ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

That's why even sheared systems cant be discounted further down the road, Nicole is an example of that as 2 days ago it looked like it was dying now its a major

So true.

[abajan]

HH's confirm Nicole is a major hurricane, lowest MSLP is 952.3mb, SFMR 99 knots.

Seems like it's headed for Cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130032
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 23 20161013
002330 2958N 06615W 6963 02880 9757 +099 +099 123094 096 089 030 00
002400 2959N 06614W 6955 02901 9765 +107 +107 126100 103 088 035 00
002430 3000N 06613W 6984 02886 9785 +110 +110 125104 109 079 049 03
002500 3001N 06611W 6949 02941 9803 +104 +104 125102 104 078 018 00
002530 3002N 06610W 6969 02934 9825 +100 +100 127099 100 078 016 00
002600 3003N 06609W 6974 02942 9846 +093 +093 129095 098 077 007 00
002630 3004N 06608W 6966 02968 9852 +095 +095 127090 093 077 008 00
002700 3005N 06606W 6967 02974 9869 +096 +096 130089 090 073 008 00
002730 3006N 06605W 6965 02988 9870 +097 +097 129085 087 071 008 00
002800 3007N 06604W 6966 02997 9876 +097 +097 132082 084 067 010 00
002830 3008N 06602W 6966 03004 9893 +094 +094 137082 084 065 010 00
002900 3009N 06601W 6970 03009 9902 +095 +095 138083 084 065 009 03
002930 3011N 06600W 6964 03021 9913 +099 +099 139082 084 066 017 00
003000 3012N 06558W 6973 03014 9916 +103 +103 141080 083 065 017 03
003030 3013N 06557W 6965 03034 9930 +101 +101 145086 087 064 014 03
003100 3014N 06555W 6966 03036 9935 +101 +101 144076 084 062 012 00
003130 3015N 06554W 6966 03043 9946 +098 +098 147073 074 061 011 00
003200 3017N 06552W 6967 03051 9945 +098 +098 144072 073 061 008 00
003230 3018N 06551W 6965 03055 9950 +097 +097 141077 080 057 009 03
003300 3019N 06549W 6968 03059 9976 +089 +089 141080 083 056 011 00
$$
;

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Should have renamed this storm rocky, impressive comeback.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 130042
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152016
A. 13/00:15:10Z
B. 29 deg 39 min N
066 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2713 m
D. 81 kt
E. 208 deg 10 nm
F. 310 deg 89 kt
G. 211 deg 11 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 13 C / 3059 m
J. 18 C / 3047 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0315A NICOLE OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 109 KT 042 / 27 NM 00:24:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 040 / 11 KT
;

Pressure confirmed at 954mb based on the dropsonde.

[Kazmit]

HH's confirm Nicole is a major hurricane, lowest MSLP is 952.3mb, SFMR 99 knots.

Seems like it's headed for Cat 4.

Oh yikes. Could it be worse than Fabian? This could be one of Bermuda's worst storms...ever.

[Hammy]

Congratulations to whoever it was (I can't remember specifically) that called this as a future major hurricane several days before it even formed.

[Hurricaneman]

Congratulations to whoever it was (I can't remember specifically) that called this as a future major hurricane several days before it even formed.

Alyono I believe

[TheAustinMan]

Dropsonde indicates 114kt wind at splashdown, supportive of a strong Category 3 hurricane (and maybe lends credence to a Category 4).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:43pm EDT:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Congratulations to whoever it was (I can't remember specifically) that called this as a future major hurricane several days before it even formed.

That would be what the models were showing at that time i believe.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde indicates 114kt wind at splashdown, supportive of a strong Category 3 hurricane (and maybe lends credence to a Category 4).

