ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Maybe an upgrade to TD sometime this afternoon.

Nah. It'll take a whole lot to get a TD/TS out of this within 36 hours.

[chaser1]

LOL, "beat me to the punch"!

[NDG]

99L is also taking a break from northerly mid level shear.

[gatorcane]

Fowey Rocks off Miami has NE winds and falling surface pressures over the last several days as would be expected with a system off to the SE.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[Tireman4]

Maybe an upgrade to TD sometime this afternoon.

Nah. It'll take a whole lot to get a TD/TS out of this within 36 hours.

Agreed. I was thinking 48 hours, but I see your point. This has a "whole lot of forming to do". It is on the right end of forming, as opposed to prior days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Sanibel]

Shows signs of maintaining energy while headed for prime formation waters in my opinion.


Disclaimer: Refer to professional weather sources for all serious tropical weather features.

[bamajammer4eva]

Still looks like colder cloud tops showing up and new stuff forming closer to the center despite being in the time of day when 99L has been having troubles.

[Patrick99]

You know what sucks? I've already seen and spoke to people who believe that we no longer have a TS on the way.

This wave has roughly 700+ miles of warm waters to go through.

I'm one of those people who wrote this off yesterday, completely. At least I read this forum.

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe an upgrade to TD sometime this afternoon.

Nah. It'll take a whole lot to get a TD/TS out of this within 36 hours.

I don't know about that... It's getting its act together rather quickly.

[alch97]

wHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THIS HEAD MORE NNW?

[tolakram]

I don't see anything in the visibles to suggest there is much of a low level circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

[caneman]

S Fla radio guy just told the listeners that those In SE Florida "have dodged another bullet."
I'm concerned about those in the Gulf who may not be so fortunate.

Yeah Mason Dixon said the same thing on Q105.

Jasons, you're obviously in the Tampa Bay area. I live around IRB. How about you?

[chris_fit]

Maybe an upgrade to TD sometime this afternoon.

Nah. It'll take a whole lot to get a TD/TS out of this within 36 hours.

I don't know about that... It's getting its act together rather quickly.

This. The ONLY Thing that is missing is recon confirmation, in my amatuer opinion, this might be a TD right now.

[JaxGator]

Ok, just looked at the latest NHC outlook and they increased it to 30-60%. However, they claim that hostile wind shear is still over the system. Did they look at the latest shear maps or is there something we're missing?

[Patrick99]

I see a circulation in that loop but a very broad one.

[BobHarlem]

Not a TD by any stretch, way too elongated. Anyway it was funny going back yesterday to read the "dead" posts, it never was expected to develop until tonight or tomorrow for the last few days. The NHC only raised the short term chance to 30% though, so they think it won't get going until the Gulf, which is reasonable. It has to start somewhere, and that it's attempting to do today.

[AdamFirst]

30/60% at 2 PM TWO

1. A weak area of low pressure is located between the northeastern
coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours, but
remains disorganized and is located mainly to the east and southeast
of the low. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable
for significant development during the next day or so while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. However,
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development early next week when the system approaches the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and
over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and
will likely spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida
Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[RL3AO]

Ok, just looked at the latest NHC outlook and they increased it to 30-60%. However, they claim that hostile wind shear is still over the system. Did they look at the latest shear maps or is there something we're missing?

It's still being sheared when you look at a satellite image. Remember those shear maps are derived not measured. Trust observations first.

[AutoPenalti]

We are roughly 12 hours away from DMAX and this is still getting its act together.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not sure its a TD yet, but what I have noticed in the last couple of hours is that most of the areas that were competing for energy have started to dissipate. This could aid 99L in firing its own convection since it is not having to compete to bundle the energy.