ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

microwave from a couple hours ago. . ive highlighted the darker low level features. nothing associated with the MLC. and weak but present none the less circ near Andros now associated with the present convection. but just like before it has to maintain. sheared or not as long as it keep re firing a surface circ can form and often does in high shear environment.

original. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/A ... W.47pc.jpg

[SoupBone]

Shear right over the top of 99L getting slightly more potent. Been slowly increasing all day.

[SFLcane]

3-5 inches of rain for SFL? How about no.

[tolakram]

Even if you believe the latest model runs the environment does not turn favorable for 72 to 96 hours.

[GeneratorPower]

99L is the system that cried wolf. And it continues to do so. Will anyone believe the models showing intensification? I certainly don't. Thankfully the NHC is pretty trustworthy to watch everything and anything. The bigger risk is burnout on failed systems with the general public.

Watching The Weather Channel on Friday they were covering 99L constantly. I think there is so much saturation now of weather phenomena in the news. Everything is a "storm system" or a "weather alert". I think people have become a little immune to real threats now because there is so much fake stuff and hype. I know I have. I ignore about 90% of what I see on mass media.

So this is also a challenge to stay prepared because there are certain things you can only do once a storm is for real threatening. Like putting up shutters. My shutters are steel panels. They take 6 hours to put up. In the blazing Florida sun. I have a 2 story house. Ladders. Big house, too. Lots of windows. Luckily this time I didn't put them up. But the more we have these bogus, struggling systems that *might* blow up on us but yet never do, you mentally struggle to take any action in the future.

So basically it's hype fatigue. I think an important part of a hurricane plan is timing. Figuring out ahead of time which items need done at the first sign of trouble and which can wait until later. Not an easy decision sometimes.

So basically we have to wait and see with 99L. I think the models have clearly struggled. How little we actually know about the genesis of tropical cyclones.

[psyclone]

Even if you believe the latest model runs the environment does not turn favorable for 72 to 96 hours.

the real problem for development is that the favorable environment is always 3 to 4 days out. I'll believe it when I actually see it.

[HurriGuy]

NHC UP TO

40/50

[stormhunter7]

well it went back up in latest two

800 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

1. An area of low pressure centered near the north coast of Central
Cuba is a little better defined this afternoon, and is producing a
large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
interacts with the terrain of Cuba through Sunday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when the
low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Reports
from the Cuban Meteorological Service indicate that 3 to 5 inches of
rain have fallen in portions of the island this afternoon.
These rains are likely to continue primarily over portions of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are probably occurring over portions of the
Bahamas, and this activity will spread into parts of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. Interests elsewhere in
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[GeneratorPower]

Seems like a repeating cycle of active convection which expands then eventually dies out. Some pretty gusty winds and heavy rain I'm sure could be expected as the system moves over land areas. You gotta wonder, too, if it could pull a surprise.

Isn't most of that convection over 99L due to daytime heating?

I'm not sure. Right now there is another expansion of the convection near the "center". And it's after sunset.

[GeneratorPower]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1100

Big, cold, top on that convective burst.

[jlauderdal]

Even if you believe the latest model runs the environment does not turn favorable for 72 to 96 hours.

the real problem for development is that the favorable environment is always 3 to 4 days out. I'll believe it when I actually see it.

its like the dolphins..always 3 to 4 players away...40/50 is real progress today

[johngaltfla]

3-5 inches of rain for SFL? How about no.

I concur. I've had enough rain in the last 48 hours and last week thank you very much. I would prefer 99L become Tropical Storm Dissipate.

[ronjon]

Seems like a repeating cycle of active convection which expands then eventually dies out. Some pretty gusty winds and heavy rain I'm sure could be expected as the system moves over land areas. You gotta wonder, too, if it could pull a surprise.

Isn't most of that convection over 99L due to daytime heating?

I'm not sure. Right now there is another expansion of the convection near the "center". And it's after sunset.

Convection formed early this morning and has continued firing all day unlike previous days. Daytime heating produces convection on land. Actually systems do better over the water at night during diurnal max.

[ronjon]

NHC taking development chances more seriously with RECON scheduled for tomorrow and the rather ominous language that florida residents should monitor the situation.

[La Sirena]

NHC taking development chances more seriously with RECON scheduled for tomorrow and the rather ominous language that florida residents should monitor the situation.

Grrrr. I'm monitoring and prepared lol.

Eaton St in KW flooded out today with the heavy storms we had. Flooded over the tops of car tires. This rain event is going to suck lol.

[sunnyday]

Generator Power, I just have to reply to your post. I am with you 100%! Very well said!

[GeneratorPower]

NHC taking development chances more seriously with RECON scheduled for tomorrow and the rather ominous language that florida residents should monitor the situation.

Recon just isn't necessary here. If it were to suddenly become a threat there are enough tools like satellite and radar, plus ship reports, to make decisions. The hurricane hunters primarily confirm a closed circulation then provide exact center fixes. There's no imminent closed circulation to find, and there is no exact center to find. Thus no recon needed.

[GeneratorPower]

Generator Power, I just have to reply to your post. I am with you 100%! Very well said!

Thanks. You know, I think maybe I should start investing in faster hurricane preps that don't take days to implement. Like electric shutters or accordions. Takes 10 minutes to deploy.

[ronjon]

If the GFS comes in stronger next run and Euro stays strong...then I'd say development likely.

[Michele B]

99L is the system that cried wolf. And it continues to do so. Will anyone believe the models showing intensification? I certainly don't. Thankfully the NHC is pretty trustworthy to watch everything and anything. The bigger risk is burnout on failed systems with the general public.

Watching The Weather Channel on Friday they were covering 99L constantly. I think there is so much saturation now of weather phenomena in the news. Everything is a "storm system" or a "weather alert". I think people have become a little immune to real threats now because there is so much fake stuff and hype. I know I have. I ignore about 90% of what I see on mass media.

So this is also a challenge to stay prepared because there are certain things you can only do once a storm is for real threatening. Like putting up shutters. My shutters are steel panels. They take 6 hours to put up. In the blazing Florida sun. I have a 2 story house. Ladders. Big house, too. Lots of windows. Luckily this time I didn't put them up. But the more we have these bogus, struggling systems that *might* blow up on us but yet never do, you mentally struggle to take any action in the future.

So basically it's hype fatigue. I think an important part of a hurricane plan is timing. Figuring out ahead of time which items need done at the first sign of trouble and which can wait until later. Not an easy decision sometimes.

So basically we have to wait and see with 99L. I think the models have clearly struggled. How little we actually know about the genesis of tropical cyclones.

Totally agree with you, Gen.

In fact, I heard one of the Weather CHannel mets yesterday talking about how much AIR TIME 99L was getting - as a TW! Have to agree with him.