ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3241 Postby Siker » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:31 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.


The waters over there are still warm because they were so warm last season and if you look a few pages back, you'll see a chart showing the MJO arriving in the West Atlantic this morning.

This tweet from Michael Lowry begs to differ.



That's the past week, not a forecast. He said upward motion is arriving now, which is true.
Last edited by Siker on Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3242 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:31 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.


The waters over there are still warm because they were so warm last season and if you look a few pages back, you'll see a chart showing the MJO arriving in the West Atlantic this morning.

This tweet from Michael Lowry begs to differ.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/769535983729647616




Check the time stamp on what Lowry said and then check it on the MJO post in the post several pages back.

Lowry post- ends at 8/24. Previous post in forum is for 8/27.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3243 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:31 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.


The waters over there are still warm because they were so warm last season and if you look a few pages back, you'll see a chart showing the MJO arriving in the West Atlantic this morning.

This tweet from Michael Lowry begs to differ.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/769535983729647616




Actually someone posted the charts and the MJO and CCKW are entering the western Atlantic right now. Forgot who posted it. Lowry was talking about the reason things have been quieter than it should be with these systems up to today.
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3244 Postby TimeZone » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:32 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.


The active era is long gone in the Atlantic. That's what this Season has taught me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3245 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:33 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Actually someone posted the charts and the MJO and CCKW is entering the western Atlantic right now. Forgot who posted it. Lowry was talking about the reason things have been quieter than it should be with these systems up to today.


The MJO is in the Pacific and remains mostly there. What you see is actually CCKW's likely helped and enhanced by the Eastern Pacific activity. The gulf and wcarb is often assisted in these cases somewhat. Not as much sinking air.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3246 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:35 am

TimeZone wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.


The active era is long gone in the Atlantic. That's what this Season has taught me.

I agree, the active era is probably ending if it already hasn't but we should know for sure by the end of this season or next.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3247 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:35 am

Anybody else noticing that Low Level Vort out in the Gulf west of Tampa tracking NW......Convection is beginning to re-fire around it.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3248 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:36 am

srainhoutx wrote:Two atmospheric features that have been missing are a somewhat more favorable MJO and a CCKW. Both of those atmospheric features are moving E into the Caribbean Sea from the EPAC this morning and we are seeing general rising air with instability begin to increase across the Western Atlantic Basin.

Image

Image


This post guys.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3249 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:38 am

Keep this to 99L please. Long range discussions go in the long-range model or seasonal thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3250 Postby JaxGator » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:39 am

Anyone who thinks the active period is dead doesn't mean the Atlantic is dead. Gaston is intensifying and 99L looks good too this morning. We're ahead of the game so far this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3251 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:44 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3252 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:47 am

Not surprised that the 12z GFS shows a weak closed low pressure track over Key West tomorrow, more defined than previous runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3253 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:52 am

HurriGuy wrote:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-1-24&checked=windv&prodDim=100&overDim=100

Watch the wind vectors as all the convection starts to grow.

In the last frame it looks like circulation is closer to convection.
Last edited by tropicwatch on Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3254 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:54 am

Unfortunately it looks like the ASCAT pass will miss most of the circulation of 99L, by my estimate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3255 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:55 am

HurriGuy wrote:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-1-24&checked=windv&prodDim=100&overDim=100

Watch the wind vectors as all the convection starts to grow.


Very cool hurriguy! Where do you guys get this stuff? Amazes me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3256 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:56 am

TimeZone wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.


The active era is long gone in the Atlantic. That's what this Season has taught me.


No offense, but LMAO Time. G Storm in August? 2 systems that might have gone (1, 99L, may still) but 1 of them was 100 miles inland and caused 160,000 homes to flood? It's far from dead. Are you suggesting 2016 will have less than 11 named storms? I realize there are active years in cooler AMO periods (which we are NOT in at this point) just as there are slower years in the active cycles. IMHO, don't be so quick to pronounce "A", "B", or "C" as if it is fact, particularly when it's not.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3257 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:57 am

NDG wrote:We are getting all anxious about a possible LLC developing, now watch the NHC on their next TWO lowering chances even further if the 12z GFS still shows no significant development, lol.

I bet you're right about that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3258 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:58 am

SeGaBob wrote:
NDG wrote:We are getting all anxious about a possible LLC developing, now watch the NHC on their next TWO lowering chances even further if the 12z GFS still shows no significant development, lol.

I bet you're right about that.


Actually the 12z GFS now shows a stronger vorticity & closed circulation to track across the lower Keys then NNW over the extreme eastern GOM, so I would be really surprised if they lower the chances.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3259 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:01 am

I must've missed that part. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3260 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:02 am

Yes the GFS is not that much stronger, but definitely a noticeable stronger vorticity in latest run
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