ATL: HERMINE - Models

[artist]

Eric Blake 


From Eric Blake sat the NHC
@EricBlake12

HWRF is not a genesis model- Tests show very low skill & a pronounced high bias at early stages-Caveat emptor! #99Lpic.twitter.com/AYe8sVIekm

7:43 AM - 26 Aug 2016

Someone correct me if wrong but I believe I saw that HWRF was most accurate with intensity though so that is cause for concern alone.

from Eric Blake at the NHC

[caneman]

The have however been the most accurate in,terms of intensity. Youll have to read back through the thread someone had posted the comparison. So, should this form it could be a biggie.

[artist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricBlake12/ ... 33/photo/1
[Image]https://t.co/AYe8sVIekm[/Image]
read his exchange
Eric Blake



@EricBlake12

19h

@forecaster25 it is not made for genesis so using it for that purpose, consistent or not, is not advised

View conversation ·    

The have however been the most accurate in,terms of intensity. Youll have to read back through the thread someone had posted the comparison. So, should this form it could be a biggie.

[caneman]

Yes, it hasn't made it but it looks well on the way. It would be something if it scores while gfs and euro are asleep,at the wheel. Time will tell.

[BucMan2]

If the HWRF and Nam are so terrible ,why are they still used?

[stormlover2013]

Good with intensity horrible with track

[tolakram]

If the HWRF and Nam are so terrible ,why are they still used?

HWRF has been most accurate with intensity once a storm has formed.

NAM is excellent for upper air features but not designed for the tropics.

[Siker]

If the HWRF and Nam are so terrible ,why are they still used?

The HWRF is terrible BEFORE a storm has formed, and even sometimes when a weak storm has formed as well; it has a very high bias in these situations. However, with an organized system it is one of the top intensity and track models.

The NAM is straight awful with most tropical systems, but it runs when no other models are running so it gives us something to look at.

[RL3AO]

Eric Blake 


From Eric Blake sat the NHC
@EricBlake12

HWRF is not a genesis model- Tests show very low skill & a pronounced high bias at early stages-Caveat emptor! #99Lpic.twitter.com/AYe8sVIekm

7:43 AM - 26 Aug 2016

Someone correct me if wrong but I believe I saw that HWRF was most accurate with intensity though so that is cause for concern alone.

from Eric Blake at the NHC

It's done very well when verifying an already developed tropical cyclone. So basically whenever NHC is issuing advisories.

[Blinhart]

If I'm reading the spaghetti models correctly, the ridge is suppose to break down in the next couple days causing this system to turn North and then NorthEast.

[Siker]

The UKMET just won't give up:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.6N 82.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 48 24.8N 83.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 30.08.2016 60 24.8N 84.8W 1005 25
1200UTC 30.08.2016 72 25.0N 86.3W 1004 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 84 24.9N 87.0W 1002 26
1200UTC 31.08.2016 96 25.5N 87.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 01.09.2016 108 25.9N 87.6W 994 42
1200UTC 01.09.2016 120 26.1N 87.4W 983 56
0000UTC 02.09.2016 132 27.0N 86.9W 976 64
1200UTC 02.09.2016 144 28.2N 86.0W 969 71

[Nimbus]

The BAM Shallow, Medium and Deep are pretty close for a few days.
The dynamic models have varying degrees of recurve.
Pretty clear setup with the HWRF playing storm of the Century.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Umm HWRF has always been a top 3 to look at..not sure why all the negative stuff here. In 1938 a storm on labor day pretty much took a similar track to that model.

[stormlover2013]

Weak storm will turn right, that's why it will turn, hwrf good with intensity not track

[NDG]

Maybe the HWRF is not so crazy after all, 12z GFS shows an anticylone moving over 99L over the eastern GOM.

[Ntxw]

Umm HWRF has always been a top 3 to look at..not sure why all the negative stuff here. In 1938 a storm on labor day pretty much took a similar track to that model.

I think the issue with it is that it was showing some days ago of 99L hitting the leewards as a hurricane. That clearly did not happen. It has it's strengths and weaknesses as with any other model. It's probably a better model once you have a tropical cyclone strengthening.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Umm HWRF has always been a top 3 to look at..not sure why all the negative stuff here. In 1938 a storm on labor day pretty much took a similar track to that model.

I think the issue with it is that it was showing some days ago of 99L hitting the leewards as a hurricane. That clearly did not happen. It has it's strengths and weaknesses as with any other model. It's probably a better model once you have a tropical cyclone strengthening.

Models shift..no model is perfect..HWRzf has moved this system within its margin of error. GFS and Euro if anything have been following the HWRF (see above) twice now.

[hohnywx]

Umm HWRF has always been a top 3 to look at..not sure why all the negative stuff here. In 1938 a storm on labor day pretty much took a similar track to that model.

I think the issue with it is that it was showing some days ago of 99L hitting the leewards as a hurricane. That clearly did not happen. It has it's strengths and weaknesses as with any other model. It's probably a better model once you have a tropical cyclone strengthening.

Models shift..no model is perfect..HWRzf has moved this system within its margin of error. GFS and Euro if anything have been following the HWRF (see above) twice now.

For those who might have missed this tweet earlier:

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769183401601400833

[lrak]

Way off topic but I love your avatar Ntxw.

[BobHarlem]

GFS on September 10th, just stop.