ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mobilebay]

Down to 20/40%

I was half right. Lol. Anyway they changed the cone toward Louisiana

[stormlover2013]

Of course they did high pressure was always going to be strong

[HurriGuy]

I don't know if anyone is awake, but the SHORTWAVE floater shows the circulation extremely well and I really think ...for once, that there is no shear. The way the convection is going off, it appears as if it is forming in a banding motion and not struggling to hold on near the COC

[Airboy]

I don't know if anyone is awake, but the SHORTWAVE floater shows the circulation extremely well and I really think ...for once, that there is no shear. The way the convection is going off, it appears as if it is forming in a banding motion and not struggling to hold on near the COC

Yeah, I was also noticing it just east of the Bahamas Island, if that is the area.

[HurriGuy]

If that really is the area to watch, and I don't know if the vortex is even going to slow down, it is in an extremely good environment. The Upper high on water vapor is taking shape very nicely right over that.

I also would be way ahead of schedule in terms of location. All models would have to adjust

[LJFire1467]

I accidentally posted in the models section but i just made the comment that its starting to look ok again.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I commented in models thinking it was discussion but seriously if this thing becomes hermine after all this time and all this struggle i swear im renaming her hermione and calling her "the storm who lived" lol

[HurriGuy]

The HWRF 00z simulated satellite sure does look like what is happening right now. It has location off by a few hours, but still....almost a mirror image of what is going on now.

I have been saying this for 2 days now, that if the energy makes it under the upper high in tact, the outcome is completely different

[LJFire1467]

It seems whats over Florida is getting pulled to 99L.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=15&band=4&res=4&aniwidth=600&aniheight=373

Probably it's last chance, but here is rapid-scan IR. Storms firing right over new suspected vortex and are being more pulled in rather than holding on for their life

(Adjust the frame count to 600 and watch the evolution)

[stormwise]

i think the vort is here on this satpic.

[Airboy]

i think the vort is here on this satpic.

I see it more north at the point around where you start your arrow in the picture.

[HurriGuy]

i think the vort is here on this satpic.

I see it more north at the point around where you start your arrow in the picture.

Yeah go a little further north towards the island

[LJFire1467]

[StormHunter72]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/h5-loop-avn.html

highlight (check) NWS Fronts and you can see the low.

[xironman]

Vort and new convection pretty obvious on north coast of Cuba on IR2

[Nimbus]

Looks like maybe the storm2K experts called it last night, the vort is no longer racing west, the convection is powering the inflow again and the angular motion over 6 hours has increased in speed by about 25%.

Lets hope it tracks inland over Florida before it stacks!

edit: If 99L were a hundred miles further west it would have outrun the shear from the forecast weakness digging down just off the north Florida coast. With 90 degree water the shear forecast will remain important. 99L is still very shallow with a broad area of low surface pressure so its vulnerable to shear.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[StormHunter72]

99L has been a fighter. Time will tell if it wins the battle.

[drezee]

we should never writeoff a surface low over 90F water...at anytime it could be a TS in 6 hours

[StormHunter72]

we should never writeoff a surface low over 90F water...at anytime it could be a TS in 6 hours

Looks like it is trying to get some convection around the center.