ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Rapid Scan view: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=150&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1000

Saved animated GIF from that loop


I'm using a tool called ScreenToGif, open source, for the PC: https://screentogif.codeplex.com/

[NDG]

It appears to me that the circulation just east of Key West is just yet another eddy rotating WSW around the larger circulation, mid level circulation is much closer now.

Agreed NDG. Thinking low pressure will have to eventually form underneath that mid level center. But it needs more convection to do that.

Definitely just an eddy rotating around near Key West, bigger circulation to the east of it, IMO.

[tolakram]

I can't stop watching the rapid scan of sunrise, the cloud deck of 91L and 99L.

This is a big image with 175 frames.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=175&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=1500

[HurriGuy]

Development chances today should still be around 0-20%. Just for today

More interested in tomorrow because the ULL bringing in the dry air and sheer will be in the process of slowing down it's movement west

[NDG]

One thing different this morning is that the surface circulation is more defined and talking up a larger area.

[HurriGuy]

It is also hard for me to believe the exposed circulation we see on visible will be the main feature. It has looked the same every morning with an exposed circulation dying off as the morning progresses.

[xcool22]

have feelings soon as get in gom kaboom imo.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear, like it has been doing recently, will keep this storm in check. Without it this system is already a named storm. Every time any system threatens land it is shear that appears. Without it someone living on the Gulf of Mexico would no doubt have a bad storm with how much of a fight this system is putting up. It may make for boring weather but the boring part has saved lives. I see the center is exposed once again and racing west into the keys. Still very disorganized.

[NDG]

12z Best Track has it on the circulation just east of Key West, which with respect I disagree with them otherwise pressures would been much lower along the Key.
If this is just an eddy, I am sure it threw off intensity models off.

[HurriGuy]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-81.36,22.06,3000/loc=-80.002,23.300

Zoom in on 99L. That is where the broad circulation is. Not buying into best track location

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-0-24&checked=pfalls,vort&prodDim=100&overDim=100

Yeah vorticity is back southeast a tad.

[TimeZone]

Shear once again putting a beating on little 99L. It's going to run out of time eventually.

[jlauderdal]

Obviously getting a feed of dry air in from the north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like skys are clear over much of S FL.
Expecting to see pop up convection this afternoon over FL feed into 99L and moisten the mid levels.
Could help develop it Sunday night.

its cleared out over sofla...breezy and partly cloudy, no sign of heavy rains

[gulf701]

From the wind field data at earth.nullschool.net, the circulation is about half way between tip of Florida and Cuba. The northern side is a lot stronger than the southern side. The interaction with Cuba is disrupting the flow enough to prevent circulation to increase. A little further West might see a change in development.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tropicwatch]

I believe the main circulation to be in the vicinity of the circled area.

[GCANE]

Obviously getting a feed of dry air in from the north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like skys are clear over much of S FL.
Expecting to see pop up convection this afternoon over FL feed into 99L and moisten the mid levels.
Could help develop it Sunday night.

its cleared out over sofla...breezy and partly cloudy, no sign of heavy rains

CAPE over the glades went from 1500 to 2500 the last 15 min.
Sun could continue to destabilize the air.

[rolltide]

I believe the main circulation to be in the vicinity of the circled area.

I agree Panama

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/769905552008814592

[HurriGuy]

It is strictly a southernly inflow now.

[jlauderdal]

Obviously getting a feed of dry air in from the north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like skys are clear over much of S FL.
Expecting to see pop up convection this afternoon over FL feed into 99L and moisten the mid levels.
Could help develop it Sunday night.

its cleared out over sofla...breezy and partly cloudy, no sign of heavy rains

CAPE over the glades went from 1500 to 2500 the last 15 min.
Sun could continue to destabilize the air.

the clear out ended...raining ne fllnand lowering cloud deck to the east