ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

This could be quite a serious storm for Bermuda - depending on the location and how much it intensifies, as bad as or worse than Fabian if it rapidly deepens.

[CrazyC83]

How many Bermudans do we have on S2K? I agree this is a serious situation, and Bermuda always gets good webcams and observations.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Big improvement in 24hrs since i last looked at this storm when it was a sheared dry-air ridden TS, although now a cane the eyewall is looking thin on the SE on the sat-pic .

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-65&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[Aric Dunn]

pretty clear is been on a westward track all day..


now moving west of the forecast points again..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 66.6W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Nicole is
drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion toward
the northwest and north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by
a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed by late
Wednesday. A further increase in forward speed and a turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near
Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength by late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
by Wednesday evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern was quite impressive after the release of the
previous advisory, with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of cloud
tops of around -70C. However, by 00Z the eye was no longer apparent
in geostationary imagery, and the Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB were T4.5/77 kt. The eye has reappeared recently, but the
convective tops are a bit more ragged. The initial intensity is set
to 80 kt, between the subjective Dvorak estimates and the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT of around 90 kt.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
strengthening in the next 24 hours or so, with the cyclone over
28-29C waters and the shear 15 kt or less. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one during this time and is
above the consensus. The SHIPS model shows southwesterly shear
increasing to 45-50 kt by 48 hours, which should result in some
weakening. Nicole will interact with an upper-level trough in 3-4
days, but global model fields and the FSU phase space diagrams
suggest that Nicole won't complete extratropical transition when it
is left behind by the progressive trough by day 5. Therefore,
the NHC forecast shows Nicole as post-tropical at days 4 and 5, but
baroclinic forcing is expected to keep cyclone near hurricane
intensity through the end of the forecast period.

Nicole has moved little during the past few hours, as the cyclone is
caught in a region of weak steering currents. In fact, a slow
looping motion has been noted since the previous advisory, and the
best estimate of the initial motion is a westward drift at around 2
kt. The synoptic reasoning has not changed, as Nicole is expected to
gradually recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies in the next 48
hours and then turn east-northeastward ahead of an upper-level
trough moving off the U.S. east coast. By the end of the period, the
trough leaves Nicole behind to the south of a ridge centered over
the Davis Strait, which should result in a slow southeastward drift
at day 5. The NHC track has been shifted a little to the right of
the previous one and is a little slower during the first 36-48
hours, bringing Nicole near or over Bermuda. Late in the period, a
larger rightward shift was made to the NHC track. The new official
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is
close to the latest multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 27.3N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 28.2N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 29.6N 66.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 31.5N 65.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.9N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 38.5N 56.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 40.5N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 51.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Alyono]

Seems the upwelling has caused some short term problems, but I checked the models and they seem to have anticipated this, leveling it off overnight tonight into early tomorrow, before beginning RI the latter half of Wednesday into most of Thursday.

Just the HWRF giving an absurd solution like it did when it tried to weaken Matthew from a cat 5 to a TS in 18 hours

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016 0:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
75 knots (86 mph | 39 m/s | 139 km/h)


There's no point over hyping ie a major cane, until some-thing actually does happen with this cat1 storm.

[EquusStorm]

Weird storm.

[Hammy]

Globals are indicating rapid intensification in the next 24 hours and the forecast only calls for a 5 mph increase.

[Kazmit]

Impressive. I think there's a good chance we'll see Bermuda under that eye tomorrow.

[arlwx]

HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 66.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 66.8 West. Nicole is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward
the north-northwest is expected during the next several hours,
followed by a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed
by later today. An additional increase in forward speed with a turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicole will approach Bermuda Wednesday night
and pass near Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Nicole could be near major hurricane strength by later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
by Wednesday evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[arlwx]

HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...HURRICANE NICOLE WITH 100 MPH WINDS IS HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large and distinct eye of Hurricane
Nicole was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 67.0 West.
Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h),
but a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today. An additional increase in forward speed with a
turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will near Bermuda on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next
36 hours, and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength by later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
by later today or tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[arlwx]

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern on satellite continues to be very impressive
with a large eye surrounded by deep convection and a good upper-
level outflow in all quadrants. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain
4.5/77 kt, but objective numbers from UW-CIMMS are up to 5.7 on the
Dvorak scale. The initial intensity is then set to 85 kt, based on
a blend of these estimates. An Air Force plane will be in the eye
of Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an
intensity update.

Environmental conditions are conducive for some additional
strengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at
its peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda. After 36 hours,
the shear is forecast to increase significantly resulting in some
weakening. Nicole should then become a post-tropical cyclone by 96
hours. Most of the global models indicate that the post-tropical
cyclone will maintain winds of near hurricane strength, and so does
the NHC forecast.

Satellite fixes indicate that Nicole is moving toward the north-
northwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt. The steering pattern has not
changed, and in the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will become
embedded in the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This pattern should
force Nicole to turn to the north-northeast and then east with a
gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous one primarily during the next 24 to 36
hours, bringing the core of Nicole very near or over Bermuda. The
forecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 27.9N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.9N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 30.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 32.6N 64.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 35.0N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 39.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0600Z 40.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila

[USTropics]

Recon en-route, see how much Nicole strengthened over night soon.

As of 09:33 UTC Oct 12, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.25°N 73.95°W
Bearing: 90° at 311 kt
Altitude: 8693 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 262°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

[abajan]

How many [Bermudians] do we have on S2K? ...

I know of at least one: viewtopic.php?p=2563822#p2563822

[abajan]

Recon en-route, see how much Nicole strengthened over night soon.

As of 09:33 UTC Oct 12, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.25°N 73.95°W
Bearing: 90° at 311 kt
Altitude: 8693 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 262°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

Plane is estimated to reach the eye in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now.

[Ken711]

Bermuda going to get hit.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
800 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NICOLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 66.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the large and distinct eye of Hurricane
Nicole was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 66.9 West.
Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h),
but a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today. An additional increase in forward speed with a
turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will near Bermuda on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 36 hours, and Nicole
could be near major hurricane strength later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown