ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It's not like this GFS run is a surprise. The trend towards Florida has been there for a couple of days now. The big question is how long will this west trend continue?

[stormreader]

What is causing this western trend in the GFS? The ridge being stronger than forecast?

Been out on a limb saying that for last 2-3 days.

[OntarioEggplant]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

[centuryv58]

It's not like this GFS run is a surprise. The trend towards Florida has been there for a couple of days now. The big question is how long will this west trend continue?

If it continues too long it will end up in the Gulf. One or two here already mentioned that a few days ago.

[TheStormExpert]

This is ridiculous! These gradual trends west even just 3-5 days out with any given model(not just the GFS) shows you there is ALOT of work needing to be done to improve these models.

[wxmann_91]

What is causing this western trend in the GFS? The ridge being stronger than forecast?

The key is 1) the cutoff that was originally forecasted to hang around in the northwest Atlantic is no longer there, 2) the ULL over the Gulf drops south and retreats. This opens to the door for the Bermuda Ridge to build back west in advance of an amplifying trof over the central United States. Just enough to push Matthew west enough to get real close to the U.S.

Of course, in subsequent runs either the cutoff or the ULL could return, so this could easily shift back east or OTS at any time.

[stormreader]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

Ontario, that emergence into the GOM near Key West ( some slow drift further west with the almost sure stall) then a pick up to the N or NNE would be worst case scenario for Tampa.

[centuryv58]

What is causing this western trend in the GFS? The ridge being stronger than forecast?

The key is 1) the cutoff that was originally forecasted to hang around in the northwest Atlantic is no longer there, 2) the ULL over the Gulf drops south and retreats. This opens to the door for the Bermuda Ridge to build back west in advance of an amplifying trof over the central United States. Just enough to give Matthew enough of a heading to get real close Florida.

Of course, in subsequent runs either the cutoff or the ULL could return, so this could easily shift back east or OTS at any time.

OTS easily is really not in any cards.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This is ridiculous! These gradual trends west even just 3-5 days out with any given model(not just the GFS) shows you there is ALOT of work needing to be done to improve these models.

http://i66.tinypic.com/21n37nq.jpg

The GFS has been super accurate with just small corrections and these over 4-5 days and more. If you're expecting accuracy at this range you're going to have to hop in a time machine and transform yourself to maybe 2050.

[La Sirena]

It's not like this GFS run is a surprise. The trend towards Florida has been there for a couple of days now. The big question is how long will this west trend continue?

I'm watching and agreeing! It's hard to evacuate the Keys. Even if we don't evacuate as the landfall happens north of us on the mainland ALL of our water and electric comes from Miami....not mention any trucks with supplies. We are fully stocked here and always prepared to either bug out or stay put for a couple of months. Our only downfall--no generator. Ok. Freak out complete. Lol. I know that Jamaica could have it much worse. Feel terrible for what they could be facing.

[wxmann_91]

What is causing this western trend in the GFS? The ridge being stronger than forecast?

The key is 1) the cutoff that was originally forecasted to hang around in the northwest Atlantic is no longer there, 2) the ULL over the Gulf drops south and retreats. This opens to the door for the Bermuda Ridge to build back west in advance of an amplifying trof over the central United States. Just enough to give Matthew enough of a heading to get real close Florida.

Of course, in subsequent runs either the cutoff or the ULL could return, so this could easily shift back east or OTS at any time.

OTS easily is really not in any cards.

It's very much possible still. I explained it throughly in my post why and what features are critical.

We're no clearer on the outcome now then we were 24 hours ago. If this solution persists for a 1-2 more days, then we can start raising red flags.

[stormreader]

This is ridiculous! These gradual trends west even just 3-5 days out with any given model(not just the GFS) shows you there is ALOT of work needing to be done to improve these models.

http://i66.tinypic.com/21n37nq.jpg

Has anyone ever thought about the possibility that the models might almost be too fine tuned, too delicate. The ridge was always the dominant feature. But the models kept picking up on what's looking like phantom weaknesses. ULL's that forecasters couldn't find. The model simply HAD to be right, until it was wrong. The GFS was the worst. All of its ensembles took the storm way east of Fl following weaknesses which looks like won't be there.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS keeps trending stronger with the ridging to the north of this within the next 5-7 days.

[FLpanhandle91]

How fast do these weaknesses in a ridge form? At what, with a building ridge, can we determine that weakness (ULL) will not develop in time to create a path OTS?

[KWT]

Well that is getting closer and closer to Florida now, and although it does recurve east of the carolinas, that is so close and just a slight delay is going to result in a landfalling major hurricane.

[sma10]

The key is 1) the cutoff that was originally forecasted to hang around in the northwest Atlantic is no longer there, 2) the ULL over the Gulf drops south and retreats. This opens to the door for the Bermuda Ridge to build back west in advance of an amplifying trof over the central United States. Just enough to give Matthew enough of a heading to get real close Florida.

Of course, in subsequent runs either the cutoff or the ULL could return, so this could easily shift back east or OTS at any time.

OTS easily is really not in any cards.

It's very much possible still. I explained it throughly in my post why and what features are critical.

We're no clearer on the outcome now then we were 24 hours ago. If this solution persists for a 1-2 more days, then we can start raising red flags.

I agree with this. NEVER underestimate the percentages of a TC turning out to sea.
But i think what is happening here is less a shift west but rather a slowing of speed (yes, I realize these two variables are connected). But bottom line: speed will play such a big role here. As long as GFS continues to marginally slow, it will allow the ridge to build while it's still relatively far South, creating all sorts of bad possibilities. If it goes too slow it may end up just far enough east to avoid land. Tricky.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

A storm of this magnitude would make katrina look like a light summer rain storm to the point that standing on a rooftop wouldnt be an option for higher ground because it would submerge them

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS has Matthew's closest approach to Florida's East Coast @144hrs. just off the Space Coast.

Praying that things trend WELL east starting tonight for the sake of Florida, The Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Nhc may shift the cone west 25 miles I would think???

[KWT]

That is a very close pass to Florida on the 18z.

If the NHC replicated the GFS track, Florida would be well within the cone of error at this stage.