So much for bashing the GFS and others for not agreeing with the EURO.

the euro could come back to its westward solution on the next run, lets see...either way the modeling has been suspect at best..at this point we have vigorous wave with potential and that's it. Its tough to make hurricanes when you are in a drought and that's what it has been for years now.

[chaser1]

Wonder if the continuous land interaction is why this never becomes a cane?

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At least per this Euro 12 run, this would be a hurricane at landfall. Too hard to tell whether it'll be a few millibars lower or higher but very easily come in as a Cat. 2. Right now that could be a gift relative to the disaster that would unfold if stronger or worse yet .... stronger and further west. This is FAR from being sealed in stone though and plenty of anxious waiting and seeing.

[Blown Away]

Can we all agree the models are completely clueless right now? IMO

So much for bashing the GFS and others for not agreeing with the EURO.

the euro could come back to its westward solution on the next run, lets see...either way the modeling has been suspect at best..at this point we have vigorous wave with potential and that's it. Its tough to make hurricanes when you are in a drought and that's what it has been for years now.

Never underestimate the "Magic Trap Door"...

[Javlin]

It looks like all the models are breaking down the ridge and build it back by 9/2(GFS) including the JMA,MAVGEM and the Euro

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=312

interesting feature W Coast

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=342

[chaser1]

So look, at 192 hours the EURO moving the storm over S. Georgia and back toward the east, even takes a little swipe with its right front quadrant at some of you folk up in Jax! Looks like Hermine's tryin' to share the love.

[ronjon]

LOL - when can you say the NAVGEM and ECM are showing identical forecasts?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016082412&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=195

[chaser1]

This system seems to have an affinity for land. At 216 hours is just off shore southern N. Carolina looking poised to ride NNE along the coastline. How warm are those SST's up there along the mid-Atlantic coast right now??