ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

So I lose internet for two days (lightning through the modem) and come back expecting maybe this got upgraded, only to find it looking worse than it did with essentially no model support now. Not to beat a dead horse but this is highly unlikely to develop and I'm quite surprised NHC is keeping the chances above 60% at this point.

Welcome back and well, if it means anything, the HWRF, CMC and the UK model still do. And it looks better than it did since Tuesday/Tuesday night imo.

[ROCK]

its also vomiting outflow boundaries from storms to the SE...this is going to take some time to come together..

[chaser1]

So, now the GFS and ECMWF both agree on track and intensity and it is very weak. Hard to ignore.

Right. The models are correct regarding the system being very weak. Wanna know something magical? "If" the upper air over 99L relax's enough tonight and tomm. allowing convection to maintain itself over some COC and we begin to actually see some marked strides in organization in the 24 - 48 hr. timeframe, the models will suddenly become more bullish toward development. At least with regards to this particular system it is futile to look at the models for the purpose of anticipating development, any more than watching a "tail" to see which direction a dog is about to go. As stumped as NHC and other knowledgable observers have been with 99L, the only reliable tools we have to anticipate development is not a model, its the satellite loop and surface obs.

[ConvergenceZone]

So I lose internet for two days (lightning through the modem) and come back expecting maybe this got upgraded, only to find it looking worse than it did with essentially no model support now. Not to beat a dead horse but this is highly unlikely to develop and I'm quite surprised NHC is keeping the chances above 60% at this point.

Wow, it has almost no model support now? I'll have to check out the model threads. I haven't looked at them since yesterday

[ConvergenceZone]

So I lose internet for two days (lightning through the modem) and come back expecting maybe this got upgraded, only to find it looking worse than it did with essentially no model support now. Not to beat a dead horse but this is highly unlikely to develop and I'm quite surprised NHC is keeping the chances above 60% at this point.

You may want to review some previous posts where others took your path of calling this thing dead and see what happened to them. This horse is alive and kicking right up until it isn't.

To me, it's not alive UNTIL it becomes a TD

[fci]

S Fla radio guy just told the listeners that those In SE Florida "have dodged another bullet."
I'm concerned about those in the Gulf who may not be so fortunate.

Yeah Mason Dixon said the same thing on Q105.

How arrogant of them. The models don't say this at all, just one shifted it through the FL Straights.

Maybe I'm mistaken but almost all models I saw this morning clustered to 99L passing into the GOM via the Fla. Straights or Keys which pretty much takes SE Fla off the hook.

[gulf701]

Been checking the wind fields at earth.nullschool.net and the circulation has greatly improved to almost what I would call a closed circulation. The north circulation has a high wind speed of 19 kt, but the south is only 8 kt with and a very weak circular flow. Was a lot weaker looking about 2 hrs ago.

[Frank2]

I'm at work but want to stress despite the impressive IR appearance of the cold cloud tops, 99L is pushing against southwesterly shear now - and northerly shear when it nears SE Florida:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[HurriGuy]

I guess it's me, but I am finding it hard for the ridge to break down the easily the way the models depict it.

[HurricaneBelle]

Nobody is "off the hook", "in the clear" or has "dodged a bullet" based on model runs.

These terms don't apply until the either the system is dissipated or it has passed your area and isn't expected to come back.

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone have the latest recon schedule?

[Tireman4]

Nobody is "off the hook", "in the clear" or has "dodged a bullet" based on model runs.

These terms don't apply until the either the system is dissipated or it has passed your area and isn't expected to come back.

Paraphrasing Dr. Neil Frank. Never ever ever let your guard down until it is over, dissipated or no clouds attached to it.

[Extratropical94]

Anyone have the latest recon schedule?

Edit: Didn't read today's TCPOD.

Next flight tomorrow at 1530Z (11:30am EDT)

[chaser1]

Does anyone think that invest 99L can be a depression today and what should we expect for Miami and Boca Raton this weekend.

Today?? I'd say there's a better chance of the Flying Nun landing on my roof, pregnant

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone have the latest recon schedule?

First one is scheduled to depart at 20:00Z (4pm EDT), second one at 08:15Z (4:15am EDT) tomorrow.

I thought today's recon was canceled?

[Extratropical94]

Anyone have the latest recon schedule?

First one is scheduled to depart at 20:00Z (4pm EDT), second one at 08:15Z (4:15am EDT) tomorrow.

I thought today's recon was canceled?

Yeah it was, sorry, i forgot to read the new TCPOD

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone have the latest recon schedule?

Edit: Didn't read today's TCPOD.

Next flight tomorrow at 1530Z (11:30am EDT)

I'm not seeing this on the NHC's recon page. Where did you find this?

[Frank2]

I just realized a 99L is also interacting with a ULL between it and Florida - not sure if the ULL is weakening or strengthening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[SeGaBob]

Storms seem to have waned the last couple of frames...still a lot better than yesterday though.

[Extratropical94]

Anyone have the latest recon schedule?

Edit: Didn't read today's TCPOD.

Next flight tomorrow at 1530Z (11:30am EDT)

I'm not seeing this on the NHC's recon page. Where did you find this?

In case you are referring to my post before i edited that, I was talking about today's planned missions, not realizing they had already been cancelled.

For tomorrow's flights:

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 27/1530Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 24.0N 78.5W D. 24.5N 80.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml