ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Check models thread. HWRF stronger and a significant hurricane with landfall just north of Tampa Bay area.

hwrf has been very very persistent..

The HWRF's persistence, combined with the NHC mentioning the system moving north and then northeast in the eastern Gulf has me pretty worried over here. Seems now just a question of how strong it's going to be when it comes to the northern/central west coast of Florida versus whether it will come this way at all.

[CrazyC83]

Regarding that potential hard hook, one thing I might be seeing is a combination of TD8 forcing a trough down and a ridge rebuilding over the western Gulf? I know it is weird for August (more of an October or November track) but regardless, forward motion should be slow.

[GCANE]

99L is being squeezed between two ULL, I doubt the upper air pattern changes much the next couple of days. I am beginning to have doubts that 99L will ever develop into a named system.....MGC

I will have to disagree. The ULL over Texas/LA will be the first to go. Then the one near the Carolinas.

The trend has been 99L will be a slow mover in the Gulf. The more it lingers, the better environment will get. Just my opinion though

I agree. I like to look at this WV to assess the strength of an ULL:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

If they are dark black, indicating subsidence (cold, dry air pushing down), then they are strong.

If they fill in with a lot of WV (white, or shades there of), then they are weak.

[HurriGuy]

Regarding that potential hard hook, one thing I might be seeing is a combination of TD8 forcing a trough down and a ridge rebuilding over the western Gulf? I know it is weird for August (more of an October or November track) but regardless, forward motion should be slow.

Yep. Have been thinking this all week. 3 more days possible IMO over the Gulf. GFS slightly trending west ever so slightly each run.

[psyclone]

Back to 80%. the old high water mark. considering the bathwater in the gulf there must be at least some potential for rapid development if something can get going. I hope everyone in the potential threatened area (NHC says north and then northeast movement so that kinda narrows it down) is ready for quick action should that become necessary.

[NDG]

I am almost 100% convinced that the recon will find TD 9, it is organizing a lot faster than I even thought.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281744
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 04 20160828
173430 2553N 08247W 7814 02261 0125 +159 +104 077023 023 025 000 00
173500 2551N 08247W 7814 02262 0124 +161 +100 082022 022 024 000 00
173530 2548N 08248W 7813 02262 0126 +158 +101 084022 022 025 000 00
173600 2546N 08248W 7816 02255 0123 +157 +103 086021 021 024 000 00
173630 2544N 08249W 7817 02253 0124 +153 +110 085021 021 024 000 00
173700 2542N 08249W 7818 02252 0124 +153 +115 084020 021 023 000 00
173730 2540N 08250W 7816 02255 0126 +152 +116 085021 021 024 000 00
173800 2538N 08250W 7893 02173 0126 +153 +127 081020 021 024 000 00
173830 2536N 08251W 8016 02039 0127 +160 +136 081022 022 022 000 00
173900 2535N 08251W 8135 01913 0128 +167 +140 085022 022 024 000 00
173930 2533N 08252W 8270 01771 0128 +175 +144 085023 024 023 000 00
174000 2531N 08252W 8446 01591 0129 +185 +151 085024 025 024 000 00
174030 2529N 08253W 8630 01405 0128 +199 +153 085026 027 024 000 00
174100 2527N 08253W 8814 01221 0128 +210 +165 085024 025 025 000 00
174130 2525N 08254W 8995 01048 0130 +216 +187 084023 025 025 000 00
174200 2523N 08254W 9021 01022 0130 +218 +196 081023 024 025 000 00
174230 2521N 08255W 9045 00996 0131 +213 +201 084022 022 025 000 00
174300 2519N 08255W 9042 01001 0131 +213 +202 081022 023 026 000 00
174330 2517N 08256W 9040 01001 0130 +216 +204 074022 023 025 000 00
174400 2516N 08256W 9042 01000 0129 +215 +200 075023 023 025 000 00

Operational altitude.

[stormreader]

Left lingering in SE or Central Gulf senario?? Not sold at this point on the hook northeast which is dominant forecast. As system clears the straits and enters GOM it should feel the influence of the ULL over Tex-La coast. So should be a north component. But my understanding is that this effect will gradually be weakening at that time. Ridging beginning to reassert itself. If that is the case you would have a strengthening storm/hurricane lingering in the north east or north central GOM. In my mind (at this time of year) you might find a slow drift wnw. depends on how much ridging builds back in on northern Gulf coast. I think there is a lot of healthy skepticism right now about this late Aug hook into the Big Bend or Tampa area.

In all due respect to you stormreader, there has been and continues to be healthty skepticism all the way around with 99L for going on now for over a week. It doesn't matter, the models, synoptic setup etc...

I understand Jax. That's why I mentioned the "healthy skepticism". This is my first post on 99l and I wNted my 2 cents to be placed on the "skeptical" side as far as what we've seen from some of the models.

[GCANE]

Cloud top is real close to -80C on GEO

[CrazyC83]

If both TD8 and this are found to be at TS intensity, this becomes Ian and TD8 becomes Hermine?

[Aric Dunn]

right now 99l has the deepest convection out of the entire atlantic lol..

[Frank P]

I think no later than 12 hours to be classified, maybe as early as 5 as you say... watching the radar and rapid scan almost as good as recon, but not quite!

Alright you guys... wanna make this fun lol? My $50.00 to your $25.00 contribution each to S2K bet! I say "no T.D. Classification" by 11:30pm tonight

Not betting! But you can see clearly on Tolakram's radar loop just how quickly t-storms to the east are catching up to the center. Also see beginnings of t-storm firing to north of center.

Regardless, I just sent in my 25 bucks... win, lose or draw... OK, now I have decided to bet... why not... challenge accepted

[CrazyC83]

Regarding that potential hard hook, one thing I might be seeing is a combination of TD8 forcing a trough down and a ridge rebuilding over the western Gulf? I know it is weird for August (more of an October or November track) but regardless, forward motion should be slow.

Yep. Have been thinking this all week. 3 more days possible IMO over the Gulf. GFS slightly trending west ever so slightly each run.

I believe the stronger that TD8 gets (if we get a solid TS out of that) the stronger the steering influence will be. Not unlike when Bonnie opened up a trough for Charley (which was unseasonably strong to begin with).

[gatorcane]

looks like it might be even more WSW, the LLC is becoming better defined...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[GCANE]

Just starting to get a pop up south of Lake O.
Should see more soon.

[stormreader]

99L is being squeezed between two ULL, I doubt the upper air pattern changes much the next couple of days. I am beginning to have doubts that 99L will ever develop into a named system.....MGC

I will have to disagree. The ULL over Texas/LA will be the first to go. Then the one near the Carolinas.

The trend has been 99L will be a slow mover in the Gulf. The more it lingers, the better environment will get. Just my opinion though

Thats my feeling also Hurr Guy. ULL influence in the short term, but then rebuilding ridge and a slow moving (probably WNW) storm in the central GOM.

[bamajammer4eva]

If both TD8 and this are found to be at TS intensity, this becomes Ian and TD8 becomes Hermine?

Looks that way

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/769950006031872001

[Agua]

Its looking pretty healthy, well, for 99l it is.

[Dave C]

so is the low level circ. still displaced to the west of the mid level circ? There still seems to be 2 areas of turning on radar.

[Blinhart]

I say TD at next update unless Recon finds TS strength winds then TS.