ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[La Sirena]

development chances are increasing rapidly. May be close to 90% now

Development....today? Or is this once it hits the GOM?

overall development chances

Excellent! Thanks for the clarification. Wasn't sure if I just missed something.

[chris_fit]

GM All!

Is this an LLC we see this morning? Just WSW of Andros

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Rail Dawg]

Will be flying (pilot) along western edge of system in about 6 hours on the way from NYC to Cancun. We have the ability to ask the air traffic folks to let us scoot in a little closer while of course keeping everything safe

I like watching the winds shift and speed change at the Flight Levels as we head south. Today's GPS's are quite accurate and our on-board weather radar gives us a unique sideways look at the action.

Sat pics and models are great but nothing beats what many of us spent years doing and that is observing the weather the old-fashioned way!

I agree when this storm gets named it should be named 99L lol.

[jlauderdal]

GM All!

Is this an LLC we see this morning? Just WSW of Andros

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

mlc...remember long range is looking up the farther away you go...there is definite turning but to be clear nothing imminent as far as LLC..wet and breezy for SE florida next 3-5 days, the influence of this system will be with us all week, how much actual rain it can produce is in question...panhandle big bend potential much larger problems

EricBlake128 mins
#99L coming into Key West radar range in the #Florida Straits this morning- broad rotation noted https://t.co/a5yMl8H0QH

[SunnyThoughts]

Will be flying (pilot) along western edge of system in about 6 hours on the way from NYC to Cancun. We have the ability to ask the air traffic folks to let us scoot in a little closer while of course keeping everything safe

I like watching the winds shift and speed change at the Flight Levels as we head south. Today's GPS's are quite accurate and our on-board weather radar gives us a unique sideways look at the action.

Sat pics and models are great but nothing beats what many of us spent years doing and that is observing the weather the old-fashioned way!

I agree when this storm gets named it should be named 99L lol.

Good luck and be careful Rail Dawg. Speaking of "flights" I'm betting the Hurricane Hunters go as planned this afternoon as opposed to being cancelled as they have been the last day or two.

[Nimbus]

GM All!

Is this an LLC we see this morning? Just WSW of Andros

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That is mid level, this was low level still elongated and close to Cuba

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central
Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for
significant development today while this system moves westward
through the Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba
through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread
into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[tolakram]

Here's a faster loop from WU. Didn't I say I thought this was done yesterday?

[NDG]

Sounds like Brennan is siding with the GFS, of slower & weaker development than what the rest of the models show.

[Frank P]

Here's a faster loop from WU. Didn't I say I thought this was done yesterday?

Well that sure looks like a LLC just south of the Keys from that radar loop... heading due west.. or its spitting out another little vortex!

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a faster loop from WU. Didn't I say I thought this was done yesterday?

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/60KCHTO.gif[/img]

Well that sure looks like a LLC just south of the Keys from that radar loop... heading due west.. or its spitting out another little vortex!

I think that is the LLC that formed yesterday south of Andros and has outraced the MLC once again. I think we've seen this several times now where a surface circulation gets going only to out run the overall MLC gyre.

[Frank P]

If you look at the last few frames from the rapid scan vis it does hint of trying to form some new convection off to its NE and SE, with perhaps some banding features??? ... zoom and speed up..

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... height=700

[NDG]

It appears to me that the circulation just east of Key West is just yet another eddy rotating WSW around the larger circulation, mid level circulation is much closer now.

[ronjon]

development chances are increasing rapidly. May be close to 90% now

Alyono..what's your reasoning? Model consensus? Improved upper air forecasts? Your favorite model still keeping it weak.

[ronjon]

It appears to me that the circulation just east of Key West is just yet another eddy rotating WSW around the larger circulation, mid level circulation is much closer now.

Agreed NDG. Thinking low pressure will have to eventually form underneath that mid level center. But it needs more convection to do that.

[hipshot]

From that rapid scan radar just posted, it seemed like the last few frames showed a fairly tight circulation due east of the cluster of
islands in the keys moving pretty much due west.

[Frank P]

convection tops getting blown off, shear will prevent much from happening anytime soon... maybe another 24 hours or so... gee, been thinking that same thought for days on end...

[GCANE]

Obviously getting a feed of dry air in from the north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like skys are clear over much of S FL.
Expecting to see pop up convection this afternoon over FL feed into 99L and moisten the mid levels.
Could help develop it Sunday night.