ATL: HERMINE - Models

[RL3AO]

GFS is really bringing the cut off low further southwest. It develops from the trough off the east coast.

[chris_fit]

18z GFS pretty much loses it in the gulf - nothing more than a typical summer downpour.

[hohnywx]

The GFS has been too consistent to ignore IMO. It's not as good as the euro, but it's also not that bad. It may be processing something that the euro isn't. Maybe that bit of info is rarely important but this time around it is. There's a LOT of data that these models need to process.

Consistent? It went from recurve on 12z to gulf on 18z. I don't think the word consistent can be used to describe any of the models with this disturbance.

[floridasun78]

i notice now alot Models not doing any thing with 99l have as strong ts only so picking up dry air and shear staying longer

[Kingarabian]

The GFS has been too consistent to ignore IMO. It's not as good as the euro, but it's also not that bad. It may be processing something that the euro isn't. Maybe that bit of info is rarely important but this time around it is. There's a LOT of data that these models need to process.

Consistent? It went from recurve on 12z to gulf on 18z. I don't think the word consistent can be used to describe any of the models with this disturbance.

Remember it's all about trends. And for the past 48 hours, it's been pretty consistent in showing 99l not developing, regardless of track.

[jasons2k]

Just keep in mind it's an invest, so by definition it's still an open wave. You can see by looking at satellite and water vapor, there are multiple vortices in different locations. It will still take a couple of days for it to gel. One thing to remember is that weaker systems in this region tend to either continue W/SW of the models, or it just gets sheared apart and constantly reforms to the NE. They rarely behave and follow the models until they close off. With that ridge, I think it will continue more on the left side of the guidance.

[La Breeze]

18z GFS pretty much loses it in the gulf - nothing more than a typical summer downpour.

We can hope for this scenario.

[Hammy]

I'm going to have to put my money on the GFS at this point, conditions seem to be doing nothing but getting worse at the moment. It seems the models under-estimated the shear this time.

[tolakram]

Consistent? It went from recurve on 12z to gulf on 18z. I don't think the word consistent can be used to describe any of the models with this disturbance.

Don't look for consistency in the long range, look for it in the shorter range. You can make trend graphics TT, I made one for each model below.





For 2 days the GFS has placed the vorticity in the same general area, sometimes stronger but always weak. The euro doesn't run as often but each run has varied not only location but intensity. If you are trying to forecast a Florida landfall, which model looks more trusting? The blend says south Florida and weak.

[hohnywx]

The GFS has been too consistent to ignore IMO. It's not as good as the euro, but it's also not that bad. It may be processing something that the euro isn't. Maybe that bit of info is rarely important but this time around it is. There's a LOT of data that these models need to process.

Consistent? It went from recurve on 12z to gulf on 18z. I don't think the word consistent can be used to describe any of the models with this disturbance.

Remember it's all about trends. And for the past 48 hours, it's been pretty consistent in showing 99l not developing, regardless of track.

If it shows it not developing on the 12z because of an ULL in the Atlantic and then shows it not developing on the 18z because of unfavorable conditions in the gulf, I don't think that makes it consistent.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Just keep in mind it's an invest, so by definition it's still an open wave. You can see by looking at satellite and water vapor, there are multiple vortices in different locations. It will still take a couple of days for it to gel. One thing to remember is that weaker systems in this region tend to either continue W/SW of the models, or it just gets sheared apart and constantly reforms to the NE. They rarely behave and follow the models until they close off. With that ridge, I think it will continue more on the left side of the guidance.

Very true..none of the models even develop this for another 36-96 hours so it's present appearance and complications should be expected

[BobHarlem]

18Z HWRF doesn't lose it this time (although comes close)

edit: never mind, dives it into Cuba.

edit#2: recovers it again a bit later... Is it being confused by multiple centers or something?

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF nada..

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z HWRF doesn't even fire one single convective burst over the vort max between now and the 54 hour forecast point, although it looks like it may be trying to start something at hour 60. We'll see if 99L remains convection-less for 54 hours...

[Kingarabian]

Consistent? It went from recurve on 12z to gulf on 18z. I don't think the word consistent can be used to describe any of the models with this disturbance.

Remember it's all about trends. And for the past 48 hours, it's been pretty consistent in showing 99l not developing, regardless of track.

If it shows it not developing on the 12z because of an ULL in the Atlantic and then shows it not developing on the 18z because of unfavorable conditions in the gulf, I don't think that makes it consistent.

But the solution that the GFS is showing of the environment not being favorable for development remains consistent, so to me that means it's been consistent. That's how I assess things when I monitor computer models. But I see were you are coming from.

[Blinhart]

My question is when will all the information from the Recon be ingested into the models the next one or the 12Z model? And if I remember correctly the 6Z and 18Z was suppose to be taken with a grain of salt, has that changed from the past seasons? Also were they doing dropsondes in the GoM to get a sample there also?

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z HWRF does NOT drop 99L:

photoupload

[WeatherOrKnot]

18z HWRF has 99L taking a scenic tour of Lake Okeechobee and South Florida.

[SFLcane]

Not much time for preps...

[hohnywx]

Not much time for preps

The time to prep is now...