ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

The ULL to the NE of the Bahamas is moving southward, and good timing. The spin off the coast of Cuba has dissipated and another diurnal flare has started:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Javlin]

Well the models are just tools. They are not an official forecast for a reason. They are easily misinterpreted and often not consistent or accurate. That's why we have forecasters. And real NHC forecasts.

If the public is being misled by models they should stay the heck away from models. Weather enthusiasts like us sometimes have just enough smarts to be dangerous. I think some here are leaning on models too much. Up and down with every GFS and ECMWF run. That's just not helpful.

There is a big difference between a model "crying wolf" and a major news outlet crying wolf. You expect it from a model because it's a not-for-public-consumption tool. If news outlets hype up every 99L...that's a problem.

Well I have to agree as technology grows we rely more on it than what we see or think making the thought process lazy.We have all heard in the past John Hope and Nash Roberts with his board and grease pen doing it the old way.I would bet though that even this scenario would probably be perplexing for those guys and they would maybe say" we just have to wait for something more concrete to happen".It still really seems until a surface LLC is observed anything outside of 72hrs is just a maybe I think the ULL's really mess with the models abit still.

[Michele B]

Thanks. You know, I think maybe I should start investing in faster hurricane preps that don't take days to implement. Like electric shutters or accordions. Takes 10 minutes to deploy.

Yeah GP after the three hurricanes in 2004 I had the accordion shutters installed on our three story home in Hernando Beach. Haven't had to close them yet thankfully. But if I had too, all the windows could be done within an hour.

Y'all adopting old people?

You've been around for a while and know what to do. Biggest threat is some rapid deepening early in the week. I doubt it would be able to hook east after 3 or 4 days unless the ridge building back in from the SE is just behind it. I think a peninsula hit from the west is 20/30% with it being more likely to kick out farther into the Gulf before heading up and in - say somewhere between 85/86.5W or so. No call either way, but I think after SFL somewhere else in the state is likely followed by maybe South AL the way things look now ow the globals. It will probably change.

I hope you're right about this. I'd hate for it to pull a "Charley" and come straight up our way!

[Aric Dunn]

Whats quite intriguing is what appears to be a large feeder band building wbw towards the "center" or recent convection going right through the old mlc. Pressures dropping ?

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/#ani

For the ones who monitor throughout the night.

Use the rapid-scan IR or Shortwave

[psyclone]

I notice the HWRF wants to blow my house down, kill me and sweep my remains safely out to sea but I'm not the least bit concerned as the wrecking ball it wants to sling at me has consistently been unable to develop. It is likely that someone else will be in the firing range on the next run and those folks should be equally unconcerned unless and until we are able to have true and sustained development. I check in frequently because I have deep respect for climo and the calendar says turn your back on the sea at your own risk in late August...so whether the odds are trending higher or lower I'm still watching.

[Blown Away]

IMO, 99L will become TD/TS once it hooks NE in GOM, crosses FL, and finds the new MDR in the N Atlantic... JMHO

[chaser1]

I notice the HWRF wants to blow my house down, kill me and sweep my remains safely out to sea but I'm not the least bit concerned as the wrecking ball it wants to sling at me has consistently been unable to develop. It is likely that someone else will be in the firing range on the next run and those folks should be equally unconcerned unless and until we are able to have true and sustained development. I check in frequently because I have deep respect for climo and the calendar says turn your back on the sea at your own risk in late August...so whether the odds are trending higher or lower I'm still watching.

Sage advice. Abreast enough to not be surprised, but beyond that I've just gotten a bit worn to having practically any faith in the models at this time

[Frank2]

GeneratorPower wrote:
Well the models are just tools. They are not an official forecast for a reason. They are easily misinterpreted and often not consistent or accurate. That's why we have forecasters. And real NHC forecasts.

If the public is being misled by models they should stay the heck away from models. Weather enthusiasts like us sometimes have just enough smarts to be dangerous. I think some here are leaning on models too much. Up and down with every GFS and ECMWF run. That's just not helpful.

There is a big difference between a model "crying wolf" and a major news outlet crying wolf. You expect it from a model because it's a not-for-public-consumption tool. If news outlets hype up every 99L...that's a problem.

That's a great comment and true. Earlier one of the cable OCM's had to backpedal because his tweets of the Gulf scenario was apparently causing concern.

The human eye sees truth, but the mind can twist truth and see what it desires to see. One might see a weak system, while another might see development.

[gatorcane]

In the last week the HWRF has blown up the Bahamas, southern Florida, the Keys, and has shown CAT 3+s in the central GOM. I would take this Tampa Bay blowup with a grain of salt.

[HurriGuy]

It is not a perfect analog, but if a more pronounced ridge begins to form to the northwest/north of the Gulf, and if 99L forms, this could be in the same situation as Issac.

Early consensus was that Issac would catch the trough and curve into Florida, but instead it found the sweet spot and drifted at a snails pace to Louisiana. Just something to watch for. Really hoping Louisiana stays out of this because I do not need another inch of rain here.

[Frank P]

It is not a perfect analog, but if a more pronounced ridge begins to form to the northwest/north of the Gulf, and if 99L forms, this could be in the same situation as Issac.

Early consensus was that Issac would catch the trough and curve into Florida, but instead it found the sweet spot and drifted at a snails pace to Louisiana. Just something to watch for. Really hoping Louisiana stays out of this because I do not need another inch of rain here.

Good point, and you would think looking at the latest model guidance runs that it usually takes some kind of frontal passing to make a system take such a hard right turn as many of the models currently indicate ... something you might expect to happen in late Sept or Oct, but not August..

[LSU2001]

I for one don't want to see anything like an Isaac or Gustave type scenario play out. Gustave really destroyed a lot down in my area and Issac kinda stalled shortly after landfall and it really sucked at my house for quite awhile. But I do live Down da Bayou lol
Tim

[Evil Jeremy]

Invest 99L is a good reminder on the caution needed for issuing TS watches before a system is developed. Would you have used them in this situation? If so, how?

[Aric Dunn]

Its pretty clear what happening. . The new convection forming on the southern side is moving east while the north side build west. Along with the clear feeder band coming in from the se. Most likely a surface circ now.

[GeneratorPower]

Invest 99L is a good reminder on the caution needed for issuing TS watches before a system is developed. Would you have used them in this situation? If so, how?

Personally I think TS Watches would be and are appropriate for 99L. I think in general the tropical watches are underutilized. A watch means TS conditions possible. That's certainly true here. I would favor watches, but not warnings, for this type of system.

[BobHarlem]

Not aimed at anyone in particular, but whenever I see terms like "will do this", "clearly", and "definitely" used with broad unorganized systems, I tend to immediately take them with a grain of salt.

[Frank P]

Well at least the long range radars out of Miami and the Keys will be helpful in the not to distant future...

[robbielyn]

Invest 99L is a good reminder on the caution needed for issuing TS watches before a system is developed. Would you have used them in this situation? If so, how?

No. No well defined LLC with good model supportand a hx of not getting organized, then no.Everyone should be prepared and keep themselves abreast of the situation. We still easily have 36 hrs to get the warnings out since it doesnt make landfall till after then.

[GeneratorPower]

Although I favor TS watches here, you would have to be careful. The existence of a TS Watch on the map sets in motion many things with emergency operations planners and governments.