ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I think I've been forced to take Tylenol to ease my headaches...

[jasons2k]

Come on, Debby 2000, Ernesto 2006...Just to name a few

[mobilebay]

Come on, Debby 2000, Ernesto 2006...Just to name a few

I said tropical wave. Although one could wonder if Debby was ever anything more than a wave. Lol

[StarmanHDB]

99L has fatigued so many people that no one is posting the GFS model run.

There's basically nothing to post--there's essentially no model support any longer from anything other than the HWRF.

I have been following troical weather for about 30 years. I can honestly say this is the most frustrating tropical wave a have ever tracked. Period

Yeah, my work productivity took a major nosedive this week. Stupid 99L! It's all your fault! And you better not screw up my weekend either....but, you will, won't you?

All kidding aside, let's all hope that this system doesn't explode when/if it hits the Gulf. We know it will most likely be a serious rainmaker here in Florida, but NO ONE ANYWHERE needs ANY powerful tropical system EVER! With that, let's all stay safe out there! I have a feeling the Atlantic Ocean has much more in store for us this season.

[Aric Dunn]

Sooo guess what ?

[mobilebay]

Sooo guess what ?

I'll bite. What?

[Jag95]

I agree with the other poster, it looks like whatever is left of the circulation is exposed again and due west of Long Island. If this thing ever makes it to the Florida Straits (not much further to go) it might have a chance to organize a little but IMO this might have been the last chance it had.

[N2FSU]

Sooo guess what ?

?

[sphelps8681]

This is somewhat off topic but since it is kind of slow, I thought I would share a little something with ya'll. If the moderators need to delete this post that is fine.

We live just North of Sabine Pass. I told my husband we are not staying for another Hurricane. Already been through enough (Rita, Ike, Humberto and I probably can name a few more). Heck my 18 year old has already been through as many Hurricanes as I have. We stayed for all of them. The hurricane part is not near as bad so far(but it is very scary) as the aftermath. If you can leave, LEAVE. I remember during Rita I left because I heard in a town not far from where we were was selling ice. So off me and my then 7 year went leaving the rest of our family behind. Of course there was no ice when we got there but the grocery store in the town happened to be open. I went there to get supplies. No one allowed in but you could them your grocery list of things and they would get them. With no electricity the store the store loaded shopping carts full of the meat that would go bad and it was like a free for all with all the people in the parking lot grabbing all they could out of the carts. It felt very third world. When I drove back after getting my supplies the police had the roads blocked and said I could not come back in. When I explained my family was there and I had my seven year old he still would not let me come back in. I was turned around to go back from where I came with hardly any gas with my child in tow when I realized I had to make this guy understand. Went back through the line and after an hour was told again I could not come through no matter how much I explained my situation. I told him ok but looked at my son and said we are going through and I kept driving till I got back home. I thought to myself I would rather be in jail than driving around with no phone and not knowing where to go.

[mobilebay]

I agree with the other poster, it looks like whatever is left of the circulation is exposed again and due west of Long Island. If this thing ever makes it to the Florida Straits (not much further to go) it might have a chance to organize a little but IMO this might have been the last chance it had.

Yea 99L has been beaten like a rented mule. Wind shear from SW is has decapitated any convection near the center

[La Breeze]

If it was 2005, this probably would develop, but over the last few years the Atlantic has been an ocean filled with nothing but Dry Air, Shear, and Upper Level Lows, so you almost come to expect it anymore anytime something has a "chance" of developing. And so far 2016 doesn't seem any different, although last season was a bit surprising, and we made it through quite a few letters.

I don't know. We still have a lot of season left, and so far, it's at least more favorable than years past. I think personally that 99L is almost done, but the season is not close to over.

Even though this is still an invest, I haven't had this much fun tracking and laughing at comments. "Cat 5 to Louisiana!" to "Open wave headed out to sea!", 99L has definitely provided me with entertainment.

A lot of season left, but it will probably be filled with Shear, Dry Air and Upper Level Lows, sorry I'm just very skeptical until it shows me something different

Come on shear, dry air and upper level lows! May be boring to some, but that's what we need here along the coast.

[La Breeze]

There's basically nothing to post--there's essentially no model support any longer from anything other than the HWRF.

I have been following troical weather for about 30 years. I can honestly say this is the most frustrating tropical wave a have ever tracked. Period

Yeah, my work productivity took a major nosedive this week. Stupid 99L! It's all your fault! And you better not screw up my weekend either....but, you will, won't you?

All kidding aside, let's all hope that this system doesn't explode when/if it hits the Gulf. We know it will most likely be a serious rainmaker here in Florida, but NO ONE ANYWHERE needs ANY powerful tropical system EVER! With that, let's all stay safe out there! I have a feeling the Atlantic Ocean has much more in store for us this season.

Agreed!

[mobilebay]

Prediction at 2AM... TWO will say 48 hours 10%... 5 day 40%.... of course they may wait for EURO but I doubt it.

[Aric Dunn]

Sooo guess what ?

?

look to just east of andros island.. lol got to love the fluid dynamics... the main vort got spit out just after sunset... ... convection looks like its about to fire again..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Blinhart]

Sooo guess what ?

?

look to just east of andros island.. lol got to love the fluid dynamics... the main vort got spit out just after sunset... ... convection looks like its about to fire again..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Is the main center now South of Cuba??? Will they put an number on the system in the GoM since it is far enough away from 99L?

[Blinhart]

when is the next recon?

[Xenon]

Sooo guess what ?

?

look to just east of andros island.. lol got to love the fluid dynamics... the main vort got spit out just after sunset... ... convection looks like its about to fire again..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

At least its firing off a little bit of convection along this time. Perhaps things will be different tonight?

[SeGaBob]

Down to 20/40%

[Aric Dunn]

?

look to just east of andros island.. lol got to love the fluid dynamics... the main vort got spit out just after sunset... ... convection looks like its about to fire again..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

At least its firing off a little bit of convection along this time. Perhaps things will be different tonight?

its a funny thing.. I mean its now passed the shear axis.. switching from southerly to northerly .. the quite light out of the north where its heading.

[AutoPenalti]

Sooo guess what ?

?

look to just east of andros island.. lol got to love the fluid dynamics... the main vort got spit out just after sunset... ... convection looks like its about to fire again..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Oh my god, I'm done. This is getting ridiculous and annoying.