ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

again these models are plowing through the ridge like its not there. something else is in play.

[chaser1]

Well, the EURO seems to sniff out the ridge weakening at 120 hours it appears. I'm curious if we'll see a slow moving storm suddently hit the breaks near Ceder Key and possibly make a sharp left turn in response to the ridge building back in from the north

[SFLcane]

If I'm reading correctly it comes ashore in SE Florida but as a TS?

No that's more the likely a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro @ hr 144:

[chaser1]

again these models are plowing through the ridge like its not there. something else is in play.

Yep; very suspicous. I'd think with that set up that it would push N.W. all the way toward Pensacola at the minimum but prob. further west yet.

[SeGaBob]

Might get in on it again this run.

[Kingarabian]

I'm assuming final landfall strength is 971mb.

[drezee]

Splits it into two lows, if in err the system would be bundled, farther W, and and stronger. Did the same with Katrina when she was N of Cuba

[SFLcane]

Hi-res 997mb likely a hurricane into SFL hasn't wavered. I think today I"ll finish my preps with wifey.

[chaser1]

I"m not seeing the two lows you're referring to?

[TheStormExpert]

Hi-res 997mb likely a hurricane into SFL hasn't wavered. I think today I"ll finish my preps with wifey.

There's no way that's a hurricane into S. FL, likely strong TS at best.

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm sure the folks in the Gulf coast are probably feeling better; at this time last night, king euro had armageddon with a possible cat 5 landfall in Louisiana. Now it looks like just a garden variety cat 1 moving up Florida and inland. Still too early to let your guard down anywhere on the Gulf Coast but another Katrina level catastrophe is looking less likely.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro 969.7mb landfall on Hi-res. Roughly 13mb stronger than the 12z run.

[drezee]

I"m not seeing the two lows you're referring to?

There is a 1008mb low that "pivots" withe 99L SE of Brownsville. When you see two "tandem" lows like that you can occasionally split the angular momentum and bundle the energy proportionally between the two lows. Most recently this happen with Earl earlier this summer.

[SFLcane]

Hi-res 997mb likely a hurricane into SFL hasn't wavered. I think today I"ll finish my preps with wifey.

There's no way that's a hurricane into S. FL, likely strong TS at best.

Impacts the same really

[Dean4Storms]

Chances are these models are conservative with intensity on this.

[Bocadude85]

Hi-res 997mb likely a hurricane into SFL hasn't wavered. I think today I"ll finish my preps with wifey.

There's no way that's a hurricane into S. FL, likely strong TS at best.

Impacts the same really

[img]

Strong TS or minimal hurricane have similar impacts..but I will say a strengthening system at landfall will do more damage then a steady state system will as its able to mix the winds down to the surface better.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I'm sure the folks in the Gulf coast are probably feeling better; at this time last night, king euro had armageddon with a possible cat 5 landfall in Louisiana. Now it looks like just a garden variety cat 1 moving up Florida and inland. Still too early to let your guard down anywhere on the Gulf Coast but another Katrina level catastrophe is looking less likely.

still cant rule anything out, if that storm does go northwest and goes over open GOM after hitting SFL as either a Cat 1 or TS intensifying as it makes land to Cat 1 then that situation could very well pan out

[chaser1]

I'm sure the folks in the Gulf coast are probably feeling better; at this time last night, king euro had armageddon with a possible cat 5 landfall in Louisiana. Now it looks like just a garden variety cat 1 moving up Florida and inland. Still too early to let your guard down anywhere on the Gulf Coast but another Katrina level catastrophe is looking less likely.

still cant rule anything out, if that storm does go northwest and goes over open GOM after hitting SFL as either a Cat 1 or TS intensifying as it makes land to Cat 1 then that situation could very well pan out

Agreed. Several of us are very very suspicous of such a quick northward motion from S. Florida to Tampa. I dont buy it and "IF" an expected NNW to NW motion ensued, than I'd have to assume a real risk of a Cat. 2 or 3 to potentially make landfall somewhere along the N. Gulf coast

As for S. Florida, I'm torn between the GFS solution and the other extreme where the EURO is correct but with the slight risk of unanticipated RI and a slightly stronger 80 knot hurricane making landfall. The only thing worse than putting up shutters, relocating boats, etc. ultimatly for Tropical Storm strength conditions, is not taking such precautions and slightly worse than anticiapated conditions occur with no time to react.

[northjaxpro]

again these models are plowing through the ridge like its not there. something else is in play.

Yep. This makes 2 consecutive EURO runs at or near 144 hours which show something in this.timeframe moving 99L north, then n-ne into eventually into Apalachee Bay toward the Florida Big Bend.