ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

I hate to be a brat, but can someone label the spots where they think both the mid level and low level rotation are? I just don't see it on visible.

You and me both!!!!

[Sanibel]

A ULL before Florida would explain the synoptic offsetting of the convection. It would almost certainly put the kaibosh on development.


Disclaimer: Only professional weather sources should be referred to for tropical systems.

[AutoPenalti]

<snip>

Looks like shear is hitting it again.

[Steve H.]

. Neither can we

[RL3AO]

<snip>

Looks like shear is hitting it again.

Looks like southerly upper level winds now. Could be worse.

[Rail Dawg]

Am I the only one here that wants to see this think go Cat 5?

I don't want anyone to get hurt or property damaged but I want a Cat 5 'cane dangit!

[RL3AO]

Am I the only one here that wants to see this think go Cat 5?

I don't want anyone to get hurt or property damaged but I want a Cat 5 'cane dangit!

You're probably one of the few who will admit it. Considering there is effectively no way to get a cat 5 and not have it damage property at this point, I hope you don't get your wish.

[Rail Dawg]

I fly over quite a few hurricanes and tropical storms in my job as airline pilot.

It's amazing the thing can be raging at the surface but at FL380 you're on top of it or just dodging the T-storms.

[Dean4Storms]

I did talk on the phone to a pro met this afternoon, and he verified what was noticed - there is a ULL between 99 and Florida, so that really lowers the chance of development for now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It is a PV streamer over the northern Bahamas but as Levi Cowan pointed out robust convection can disolve it over time.

[blp]

I did talk on the phone to a pro met this afternoon, and he verified what was noticed - there is a ULL between 99 and Florida, so that really lowers the chance of development for now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yeah, that ULL shows up nicely on the CIMSS map. Really hard to get anything going here in that position. It needs to move past it. It looks over the Florida Straits maybe it could find a good environment.

[Rail Dawg]

Like many of us here I've chased a lot of hurricanes the goal being to watch the eye pass over.

As a Pro Met the draw is irresistable... I'm always heading in as almost all of the traffic is heading out.

99L is heading for the GOM. I'm in Houston. Will travel anywhere if it's Cat 2 or above to make landfall with it.

[HurriGuy]

You don't go around the PV streamer. You have to form enough convection with the LLC to break apart the PV streamer. It is a very thin area of sheer. Once it is broken into pieces, it can actually help the storm.

[robbielyn]

I mentioned this yesterday but a promet said it would ventilate the system. GFS showed this 3 days ago so im not surprised. I notice alot of ull's keep storms in check more often than not. My question is how is it that these ULL's get generated not far from these storms all the time?

[RL3AO]

Credit to Levi for getting people to talk about potential vorticity on a web forum.

[xironman]

Looks like shear is hitting it again.

Meh, it is not like the mid level shear that was cutting the thunderstorms off at the knees like yesterday. Maybe a bit limiting but not a huge deal.

[Michele B]

Am I the only one here that wants to see this think go Cat 5?

I don't want anyone to get hurt or property damaged but I want a Cat 5 'cane dangit!

So can we send it to YOUR house?!?!

Too dang much inconvenience!

[HurriGuy]

LONGWAVE IR RAPID-SCAN showing that mass of convection near or over the broad LLC to be rapidly growing

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160826&endtime=latest&nframes=50&band=4&res=4&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550

[Aric Dunn]

LONGWAVE IR RAPID-SCAN showing that mass of convection near or over the broad LLC to be rapidly growing

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160826&endtime=latest&nframes=50&band=4&res=4&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550

quite rapidly too with smaller satellite towers starting build and look to be rotating around.. I think when recon get there we might have a decent circ..

[NDG]

The mid level vorticity below, for those who were wondering.
Is trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

[HurriGuy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8sht/wg8shtjava.html

I recommend everyone look at this. In the sheer tendency map, you can see it actually has the PV streamer on the map and every new update, it starts to break apart. SO this sees the growing convection and possible split of the thin layer of sheer.

(The PV streamer is on the 4th to last frame clear as day. Watch the last 3 frames)