ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

It's been that kind of year. It started with the tropical low that never got classified, and flooded LA. A lot of fringe cases that are subjective. Hermine was like that for a couple of days until it finally blew up.

[LarryWx]

It got quiet in here...does anyone think this gets at least a TD classification?

I don't think it can be given that designation as of yet due to the lack of stacking caused by strong shear from the SW. A new LLC would need to form under the offshore MLC, which isn't impossible.

Meanwhile, the big wx story from this right now is that many in the SE including yourself should get plenty of rain this week from this even if it doesn't become a TC. Together with our heavy from Hermine, SEP rainfall totals are liable to end up quite high.

4 PM update: The Villages, FL, still has the lowest pressure at an even lower 1010 mb. The lowest on the coast remains at 1013 mb (Daytona). So, it is still not stacked due to shear from the SW.

After examining many of the hourly readings of the last couple of days, I've decided to throw out The Villages' pressure readings. It clearly has a low pressure bias as it has consistently been about 3-4 mb lower than the nearby stations of Ocala and Orlando. So, in reality its pressure has been near 1013-1015 mb.

So, after throwing out The Villages, the lowest SLP inland is as of 5 PM in the low 29.90's/just over 1013 mb (Orlando, Ocala and vicinity). The lowest on the coast is actually slightly lower at Daytona (29.89"/1012.7 mb). Ocala has solid northerly winds while Daytona has solid southerly winds. So, the LLC must be between Daytona and Orlando, which is not as far inland as I thought a little while ago and isn't as strong as I thought. So, it isn't as unstacked as I earlier thought meaning it may not be as difficult to later get a new LLC to form underneath the MLC offshore though I still wouldn't consider that likely as of yet and it is clearly still not stacked.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep, it's not dead yet! I just hope it doesnt stall and hang and and flood someone.

[MississippiMan]

Wish the rain would come to the land mass between Louisiana and Alabama!!!

[floridasun78]

been dry here south fl some storm to my east and west far inland

[floridasun78]

here webcam at
St Augustine Pier HD http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/st- ... ida_90680/ look tropical storm off beach here other one from Flagler Beach http://flaglersurf.com/webcam/

[xironman]

Pretty easy to locate it now

[Evil Jeremy]

Pretty easy to locate it now

I'm looking forward to that rolling over Jacksonville tonight, should be a cool sight!

[Agua]

:flag: Wish the rain would come to the land mass between Louisiana and Alabama!!!

Hush. All that would do is make the grass grow, then you have to cut it.

[terstorm1012]

I'm not sure why this would get an upgrade in post-analysis. There's little evidence of sustained winds anywhere. Would love to hear peoples' thinking on this

[LarryWx]

Wow, is that the true surface center just south of St. Augustine or is that another MLC? IF it is surface, that could mean trouble as it now has more convection wrapping into it and it may be in the process of reforming closer to the MLC and going offshore. Also, it looks like it is wrapping up more tightly. Regardless, whatever it is, it it now looks like it may be heading offshore soon. This bears watching more closely now for obvious reasons.

Note that as of 6 PM, St. Augustine (just to the north of this center) had 1014 mb SLP that was falling slowly and E winds at a whopping 30 mph sustained! IF those strong east winds are pressure gradient based winds as opposed to mainly thunderstorm generated, this is consistent with a tight surface low just to their south.

[xironman]

30 kt at St Augustine http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SAUF1

[johngaltfla]

I'm not sure why this would get an upgrade in post-analysis. There's little evidence of sustained winds anywhere. Would love to hear peoples' thinking on this

There is a historical precedent for TC's to form over land. It's rare but it does happen. If the LLC and MLC stack, then it probably will see a sharp pressure drop and increase in winds to justify the upgrade. Right now, the shear is keeping them apart but making for some fascinating weather over eastern Florida.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Wow, is that the true surface center just south of St. Augustine or is that another MLC? IF it is surface, that could mean trouble as it now has more convection wrapping into it and it may be in the process of reforming closer to the MLC and going offshore. Also, it looks like it is wrapping up more tightly. Regardless, whatever it is, it it now looks like it may be heading offshore soon. This bears watching more closely now for obvious reasons.

Note that as of 6 PM, St. Augustine (just to the north of this center) had 1014 mb SLP that was falling slowly and E winds at a whopping 30 mph sustained! IF those strong east winds are pressure gradient based winds as opposed to mainly thunderstorm generated, this is consistent with a tight surface low just to their south.

7 PM update:
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PALM COAST CLOUDY 73 73 100 E12G17 29.89R FOG
ST AUGUSTINE LGT RAIN 75 73 94 E33G41 29.91F FOG

Wow, look at St. Augustine's east winds at 33 gusting to 41!. They fell 1 mb from 1014 mb to 1013 mb. Palm Coast, which is located 20 miles south, has a slightly lower pressure but they still have east winds. I don't know what to think here.

[NDG]

Gusting to 45 mph in St Augustine.

UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.90 inches Hg (1012.6 mb)
Winds: from the E (100 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
gusting to 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 1.50 miles (2.41 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL

[CrazyC83]

This reminds me of the system in October 2011 which was a borderline case (but IMO rightfully unnamed).

[JaxGator]

The band associated with the center (and hitting St. Augustine) is about to hit my locale and it's getting darker. The clouds are looming overhead and they look ominous. It'll probably be the worst rain band yet but I'll see what happens. It's also providing a nice sunset.

[northjaxpro]

Gust to 41 mph at St.Augustine last hour.

Solid area.of.bands moving ashore in St.Augustine andup to Ponte Vedra Beach currently. Goingto be an interesting night for squalls over NE FL area. Will keep you all posted.

[LarryWx]

Waiting to see what the 8PM TWO will say.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-70% - Advisories likely at 11 PM EDT

Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near St. Augustine,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along and just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system
has been maintaining its organization through the afternoon and
early evening, and advisories will likely be initiated later this
evening. The low is expected to move north-northwestward to
northward at 10 to 15 mph tonight, near and parallel to the
northeast coast of Florida. Strong gusty winds, some to tropical
storm force, will continue over portions of the northeast Florida
coast tonight, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central
and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday. Some areas from
northeast Florida to South Carolina could receive 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Please
consult your local National Weather Service office for additional
information on this system, including possible warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent