ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

If the GFS comes in stronger next run and Euro stays strong...then I'd say development likely.

That is a bad assumption to make.

Models are allover the place and still not showing any consistency

[ronjon]

Generator Power, I just have to reply to your post. I am with you 100%! Very well said!

Thanks. You know, I think maybe I should start investing in faster hurricane preps that don't take days to implement. Like electric shutters or accordions. Takes 10 minutes to deploy.

Yeah GP after the three hurricanes in 2004 I had the accordion shutters installed on our three story home in Hernando Beach. Haven't had to close them yet thankfully. But if I had too, all the windows could be done within an hour.

[ronjon]

If the GFS comes in stronger next run and Euro stays strong...then I'd say development likely.

That is a bad assumption to make.

Models are allover the place and still not showing any consistency

Yeah but the GFS has never been strong so.....

[Bailey1777]

If I had to guess I'd say a majority of members here are gulf coast residents. This place always lights up the most when there is even the slightest of possibility in the gulf.

[Rail Dawg]

I'm telling you I flew right over this thing this afternoon and there is a LOT of energy being displayed.

Sat photos and such are great but when you look at it head-on you can see why the probabilities are being bumped back up.

I think it's going to survive and become a hurricane.

[La Sirena]

I'm telling you I flew right over this thing this afternoon and there is a LOT of energy being displayed.

Sat photos and such are great but when you look at it head-on you can see why the probabilities are being bumped back up.

I think it's going to survive and become a hurricane.

Thanks for the update! I was looking forward to it. I really hope this thing doesn't go too crazy overnight. We left 2 sets of sliders and a set of French doors without their shutters Would hate to wake up to a storm greater than anticipated.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here in miami talk about new low trying form north Cuba but saying main center is one se of key west put look one north cuba coast taking shape will nhc move main center to one by north cuba coast? we here in miami starting see dark cloud moving into south fl north browards their some storms but dry here for now

[floridasun78]

I'm telling you I flew right over this thing this afternoon and there is a LOT of energy being displayed.

Sat photos and such are great but when you look at it head-on you can see why the probabilities are being bumped back up.

I think it's going to survive and become a hurricane.

you should put put Disclaimer that strong word saying could be hurr

[Hammy]

99L is the system that cried wolf. And it continues to do so. Will anyone believe the models showing intensification? I certainly don't. Thankfully the NHC is pretty trustworthy to watch everything and anything. The bigger risk is burnout on failed systems with the general public.

This is one of my big problems with the models being so poor with this, and why it's so frustrating as well. Not just from a hobbyist standpoint, but imagine we keep having models showing development and nothing happens, like here, and then eventually the models zero in on the system becoming strong--what happens? Nobody believes them, and then they end up being correct and people aren't prepared, because they didn't believe the models, because they were wrong too many times with the system.

[Steve]

Generator Power, I just have to reply to your post. I am with you 100%! Very well said!

Thanks. You know, I think maybe I should start investing in faster hurricane preps that don't take days to implement. Like electric shutters or accordions. Takes 10 minutes to deploy.

Yeah GP after the three hurricanes in 2004 I had the accordion shutters installed on our three story home in Hernando Beach. Haven't had to close them yet thankfully. But if I had too, all the windows could be done within an hour.

Y'all adopting old people?

You've been around for a while and know what to do. Biggest threat is some rapid deepening early in the week. I doubt it would be able to hook east after 3 or 4 days unless the ridge building back in from the SE is just behind it. I think a peninsula hit from the west is 20/30% with it being more likely to kick out farther into the Gulf before heading up and in - say somewhere between 85/86.5W or so. No call either way, but I think after SFL somewhere else in the state is likely followed by maybe South AL the way things look now ow the globals. It will probably change.

[floridasun78]

99L is the system that cried wolf. And it continues to do so. Will anyone believe the models showing intensification? I certainly don't. Thankfully the NHC is pretty trustworthy to watch everything and anything. The bigger risk is burnout on failed systems with the general public.

This is one of my big problems with the models being so poor with this, and why it's so frustrating as well. Not just from a hobbyist standpoint, but imagine we keep having models showing development and nothing happens, like here, and then eventually the models zero in on the system becoming strong--what happens? Nobody believes them, and then they end up being correct and people aren't prepared, because they didn't believe the models, because they were wrong too many times with the system.

issue too their got data from plane other day still wrong

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I'm telling you I flew right over this thing this afternoon and there is a LOT of energy being displayed.

Sat photos and such are great but when you look at it head-on you can see why the probabilities are being bumped back up.

I think it's going to survive and become a hurricane.

you should put put Disclaimer that strong word saying could be hurr

I just read that disclaimers are no longer required.

[GeneratorPower]

Well the models are just tools. They are not an official forecast for a reason. They are easily misinterpreted and often not consistent or accurate. That's why we have forecasters. And real NHC forecasts.

If the public is being misled by models they should stay the heck away from models. Weather enthusiasts like us sometimes have just enough smarts to be dangerous. I think some here are leaning on models too much. Up and down with every GFS and ECMWF run. That's just not helpful.

There is a big difference between a model "crying wolf" and a major news outlet crying wolf. You expect it from a model because it's a not-for-public-consumption tool. If news outlets hype up every 99L...that's a problem.

[USTropics]

I'm telling you I flew right over this thing this afternoon and there is a LOT of energy being displayed.

Sat photos and such are great but when you look at it head-on you can see why the probabilities are being bumped back up.

I think it's going to survive and become a hurricane.

you should put put Disclaimer that strong word saying could be hurr

I just read that disclaimers are no longer required.

From vbhoutex

STORM2K will no longer require individual disclaimers in members posts which are forecasts. Over the years the rules have changed and/or become more clarified. After several requests and some research staff reached a decision today that the disclaimer currently at the top of the forums is sufficient for all situations.

We do want EVERYONE to UNDERSTAND THAT ANY FORECAST POSTED ON THIS SITE IS UNOFFICIAL. We do have absolute trust in our PROFESSIONAL METS as ALL OF THEM HAVE BEEN THOROUGHLY CHECKED OUT before being given our Pro-Met tag.

[chris_fit]

Interesting radar loop.....

Looks like some banding forming and some def spin further to the east.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Car ... verDim=100

[Steve]

I'm telling you I flew right over this thing this afternoon and there is a LOT of energy being displayed.

Sat photos and such are great but when you look at it head-on you can see why the probabilities are being bumped back up.

I think it's going to survive and become a hurricane.

you should put put Disclaimer that strong word saying could be hurr

I just read that disclaimers are no longer required.

Yeah. There was a recent court ruling stating that websites weren't liable. Luckily the bosses allowed the legal leeway for us.

Speaking of which, hundreds of people read this. Throw storm2k a 20 donation for whoever hasn't in a while.

[jlauderdal]

my weatherman here in miami talk about new low trying form north Cuba but saying main center is one se of key west put look one north cuba coast taking shape will nhc move main center to one by north cuba coast? we here in miami starting see dark cloud moving into south fl north browards their some storms but dry here for now

Third night in a row big lightning show in broward...action kicks off around 6 and show is over round midnight...lets see if 99 can produce the heavy rain

[jlauderdal]

Interesting radar loop.....

Looks like some banding forming and some def spin further to the east.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Car ... verDim=100

So next few days we get radar from key west...remember on long range if you see a spin it could be mid level due to the angle of the beam...hwrf verifies we get radar the rest of the way...if it verefies or close west coast will wish they never saw a radar return

[GCANE]

Looks like the ULL currently at 22N 59W and moving west will be the ventilator if and when this spins up.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html