ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3261 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:06 am

how fast can nhc ask plane fly in i think we could td sooner and sunday or monday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3262 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:08 am

Cayo Coco now reporting NNW winds, very interesting. Showing me that the circulation might be relocating to the NE of that Key closer to the deep convection. IMO.

Conditions at: MUCC observed 27 August 2016 16:03 UTC
Temperature: 28.0°C (82°F)
Dewpoint: 26.0°C (79°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): missing
Winds: from the NNW (330 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 knots; 3.1 m/s)
Visibility: 1.86 miles (2.99 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: TSRA (rain associated with thunderstorm(s))
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3263 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:09 am

I am not saying this is Tropical Storm Issac, but 99L is almost in the exact same position.

And really if 99L does decide to form, that track cannot be ruled out. GFS ensemble keeps flip-flopping, really all the models been back and forth and there are some ECMWF ensembles that have that path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3264 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:10 am

Circulation with 99L is beginning to turn a lot more atmosphere than any other time. Inflow from the west is very noticeable. Look south into the Central Caribbean as well and notice all the thunderstorms moving in from the southeast. Pretty interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3265 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:11 am

NDG wrote:Cayo Coco now reporting NNW winds, very interesting. Showing me that the circulation might be relocating to the NE of that Key closer to the deep convection. IMO.

Conditions at: MUCC observed 27 August 2016 16:03 UTC
Temperature: 28.0°C (82°F)
Dewpoint: 26.0°C (79°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): missing
Winds: from the NNW (330 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 knots; 3.1 m/s)
Visibility: 1.86 miles (2.99 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: TSRA (rain associated with thunderstorm(s))


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-0-24&checked=plot&prodDim=100&overDim=100

if you guys want to check it out. Cayo Coco is the south most station.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3266 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:12 am

Still an active entity I would say to be watched in the Gulf. Especially if it turns north. May even have a S component right now.



Disclaimer: All weather information should be gotten from official sources. I am just an untrained internet observer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3267 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:16 am

look at 96 hour loop you see center now under those storms let see if nhc notice it at 2pmhttp://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3268 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:17 am

It looks like it's going to move into Cuba which will disrupt any progress it's made.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3269 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:17 am

I was just noticing the BAM Medium, Shallow and Deep all have a similar track.
So the HWRF is apparently creating the poleward motion from rapid intensification.
Often when the BAM models line up it idicates low shear.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3270 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:20 am

Image

Am I seeing a gradual cyclonic motion at 23N, 76.5W....approximately
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3271 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:21 am

The 1-min visible is fun to watch this morning. Seeing some more convection developing in the red circle. Lots of work to do though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3272 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:21 am

Image

Shear has increased right near and over the area where 99L is located. Very small increase though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3273 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:21 am

Is this broad area of circulation trying to collaborate further back east a tad?

Would make sense with the NNW wind at Cayo Coco
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3274 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:22 am

looking weather station data on this site http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ you can see wind from station north cuba blowing to nw and one islands in Bahamas you see wind blowing to ne that look were we see weak low at
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3275 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:22 am

SeGaBob wrote:It looks like it's going to move into Cuba which will disrupt any progress it's made.

Looks to me looking at Visible that the LLC is moving west and will miss Cuba. I could be wrong but what I see currently. It is also becoming much better defined and not so naked.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3276 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:22 am

The sheer maps have obviously been pretty bad.

I would not even look at them. Focus on real-time data
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3277 Postby JaxGator » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:23 am

SoupBone wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/8x0gly.gif

Shear has increased right near and over the area where 99L is located. Very small increase though.


In the NE quad at least but the LLC and most of the convection is still under the green.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3278 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:24 am

Still looks WNW to me and paralleling the Cuban coast, the LL swirl is as vigorous as it has ever been...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3279 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:25 am

I wish Aric was on to tell us something...
Last edited by SeGaBob on Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3280 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:26 am

Image


Well....that is quite the spike in lower convergence from the last 3 hours IF THIS IS TRUE
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