ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed that is the current vort on the northern coast of Eastern Cuba. The vort is moving parallel w-nw right along the northern coast. This is seemingly like a last cling of hope for whatever life maybe left for 99L today with this vort. I have been among those for the past couple of days to wait until today (8-27) to see if 99L will pull a resurrection..Well, whatever life this invest may have, well I can not answer this lol..

The towel is now in my hand proverbally speaking in which I am about to throw it into the ring for all practical purposed.

[srainhoutx]

Short term track though Sunday keep a 1009mb surface low over water into the Florida Straights and S of Key West Sunday night into early Monday when the disturbance enters the SE Gulf. Will need to monitor as it crosses the Gulf Stream. We've seen stranger things happen over the years when Tropical Disturbances across those waters regardless of what computer models suggest.

[jlauderdal]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

impressive considering the adventures this system has had all week with shear and the shredder,,looks like 99l will be driving the weather for at least the next 5 days across central and south florida

side note: impressive lighting display the last two nights, storms get going around 6 and continue for 6-8 hours

[StormHunter72]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

impressive considering the adventures this system has had all week with shear and the shredder,,looks like 99l will be driving the weather for at least the next 5 days across central and south florida

side note: impressive lighting display the last two nights, storms get going around 6 and continue for 6-8 hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0 Seems to be entering favorable to neutral shear.

[northjaxpro]

This is the main factor that has had me clinging for days to not declare last rites with 99L. Once it traverses through the Florida Straits, the system would have that opportunity to spark in that bath water in that region, provided it survived to that point and shear abates. We will see.

[StormHunter72]

It has my attention again....

[jlauderdal]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

impressive considering the adventures this system has had all week with shear and the shredder,,looks like 99l will be driving the weather for at least the next 5 days across central and south florida

side note: impressive lighting display the last two nights, storms get going around 6 and continue for 6-8 hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0 Seems to be entering favorable to neutral shear.

yes...one thing the models did do well is predict the improving environment fri/sat...shear was still an issue yesterday to a lesser degree though...the constant flip flopping and odd solutions were a real problem, they seem to be settling down some but its still nowcast mode, 0-24 hours seems reliable now and thats about it, we still have modeling sending it up the west coast of fla and other modeling sending it out into the central gulf which creates a real difference in the real weather..we get the benefit of key west and miami radar soon in case anything should develop, i wouldnt be surprised if it develops to a td only because of the lousy model performance

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: This is the main factor that has had me clinging for days to not declare last rites with 99L. Once it traverses through the Florida Straits, the system would have that opportunity to spark in that bath water in that region, provided it survived to that point and shear abates. We will see.

water temps havent been a problem, they could easily support a hurricane...the issue has been the shear and then surprise more shear and more shear

[xironman]

The best convection always seems to be south and east of it. But with black IR you know the atmosphere has potential.

[StormHunter72]

yes...one thing the models did do well is predict the improving environment fri/sat...shear was still an issue yesterday to a lesser degree though...the constant flip flopping and odd solutions were a real problem, they seem to be settling down some but its still nowcast mode, 0-24 hours seems reliable now and thats about it, we still have modeling sending it up the west coast of fla and other modeling sending it out into the central gulf which creates a real difference in the real weather..we get the benefit of key west and miami radar soon in case anything should develop, i wouldnt be surprised if it develops to a td only because of the lousy model performance

I said days ago without a center the models would have a hard time. Some agreed some said no.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: This is the main factor that has had me clinging for days to not declare last rites with 99L. Once it traverses through the Florida Straits, the system would have that opportunity to spark in that bath water in that region, provided it survived to that point and shear abates. We will see.

water temps havent been a problem, they could easily support a hurricane...the issue has been the shear and then surprise more shear and more shear

Yes that is right. I mentioned later in that post about how once the shear abates, the warm water would help spark the system to develop. Just like needing to light a match on fuel.

[drezee]

I would say that the surface inflow has finally turned the corner. Three ships clear show it

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/data/storms/ ... -large.png

[GCANE]

Biggest problem at the moment is the 200mb vorticity it is sitting in.
However, WV images shows its not that strong and convection is trying to fill it in.
Latest data I see is that the atmosphere is pretty juiced.
Convection firing in 3000 CAPE air and a 360 Theta-E ridge is sitting in the Fl Straights.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: This is the main factor that has had me clinging for days to not declare last rites with 99L. Once it traverses through the Florida Straits, the system would have that opportunity to spark in that bath water in that region, provided it survived to that point and shear abates. We will see.

water temps havent been a problem, they could easily support a hurricane...the issue has been the shear and then surprise more shear and more shear

Yes that is right. I mentioned later in that post about how once the shear abates, the warm water would help spark the system to develop. Just like needing to light a match on fuel.

Need a blow torch and 50 gallons of generator gas for this thing..it refuses to pop...breezy on fll beach this am

[GCANE]

VIS just coming in.
Looks like a couple hot towers just off the Cuba coast, about 22N 76.5W

[jlauderdal]

yes...one thing the models did do well is predict the improving environment fri/sat...shear was still an issue yesterday to a lesser degree though...the constant flip flopping and odd solutions were a real problem, they seem to be settling down some but its still nowcast mode, 0-24 hours seems reliable now and thats about it, we still have modeling sending it up the west coast of fla and other modeling sending it out into the central gulf which creates a real difference in the real weather..we get the benefit of key west and miami radar soon in case anything should develop, i wouldnt be surprised if it develops to a td only because of the lousy model performance

I said days ago without a center the models would have a hard time. Some agreed some said no.

they have a much better shot when there is a true ceter

[GCANE]

About 3 hours ago, AMSUB showed a decent high rain-rate cell at 23N 76.5W

[La Sirena]

Just woke up here in the lower Keys. Very heavy gray skies and a very light breeze. Extremely calm and not in a good way. Surprised a little to see 99L kicking up....ok, not really. Knew those high SST would be the prescription for this ailing invest. Thanks for all the hard work y'all do here tracking these storms.

[cycloneye]

when is the next recon?

There is none as this time unless they plan missions in the GOM if it gets better organized.