ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Janie2006]

Hrmmmm. I don't like this. I don't like the predicted shear values from the Bahamas into the Gulf and I sure don't like the convection building. Good for little invest engines, bad for my pocketbook. And probably my nerves depending on what's next.

[chris_fit]

Anyone know where to find some surface obs from the Acklins/Crooked Islands? Would be curious to see what conditions they are experiencing right now, and where the winds are coming from.

[NJWxHurricane]

My fault for posting that.. Just a bit frustrated with this system, it has favorable conditions going ahead. Gotta see if it fires up some convection.

[bg1]

I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.

I had the same thought, except I was thinking about the disturbance in the Western Gulf.

No wonder 99L has been holding back, it wants to be an I storm.

[Texashawk]

[img ]http://i932.photobucket.com/albums/ad169/TWacAusDemHaus/something-is-happening.png[/img]

[JaxGator]

My fault for posting that.. Just a bit frustrated with this system, it has favorable conditions going ahead. Gitta see if it fires up some convention.

It is and expanding too.

[psyclone]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

You're cooking the books to make your case (mixing short term and long term development chances)...that sort of stuff won't fly in here. the long term odds were lowered from 80% to 60%...not 30%.

[txwatcher91]

The RGEM had this organizing quickly tonight into Saturday, starting it out as a disorganized mess but then at the end of its 06z run drops the pressure to 996mb. Perhaps it is picking up on the better environment in place..

RGEM has this riding the Eastern Floridan coast.. up into SC, highly doubt that happens.

While not likely it is a possibility to be considered. Other models in recent days have hinted at this and a stronger storm would be more likely to find any weakness in the ridge as it breaks down. A weaker system will be more likely to traverse either south Florida or into the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

12 gfs develops is less than 18 hours now..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its amazing how the shear just...stopped. Didnt ease up...just stopped

The upper level shear may have relaxed a little but there a westerlly component is still evident

The new convection blowing up is diverting it to the north when it gets to it. Might be a sign of an outflow channel but a little premature to make that call.

[NJWxHurricane]

nhc lowered this thing down to 30% for development. From 80% to 30%. It's dead, Jim. No low level low. GFS out schooled the euro intensity wise.

You're cooking the books to make your case (mixing short term and long term development chances)...that sort of stuff won't fly in here. the long term odds were lowered from 80% to 60%...not 30%.

Sir, I was referring to short term chances.

[stormlover2013]

everything I gathered from all the pros, stronger system goes more into the gom........

[MGC]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

[Bocadude85]

To say that it may not have enough time to intensify before S FL is very premature- I remember Charley in 2004 went from a Cat 1 to a get 4 in 3 hours-
Granted it had an establish system to work with but one never knows- and like what was said, it hardly moving with conditions supposedly improving for development.

Im not saying it can't happen but conditions are far from ideal currently. 12z GFS though 24 hours says nada

[Aric Dunn]

Its amazing how the shear just...stopped. Didnt ease up...just stopped

The upper level shear may have relaxed a little but there a westerlly component is still evident

The new convection blowing up is diverting it to the north when it gets to it. Might be a sign of an outflow channel but a little premature to make that call.

was just about to mention the new convection. it started to rotate around and build west on the north end. also seeing some hints of a band developing on the west side. few more hours and we will know

[JaxGator]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

Except the shear has dropped a good bit in the last few hours or so.

[psyclone]

For the NHC to maintain 60% odds is saying something. they clearly see respectable potential here, even if somewhat lower than before.

[chris_fit]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

What naked spin? The eddy approaching Long Island Bahama? You are looking at the wrong thing.... check on the SW tip of Crooked Island.

[Christiana]

I am going to post this and then go back to lurking as I have nothing of substance to add to the discussion. I just wanted to thank all the Mods and Pro-Mets specifically for sharing their insights and keeping this discussion topic and the corresponding Models thread pretty much on track. As someone who is honestly nervous and anxious during times like this when I feel there is even a chance of a threat it is truly helpful to have some insight and discussion to turn to. Knowledge is comforting and can take the edge off considerably. I have weathered many storms and felt the pain of loss of life of family and friends due to storm surge and also lost my home, livelihood and all belongings to the monsters Hurricanes can become and the deep misery they can bring. I take all threats seriously and would rather be prepared and not have a situation develop than to be caught unprepared and possibly putting myself and loved ones at any kind of risk. So, thanks again to all who add valuable analysis, keep the conversations somewhat focused, and even throw in the occasional LOL moment. I will be following these threads until this thing is history, one way or another.

[MississippiWx]

ULL is developing to the east of Bahamas, not far from 99L. Doubt the shear starts to relax any time soon. I doubt the naked spin is going to do much. Dry air and shear still. Might do something in the Gulf....MGC

If convection can persist, it will fight off the weak upper level cyclonic flow. If convection is not able to persist, the upper level cyclonic flow will strengthen and continue the shear in the area. Right now, convection is winning. Must persist, though.