ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TimeZone]

Looks like no landfall in Carolina either.

[gatorcane]

GFS is closer to the GFDL track

[tolakram]

Yea, that's close enough for wobbles to count. Hopefully it will trend back east after more data is added tonight ... not sure what run will have the data though.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I expect the models to keep shifting west. I wouldn't put fort Myers to key west off the table there is to too much time between landfall and now

[miamijaaz]

What is causing this western trend in the GFS? The ridge being stronger than forecast?

[jlauderdal]

Starting to slowly move Northeast but wow. If Florida and the Carolinas all manage to just BARELY scrape by then I'm going to be shocked.

north carolina peeps hoping for a florida landfall to soften up matt as he heads north

[toad strangler]

These westward trends gotta stop...next few runs it will hit Florida.

This relentless correction W by just a small amount run to run for days has now flipped this seemingly set table upside down. I'm eye balling my shutters right now.

[Aric Dunn]

There is that bend to the left in the GFS.. I bet it gets more pronounced at 00z.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

144 hrs... Cat 5 just E of Cape Canaveral... NNW movement...

Im less than 5 miles from.the cape now..will remember the scenery before it was wiped out by Matthew...these west trends are becoming a major concern with vrery intense matthew lurking even if its 100 miles,offshire it requires max preps as it approaches

Go in the garage, remove the cover, dust off spider webs, filter the fuel, and fire up that generator... This is Code Red on your end...

[BUD]

We all know how these storms do not move on a dime also. Look at how close Floyd got to Florida before it turn.

[Aric Dunn]

150 to 155 when recon gets there I would presume.

[stormreader]

Look at that low digging into Texas. That set up happens 1 day faster and the storm a little slower and this is coming into the Gulf

Unfortunately many have forgotten that models are not foolproof, they read them as if they were reading facts about the future. Several on this board have tried to warn about the unreliability of any model run out 5 days or more. This forecast was much more difficult than usual. Now people are beginning to see the threat to the Fl peninsula. And I have maintained for days now that the gulf coast side of Fl might even have the highest threat. So yes, a trek into the Gulf is very possible. Expect some continued west shifts.

[FLpanhandle91]

If Matthew takes a track similar to that run, wouldn't Jacksonville/St. Augustine potentially be on the outer edge of hurricane force sustained/gusts?

[jlauderdal]

144 hrs... Cat 5 just E of Cape Canaveral... NNW movement...

Im less than 5 miles from.the cape now..will remember the scenery before it was wiped out by Matthew...these west trends are becoming a major concern with vrery intense matthew lurking even if its 100 miles,offshire it requires max preps as it approaches

Go in the garage, remove the cover, dust off spider webs, filter the fuel, and fire up that generator... This is Code Red on your end...

i return to sofla tomorrow..this trend continues then it will be 50 gal gas tomorrow before panic hits in sofla..side note: we are about get whacked by intensifying tstorms in titisville

[HurrMark]

SE Massachusetts gets clobbered next Sunday in this run.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wasn't going to bother but was curious. Storm ends up going into New York and the Northeast.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wasn't going to bother but was curious. Storm ends up going into the Northeast.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wasn't going to bother but was curious. Storm ends up going into New York and the Northeast.

Damn, that's a tight center for so far north. I am impressed.

[stormreader]

What is causing this western trend in the GFS? The ridge being stronger than forecast?

From the very beginning the development of high pressure to the north of the storm was the dominant force as far as storm motion forecast. But models kept picking up on possible localized weakness (maybe a ULL) which might erode the ridge or provide an escape for the storm between High over Bermuda and High over E USA. That forecast of a weakening ridge was always problematic. Meteorologists could never nail down where the weakness was supposed to come from. And now the escape window appears to be closing. The storm will approach very near Fl southern tip ( probably just West of there) and be moving very slowly as it bumps up against the ridge. It might even drift further west some. Eventually a weakness should come to pick it up. But at that time it will most assuredly have to impact Fl (probably the west coast).