ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Hurricaneman]

the GFS ensembles seem to have 2 camps unlike the 6Zensembles which pretty much had one track towards the Bahamas the 12zensembles have one set towards Central Cuba and towards the Florida west coast and the other option of Eastern Cuba through the Bahamas so it seems to be losing some of that consensus it had

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[LarryWx]

Remember how the models shifted east of Florida with Hermine and how it never happened as Hermine kept moving further and further west?

Yes, the models shifted westward as Hermine refused to develop as early as the models first thought. There was a clearcut westward trend for days, especially with the GFS. However, so far with 97L, an eastward trend has recently developed with regard to average of all of the model runs, including ensembles as the previously modeled upper high in the E US has been largely replaced with a cutoff low. This trend toward cutoff low was first seen on the Euro several runs ago. In contrast, I don't recall an eastward trend with Hermine during any several run period.

Does this mean the eastward trend will stick? We, of course, don't know yet. For one thing, if this ends up weaker than currently modeled, it could easily move further west into the western Caribbean even with the cutoff.

By the way, the 72 hour JMA is a little stronger and is further north than the 96 hour JMA of yesterday's 12Z run. I bet it will show a recurve east of the conus when the maps go out further.

[GCANE]

06Z COAMPS has it coming into the Caib very low as a TD.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... 50&tau=999

[gatorcane]

the GFS ensembles seem to have 2 camps unlike the 6Zensembles which pretty much had one track towards the Bahamas the 12zensembles have one set towards Central Cuba and towards the Florida west coast and the other option of Eastern Cuba through the Bahamas so it seems to be losing some of that consensus it had

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Indeed much more spread at 252 hours with a number of ensembles into South Florida (the camp that is slower):

[gatorcane]

276 hours = extreme long-range:

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't put much trust or certainty in this sudden northward turn just yet especially still 5 days plus out with no identifiable LLC location, no recon sampling pressures or trust in these models with the Westerlies beyond 5 days this year. Expect some major track adjustments in future runs!

[gatorcane]

A look at GEFS MSLP anomalies, for us in South Florida we need to see this move much further away for any comfort:

[Hurricaneman]

I haven't really narrowed down the track from last night its still from Pensacola to the Eastern Bahamas and the Carolinas but we may not be able to narrow it down any for the next 48hrs based on the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/780087765073596417

[otowntiger]

A look at GEFS MSLP anomalies, for us in South Florida we need to see this move much further away for any comfort:

Have the models now backed way off on the intensity? This looks a whole lot weaker than earlier. That looks like a moderate level t.s in the Bahamas. I'm guess this is true since the activity here seems to have died down very quickly. Lower intensity combined with a massive shift to the east now raising the probabilities of a CONUS miss have the effect of really quieting things down around here, lol.

[wxmann_91]

Cutoff lows are very difficult to forecast in the 5 to 7 day range and that appears to be a major feature for the future track of this system. Probably means we have less confidence than normal in the 5 to 10 day range.

This is really the takeaway here. That, and some impact to the Windward Islands and potential major impacts to the north coast of S. America and the ABC Islands. But everything after that is a crapshoot. (Though at this moment, a recurve east of FL would be favored against a W. Carib/Gulf threat.)

[p1nheadlarry]

Better be careful here. Wild swings in models will burn you every time.

You'd think Hermine taught a lesson or two on that.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[bamajammer4eva]

A look at GEFS MSLP anomalies, for us in South Florida we need to see this move much further away for any comfort:

[img]http://s17.postimg.org/4yv1b1fhb/gfs_ens_mslpa_Norm_watl_40.png

Have the models now backed way off on the intensity? This looks a whole lot weaker than earlier. That looks like a moderate level t.s in the Bahamas. I'm guess this is true since the activity here seems to have died down very quickly. Lower intensity combined with a massive shift to the east now raising the probabilities of a CONUS miss have the effect of really quieting things down around here, lol.

That map is the Ensemble Mean. The GFS Operational still shows pressure in the 930s before reaching Cuba.

[ConvergenceZone]

A look at GEFS MSLP anomalies, for us in South Florida we need to see this move much further away for any comfort:

Have the models now backed way off on the intensity? This looks a whole lot weaker than earlier. That looks like a moderate level t.s in the Bahamas. I'm guess this is true since the activity here seems to have died down very quickly. Lower intensity combined with a massive shift to the east now raising the probabilities of a CONUS miss have the effect of really quieting things down around here, lol.

So very true! You can always tell if the forecasted intensity has decreased based on how much traffic this forum is getting. But yes, it does appear the forecasted intensity from the models has dropped off quite s bit with GFS being the exception

[Bocadude85]

A look at GEFS MSLP anomalies, for us in South Florida we need to see this move much further away for any comfort:

Have the models now backed way off on the intensity? This looks a whole lot weaker than earlier. That looks like a moderate level t.s in the Bahamas. I'm guess this is true since the activity here seems to have died down very quickly. Lower intensity combined with a massive shift to the east now raising the probabilities of a CONUS miss have the effect of really quieting things down around here, lol.

The 12z GFS is forecasting a major hurricane in the Caribbean and the Bahamas. What your looking at is a ensemble mean.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Better be careful here. Wild swings in models will burn you every time.

You'd think Hermine taught a lesson or two on that.

Indeed, especially as the models were all showing at one point Hermine moving away from the USA.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[Hurricaneman]

looks like it could be quite a bit farther west on this run of the Euro

[WeatherEmperor]

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