ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Another firing off right in that 3000 CAPE pocket at about 23.9N 75.8W

[drewschmaltz]

6z HWRF goes ballistic. If you live between Ft Myers and Tampa.......

[jlauderdal]

6z HWRF goes ballistic. If you live between Ft Myers and Tampa.......

East trend seems to be the flavor for today

[GCANE]

Looking WV, it appears to me this last hot tower will take out the 200mb vorticity.

Watching for a cirrus canopy to spread out later today if it holds up.

[GCANE]

Very strong and large 3500 CAPE ridge extends from Miami east deep into the Atlantic.
Winds may push this down and interact with 99L late in the day.

[jlauderdal]

6z HWRF goes ballistic. If you live between Ft Myers and Tampa.......

It takes something unusal to get that track and 99l has certainly been a bit odd

[drezee]

Very strong and large 3500 CAPE ridge extends from Miami east deep into the Atlantic.
Winds may push this down and interact with 99L late in the day.

watching it too...HWRF sees it

[xironman]

6z HWRF goes ballistic. If you live between Ft Myers and Tampa.......

There is something about the confinement of the Florida strait that can make storms ramp up a lot more than is expected.

[jaxfladude]

It's Saturday, today's the day that the models from early on said would be the day that things will start to be favorable for development. Of course we now know this invest's history up to this time. It may totally dissipate or turn into a tropical system from a TD to a hurricane in the future hours to days. Feel free to correct me if necessary..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[StormHunter72]

It's Saturday, today's the day that the models from early on said would be the day that things will start to be favorable for development. Of course we now know this invest's history up to this time. It may totally dissipate or turn into a tropical system from a TD to a hurricane in the future hours to days. Feel free to correct me if necessary..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I vote dissipate!!

[GCANE]

Looks like that tower at 22.5N 77W kicked out some cirrus gravity waves to its SE.

[tolakram]

Live visible. I think it's done and gone.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

[johngaltfla]

It's not a dull storm by any stretch, but if 99L doesn't get it's act together by Monday and shear increases, Bones will take it off life support.

The weird thing is that this was forecast to be a much lower shear season which would allow development and thankfully we've had some pretty healthy wind shear this year. Monday will be the critical day if it does not get shredded the next 36 hours. Once it is almost clear of the Florida Straits it has the chance to strut and organize quickly.

[NDG]

Is hard to keep tracking this system with no development support from the GFS and Euro, but since there's nothing closer to home might as well.
It still has a broad surface circulation.

[ronjon]

Actually I think for the first time in 3 days it has a shot at really organizing. I see at least a mid-level center around 22.5N-76.5W with heavy convection building over it. Shear has really fallen off. I'm watching as some models showing development next 24-48 hours as it approaches the keys.

[GCANE]

That 200mb ULL at 30N 70W appears to be intensifying but more WV is wrapping into it and convection firing off around it as it moves into that strong 3500 CAPE ridge. Watching this closely.

[NDG]

One thing for sure 99L is starting to pull in some very rich low level tropical moisture from the deep tropics, could be a very wet week for FL.

[GCANE]

That tower off the coast off Cuba is moving NW and kicking out some decent cirrus with waves. Its taking out UL shear.

[HurriGuy]

We will know if it is a sharp wave axis very soon. About another hour and a half till next ASCAT pass. Hopefully it is clean.

[caneman]

Live visible. I think it's done and gone.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

Why are you saying done and gone? It actually looks better than ever to me.