ATL: HERMINE - Models

[chaser1]

LOL - when can you say the NAVGEM and ECM are showing identical forecasts?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016082412&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=195

Okay, now that is a bit weird. By the way, on the topic of weird did anyone notice the NAM with a 997mb at 84hrs. at Miami's latitude but well east of the N. Bahamas??

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768521801563537412

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This system seems to have an affinity for land. At 216 hours is just off shore southern N. Carolina looking poised to ride NNE along the coastline. How warm are those SST's up there along the mid-Atlantic coast right now??

Ask and ye shall receive.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sst/

[deltadog03]

Live now if y'all want to ask questions
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[Blown Away]

18z... Big Shift...


18z...

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768521801563537412

Excellent point. Bottom line is, we have yet to even have a classified T.D. The potential exist for anything from a tropical wave to a hurricane to make eventual landfall over or near S. Florida. The potential "threat zone" for a potentially dangerous outcome still lies anywhere from S.E. Texas to the Fla. panhandle. Or.... 99L could potentially fizzle out and never develop. That much uncertainty though makes one take pause and really have to consider how much more advanced are we regarding forecasting tropical cyclone genesis and potential track scenarios.

[chaser1]

Wow, looking at that 18Z intensity forecast, thats a significantly slower and also lower forecasts all around.

[chaser1]

This system seems to have an affinity for land. At 216 hours is just off shore southern N. Carolina looking poised to ride NNE along the coastline. How warm are those SST's up there along the mid-Atlantic coast right now??

Ask and ye shall receive.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sst/

Well thank you! SST' anomolies pretty warm up there towards Long Island. Hopefull this system will swing out and to the east instead.

[chaser1]

Live now if y'all want to ask questions
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

Thank you!! The offer swings both ways

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET weaker into SE Florida with what looks like a TS. Also HUGE shift east in the Gulf as Alyono pointed out earlier:

[TheStormExpert]

Trend looking weaker for SE FL.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA is bullish for JMA standards. Note the sharp turn north into the weakness...animation of run below:

[weathaguyry]

Well thank you! SST' anomolies pretty warm up there towards Long Island. Hopefull this system will swing out and to the east instead.

Well, that would be a horrible situation if "Hermine" decided to take a ride up the coast and pay me a visit on Long Island, going through Sandy is more than enough of an experience for one lifetime, goodness, I can remember the moment when my heart sank and skipped a beat when water came gushing through my back door, ever since then I track anything that has even a small chance of coming toward us religiously

[hohnywx]

Trend looking weaker for SE FL.

One set of model runs does not = trend...if we see the same thing happen at 18z and 00z, then we could possibly say that.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to me as the main reason for the shifts in the models today is they all have Gaston going hundreds of miles west of yesterday's runs. Maybe that is what is weakening the ridging?

[tolakram]

Animated Euro 12Z run.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Animated Euro 12Z run.

Tampa

[SoupBone]

Looks to me as the main reason for the shifts in the models today is they all have Gaston going hundreds of miles west of yesterday's runs. Maybe that is what is weakening the ridging?

Hopefully this doesn't go against the rule of the models thread, but are larger systems capable of breaking down ridges? Wouldn't they just ride along the edge, feeling out any weakness?

[jason1912]

Well thank you! SST' anomolies pretty warm up there towards Long Island. Hopefull this system will swing out and to the east instead.

Well, that would be a horrible situation if "Hermine" decided to take a ride up the coast and pay me a visit on Long Island, going through Sandy is more than enough of an experience for one lifetime, goodness, I can remember the moment when my heart sank and skipped a beat when water came gushing through my back door, ever since then I track anything that has even a small chance of coming toward us religiously

If the 1938 hurricane hit the same area with the same intensity today......

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET track: