ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

http://i65.tinypic.com/im2ykk.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Maybe an eddy, but never seen convection being pulled towards an eddy? @23N/74.5W...

Eddy.

Look due south - just south of Crooked Island. That's where a new center appears to be taking form. Look at the inflow.

[Bocadude85]

You know what sucks? I've already seen and spoke to people who believe that we no longer have a TS on the way.

This wave has roughly 700+ miles of warm waters to go through.

Its closer to 400-450 miles.

[Aric Dunn]

http://i65.tinypic.com/im2ykk.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Maybe an eddy, but never seen convection being pulled towards an eddy? @23N/74.5W...

That looks like the center to me. Could be wrong but I see what you are pointing out there.

look at the motion of it its dropping sw.. its rotating around a larger circ embedded within the convection. it will either rotate back into the convection over the next several hours or elongate and stretch out. either way whatever rotational energy it has will eventually be absorbed in the larger circ.

[StormHunter72]

:uarrow: Is that the center you are following Aric or is it closer to the convection?

looks like it is starting to get that look. Wonder where recon will find the center?

[TropicalSailor]

Here comes the HWRF and that's what I'm interested to see.

NNW movement thru 09Hr

[NDG]

Funny how the Central FL media is still stuck in the models from 12 hrs ago, their noon news update: "the Caribbean disturbance is looking like a less and less threat for central FL"

[psyclone]

I'm no pro but it still doesn't look like much to me. I'm not seeing inflow or banding...

[Aric Dunn]

a ship about 100 miles east of the center has a pressure of 1009mb...

[blp]

Here is what I am seeing based on the CIMSS maps. Still not stacked. The green circle circ looks like an eddy.

[txwatcher91]

a ship about 100 miles east of the center has a pressure of 1009mb...

It certainly is organizing quickly. Has a little bit of a curved signature and deep storms considering we are heading for DMIN. It usually is devoid of convection by now, overnight could prove very interesting.

[AdamFirst]

I took a nap after being up very late these past few nights for some odd reason. Didn't recon get rolled up for today? Is it back on the POD now? Or did I sleep until 2017's hurricane season - which is very possible considering how stressful this has been - just waiting for something to happen. Anyhow, is recon back on?

BTW - great to see Storm2k back in action with so many familiar folks coming in and contributing.

Good to see you as always, Mark!

Morning reconnaissance was cancelled, but the third flight of the day is still expected to roll out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

[artist]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80
have you seen this loop from the new GOES14 satellite test? Blake posted it. The clarity is amazing.

looks like from latest images the llc is beginning to organize under the deep convection. signs of westerly inflow and even a curved band starting to take shape.. by the time recon get there it should be well established.

[PTrackerLA]

Honestly this is the best 99L has looked in two days, shear is clearly dropping quickly we have to keep a close eye on this today.

[Aric Dunn]

every island should have a weather station.. so we can have obs ...

[AutoPenalti]

Would the LLC be tugged under the MLC or would it be vice versa? If it's the former, we are looking at a completely different situation...

[JaxGator]

Looks like on the last few frames of the Rainbow Loop that convection is stating to wrap around the center.

[drewschmaltz]

This is an awesome storm to follow. Wow. Yesterday at this time the swirl was naked. Today we are seeing the best day time convection yet. Dmax sure is going to change the narritave if it can sustain convection until that time.

[NDG]

I was just on the Cuban nat'l wx website, all 6 reporting stations in the Province of Guantanamo just to the south of 99L, are reporting SW & Westerly winds.

[wxman57]

Saw someone had tweeted high-res rapidscan loop link (below). I'm not following that little vortex so much as watching the convection build in one spot. That could be a sign it's finally starting to develop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-14_1_minute_visible_sector_02&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80

[SouthFLTropics]

My gut tells me that this thing isn't going to amount to much. While it may seem to present well on visible right now it also appears to have at least 3 or 4 multiple vorts rotating around in there. Too much competition IMHO to consolidate into anything. We've seen this many times before when something has multiple vorts and has trouble coming together.