ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

Is it actually centered around where that yellow dot appears in the middle? Not gonna make this guy say eye...

[Bailey1777]

Guess I should learn the definition of broad...well looks good anyway.

[hurricaneCW]

Am I missing something? This is looking really good, I'm shocked the chances are so low. I really want to see if it can keep things up for the next 12-24 hrs.

[gatorcane]

NHC I am sure is hesitant since then normally two reliable GFS and ECMWF models don't do anything with this during the next 5 days (and in the GFS case ever). That said, it is interesting the GFS is now showing a piece of 850MB energy/vorticity that moves more WNW through the Northern Caribbean, Cuba, and then Eastern Gulf while showing another 850MB vorticity that weakens heading westwards through the Caribbean sea towards the Yucatan. It wasn't showing the former 850MB vort earlier so maybe what the NHC is tracking is the one heading to the Yucatan. Do I dare say the GFS trended a little closer to the NAVGEM this cycle which has been showing 92L moving WNW through Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba or just north of, and then Southern Florida?

[floridasun78]

any one link carribbeans islands radar?

[GeneratorPower]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Looks like the convective ball has stopped. It's basically stationary.

[Gustywind]

SSD first appearence for 92L

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/2345 UTC 15.5N 60.2W T1.0/1.0 92L

[Medtronic15]

SSD first appearence for 92L

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/2345 UTC 15.5N 60.2W T1.0/1.0 92L

Very, very interesting!

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/html5-avn-short.html

Looks like the convective ball has stopped. It's basically stationary.

dont be fooled by IR..thisthing is definitely moving

[GeneratorPower]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/html5-avn-short.html

Looks like the convective ball has stopped. It's basically stationary.

dont be fooled by IR..thisthing is definitely moving

IR is still location-accurate. At least the tops of those storms are stationary. It doesn't give much of an idea of the low levels but the tops aren't moving.

[jason1912]

any one link carribbeans islands radar?

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[floridasun78]

here weather report from leedwards hightest wind is 35mph Le Raizet, Guadeloupe (78897) Weather Station Wind 20mph, 35mph gusts
Air Temp 77°f Sea Pressure 1013mb

Le Raizet, Guadeloupe http://magicseaweed.com/Le-Raizet-Guadeloupe-Weather-Station/68629/

[beoumont]

any one link carribbeans islands radar?

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&PlanetOfTheApes=1473036511

Looking closer at the charts yesterday a 40 knot straight easterly wind at 700 mb through the Carib. might be a reason the NHC is pessimistic on development; I would guess these winds are the front end of an easterly surge that periodically occurs during the season.

[chaser1]

Looking fairly good tonight, and right on schedule. Key though, will be to see if a true CDO can develop/maintain itself through the night and into tomm. If so this small core system might just surprise a few people and take on some shape as it approaches 65W

[blp]

This pass showing up to TS winds over the mid level circ. Let's see if it works it's way down. It need's this convection to continue firing through the night. Let's see what happens low level bort appears to be off to the SW of the mid level.

[blp]

Funny this looks like a July setup in the Carribean with that TUTT like upper level trough out in front. It serving to help ventilate the area but it so precariously close to getting shredded. Let's see if it can continue to keep its distance because right now it is in a good spot

[Gustywind]

any one link carribbeans islands radar?

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1470321483

[Aric Dunn]

there is definitely a sharp wave axis and convection along it. convection must maintain to counter the low level surge. we all know what happens in the eastern carrib the low level flow increases and unless the overall wave is large or the circ is already established it will not develop. NHC is not going to give it good chances in a statistically unlikely area .

[Fego]

there is definitely a sharp wave axis and convection along it. convection must maintain to counter the low level surge. we all know what happens in the eastern carrib the low level flow increases and unless the overall wave is large or the circ is already established it will not develop. NHC is not going to give it good chances in a statistically unlikely area .

Hi Aric. So, Should we expect the big blob to disappear any time soon unless a LLC is established?

[hurricanehunter69]

Looking at water vapor tonight...I'm noticing that the Tutt Low and associated dry air and shear is moving in tandem with 92L. The adverse conditions were much closer to 92L's circulation just 24 hours ago. Upper level conditions out ahead of the invest have improved today? Surprised the percentages didn't increase...however slightly? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html