ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[toad strangler]

12z GFS very Hazelesque

[WeatherEmperor]

Keep in mind the Euro due North jump happened after 192hr truncation, less reliable portion. The Euro ensembles were further west. I think this run will switch again slightly more toward the ensembles.

What do u mean by 192hr truncation? Is that when the Euro's resolution goes to the lower resolution?


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[SeGaBob]

Better be careful here. Wild swings in models will burn you every time.

So true!

Except when they lock on to a recurve east of the U.S you can bank on it most of the time.

[Bocadude85]

Better be careful here. Wild swings in models will burn you every time.

So true!

Except when they lock on to a recurve you can bank on it most of the time.

The models have been showing a recurve for many runs, the only difference is how far west the system gets before recurving.

[toad strangler]

So true!

Except when they lock on to a recurve you can bank on it most of the time.

The models have been showing a recurve for many runs, the only difference is how far west the system gets before recurving.

Exactly.

[toad strangler]

Although the sudden due N turn is a new wrinkle to the recurve

[centuryv58]

Although the sudden due N turn is a new wrinkle to the recurve

Looks a bit bogus, I agree.

[Alyono]

What the models agree on is a hurricane near aruba moving very slowly. Massive flooding coming

[CrazyC83]

Although the sudden due N turn is a new wrinkle to the recurve

Looks a bit bogus, I agree.

If you look at the 500mb vorticity map it makes perfect sense though.

[tolakram]

Saying models lock onto something is kind of misunderstanding what's at play in my opinion. This isn't a typical trough situation but rather a cutoff low that the models are just now calculating will stick around for long enough to pull any hurricane north. I do think this is more complex than the typical situation so certainly worth keeping an eye on and not being surprised if there's some back and forth in the next few runs.

[OntarioEggplant]

Remember how the models shifted east of Florida with Hermine and how it never happened as Hermine kept moving further and further west?

[blp]

That is why I think we should be focusing more on the ensembles than the op run if you are looking past 192hrs.

[stormreader]

All interesting. But remember a ridge is forecast to be in place over the East US. That's the larger and more reliable part of the model forecast. Erosion of ridge is predicated on smaller scale feature ( cut-off low). Way, way too early to assume the truth of this feature in 5 days. I simply think we should look at this again in about 48 hrs (say Tues afternoon). At that point if models continue to make this forecast, then I think it becomes much more certain.

[Bocadude85]

Saying models lock onto something is kind of misunderstanding what's at play in my opinion. This isn't a typical trough situation but rather a cutoff low that the models are just now calculating will stick around for long enough to pull any hurricane north. I do think this is more complex than the typical situation so certainly worth keeping an eye on and not being surprised if there's some back and forth in the next few runs.

I agree completely. I think the models will continue to fluctuate a few hundred miles until settling in on the final outcome in a few days. I do see this as a significant threat to the Caribbean Islands and potentially Florida/Bahamas.

[RL3AO]

Cutoff lows are very difficult to forecast in the 5 to 7 day range and that appears to be a major feature for the future track of this system. Probably means we have less confidence than normal in the 5 to 10 day range.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems as the OP of the GFS is farthest south at 174 because its slower than the other ensembles

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[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM moving WNW to NW at 180 hours:

[tolakram]

Pretty decent agreement.

[gatorcane]

at 228 hours way too close for comfort for South Florida, wouldn't take much of a shift west to put most of those ensembles right over South Florida.

[gatorcane]

Also, note the group of ensembles south of Cuba that are slower and more SW that impact South Florida