ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Not aimed at anyone in particular, but whenever I see terms like "will do this", "clearly", and "definitely" used with broad unorganized systems, I tend to immediately take them with a grain of salt.

Great point. Enthusiasm has a tendency to get the better of us. This system has tricked a lot of very good people. daily for multiple days

[Aric Dunn]

weak but likely there..

[HurriGuy]

Here is the GFS 18Z at 250mb. We are very likely going to see more vertical sheer tomorrow instead of the west to east sheer we have been seeing today. So the further south, closer to Cuba the vorticity stays, the lesser the effects will be. There will very likely be sheer regardless.



You can see how this is all going to play out. There will basically be a ULL to the west, north and east of the southeast Gulf. This will cause the anti-cyclonic flow in that region and you see on latest GFS, come Monday during the day, a much more favorable environment forms as that upper high is keeping it protected.

Everything will depend on the EXACT location of the center of circulation for the remainder of 99L.

[psyclone]

I don't want any extra watches/warnings. No cyclone, no deal. a potential need for immediate watches/warnings is sufficient... should development occur and that's not hard to verbalize in outlooks.

[Alyono]

I don't want any extra watches/warnings. No cyclone, no deal. a potential need for immediate watches/warnings is sufficient... should development occur and that's not hard to verbalize in outlooks.

and that is going to get people killed one day, which is why the private sector already does watches and warnings pre genesis and the NHC will be going in that direction

[GeneratorPower]

Does SPC wait until a tornado is on the ground before issuing a watch or warning? No.

[drewschmaltz]

I've ran some unconventional analysis and I'm absolutely certain that MLC and LLC will stack when Discussion page count > Model page count.

Some say an LLC is forming under the MLC, but it looks like we still have about 2 pages to go.

[HurriGuy]

Guess what!

We get another shot at having an ASCAT scan. Maybe it will just clip 99L this time

[Aric Dunn]

I've ran some unconventional analysis and I'm absolutely certain that MLC and LLC will stack when Discussion page count > Model page count.

Some say an LLC is forming under the MLC, but it looks like we still have about 2 pages to go.

Lol nothing under the mlc

[robbielyn]

Does SPC wait until a tornado is on the ground before issuing a watch or warning? No.

Unfair comparisons, theres very minute lead time with tornadoes, 20 minutes tops compared to Hurricanes or TS's which have at least 24 hours to 36 hours. Tornado watches are no guarantee of touchdown but watches have very favorable atmospheric chances of a tornado in the watch areas. 99L has up til now failed to have favorable chances for development. I think up til now it would be crying wolf with no closed low and convection being torn apart by shear. Its need some concrete consistant organization due to conditions being favorable.

[psyclone]

I don't want any extra watches/warnings. No cyclone, no deal. a potential need for immediate watches/warnings is sufficient... should development occur and that's not hard to verbalize in outlooks.

and that is going to get people killed one day, which is why the private sector already does watches and warnings pre genesis and the NHC will be going in that direction

I know they are. But I need not like it. Stateside I'd really like to see excess warning areas cleared faster when it becomes apparent a given stretch of coastline is in the clear.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like 2 spins one between the 2 big areas of convection and the other under the one on the left. Is the LLC where I put the L and the MLC where I put the M here??

[hipshot]

I've been watching this thing for days and I can't figure out if it is moving or not. If it is, it has to be crawling.

[Frank P]

There sure looks like a definite rotation on the Miami long range radar loop..... speed it up and watch

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Steve]

Yeah GP after the three hurricanes in 2004 I had the accordion shutters installed on our three story home in Hernando Beach. Haven't had to close them yet thankfully. But if I had too, all the windows could be done within an hour.

Y'all adopting old people?

You've been around for a while and know what to do. Biggest threat is some rapid deepening early in the week. I doubt it would be able to hook east after 3 or 4 days unless the ridge building back in from the SE is just behind it. I think a peninsula hit from the west is 20/30% with it being more likely to kick out farther into the Gulf before heading up and in - say somewhere between 85/86.5W or so. No call either way, but I think after SFL somewhere else in the state is likely followed by maybe South AL the way things look now ow the globals. It will probably change.

I hope you're right about this. I'd hate for it to pull a "Charley" and come straight up our way!

Oddly enough, the early 00z models are indicating the possibility. :shrug:

[Frank P]

I've been watching this thing for days and I can't figure out if it is moving or not. If it is, it has to be crawling.

Its moving, you can see that on the link I just posted referring to the Miami radar..

[BobHarlem]

A bit easier to see here http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?217

But don't be looking for a center, look for the large overall circulation

[rickybobby]

Per wesh 2 it looks sloppy and have no idea where it's going but should have a better idea tomorrow afternoon.

[chaser1]

Per wesh 2 it looks sloppy and have no idea where it's going but should have a better idea tomorrow afternoon.

You get to that point where hopeless honesty is actually refreshing lol!

[TheAustinMan]

METOP-B ASCAT pass at around 2 UTC or so. Looks closed, albeit broad, to my untrained eyes.


Source: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATBData.php

Edit: Would probably be helpful to contextualize the scatterometer data with satellite imagery, so I overlaid the two -