Wow the dropsondes were consistently above the SFMR and flight level adjusted winds with Matthew as well - interesting. I'd probably go 105 or 110 kt with that.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130053
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 25 20161013
004330 3044N 06518W 6972 03115 0046 +094 +094 152069 072 055 026 00
004400 3045N 06517W 6962 03129 0049 +093 +093 144069 070 052 028 00
004430 3046N 06515W 6960 03129 0047 +093 +093 146070 071 048 018 00
004500 3047N 06514W 6958 03130 0047 +090 +090 146069 071 050 012 00
004530 3048N 06512W 6977 03113 0049 +090 +090 147068 069 051 010 00
004600 3050N 06511W 6961 03136 0054 +091 +091 142068 070 048 013 00
004630 3051N 06509W 6968 03125 0055 +091 +091 140066 068 049 013 00
004700 3052N 06508W 6959 03138 0058 +089 +089 137069 071 049 015 00
004730 3053N 06506W 6965 03129 0061 +089 +089 134068 071 049 025 00
004800 3054N 06505W 6959 03137 0061 +090 +090 132064 069 048 022 00
004830 3055N 06503W 6964 03132 0068 +088 +088 136066 070 045 017 00
004900 3056N 06502W 6967 03132 0078 +076 //// 138064 065 045 012 05
004930 3058N 06501W 6953 03153 //// +065 //// 135063 063 /// /// 05
005000 3059N 06503W 6967 03137 //// +056 //// 129058 063 /// /// 05
005030 3059N 06505W 6965 03140 0080 +071 //// 130057 059 /// /// 05
005100 3058N 06507W 6959 03141 0064 +085 //// 132056 058 050 015 01
005130 3058N 06510W 6969 03126 0063 +087 +087 131060 062 052 014 00
005200 3058N 06512W 6967 03121 0056 +088 +088 130062 064 051 018 00
005230 3057N 06515W 6970 03120 0057 +089 +089 133061 062 051 018 00
005300 3057N 06517W 6966 03126 0058 +089 +089 136058 060 053 023 00
$$
;

Wind field is quite large.

[hurricanehunter69]

Congratulations to whoever it was (I can't remember specifically) that called this as a future major hurricane several days before it even formed.

aww man...I was hoping you would remember me. Thanx though! Too bad for Bermuda....It's looking like a direct impact for them. Well, it turned out to be a hell of a season! Wonder if mother nature has any more surprises...( NW Caribbean )?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130102
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 26 20161013
005330 3057N 06519W 6967 03124 0058 +091 +091 138065 066 053 023 00
005400 3057N 06522W 6964 03124 0047 +091 +091 131060 066 050 029 00
005430 3057N 06524W 6969 03118 0050 +091 +091 129060 062 056 016 00
005500 3057N 06527W 6977 03112 0052 +090 +090 126058 063 059 015 00
005530 3057N 06529W 6960 03125 0047 +089 +089 121054 056 055 019 00
005600 3057N 06532W 6974 03112 0052 +091 +091 120056 059 055 019 00
005630 3056N 06534W 6960 03126 0047 +091 +091 131060 063 056 017 00
005700 3056N 06537W 6970 03115 0046 +091 +091 131064 067 059 015 00
005730 3056N 06539W 6968 03114 0038 +091 +091 132063 067 059 014 00
005800 3056N 06541W 6961 03120 0038 +091 +091 127061 062 061 011 00
005830 3056N 06544W 6957 03124 0034 +092 +092 125062 064 060 009 00
005900 3056N 06546W 6966 03112 0032 +090 +090 118062 064 060 009 03
005930 3056N 06549W 6964 03115 0031 +092 +092 118062 065 060 008 00
010000 3055N 06552W 6968 03107 0035 +088 +088 117063 064 057 009 00
010030 3055N 06554W 6966 03110 0034 +086 +086 116059 061 059 008 00
010100 3055N 06557W 6967 03107 0037 +084 +084 115059 061 061 011 00
010130 3055N 06559W 6962 03109 0031 +086 +086 112061 063 060 011 00
010200 3055N 06602W 6961 03107 0028 +090 +090 111061 062 060 012 00
010230 3055N 06604W 6966 03099 0022 +093 +093 112063 066 055 015 03
010300 3055N 06607W 6972 03099 0027 +093 +093 115063 068 062 009 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

I went with 105 kt for my weekly graphic in terms of intensity. Gave a bit of weight for the dropsonde but that seems high compared to the other data.

[Alyono]

you cannot use a surface wind from a dropsonde. You have to measure the mean boundary layer wind and take 85 percent of it

[NDG]

Hello to the 3rd Major Hurricane of the season. To think that just a week ago it was supposed to die off because of northerly shear.

[toad strangler]

Hello to the 3rd Major Hurricane of the season. To think that just a week ago it was supposed to die off because of northerly shear.

NOAA late season forecast ramp up FTW

Impressed

[abajan]

Congratulations to whoever it was (I can't remember specifically) that called this as a future major hurricane several days before it even formed.

... Too bad for Bermuda....It's looking like a direct impact for them. ...

I still have a hunch the eye is going to pass just to the southeast of the island, putting them on the weaker side of the circulation. Of course, if it's a major hurricane when it passes (and all indications are that it will be), the impact would still be severe, just not as bad as if it were to pass to the northwest. However you slice it, the situation really doesn't look good at all.