ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

Recon already finding TS force winds, just west of possible LLC.

180330 2501N 08208W 9711 00366 0119 +261 +228 075030 030 037 000 00
180400 2501N 08206W 9711 00366 0119 +260 +229 078030 030 034 000 00

That is almost due N of the suspected center...check the coords

[SeGaBob]

More important thing is the well-defined LLC. Let's see if they find one.

[gatorcane]

another thing to realize is that as it moves further west, inflow should improve as the Western side of Cuba is generally pretty flat.

[Sanibel]

I think climatology would force formation if you combine 42mph with a west wind.

[NDG]

Recon already finding TS force winds, just west of possible LLC.

180330 2501N 08208W 9711 00366 0119 +261 +228 075030 030 037 000 00
180400 2501N 08206W 9711 00366 0119 +260 +229 078030 030 034 000 00

they are north of the keys still not sure what their operational altitude will be. check reports in the keys for obs.

They are already at operational altitude, 366 meters.

[Blinhart]

Recon already finding TS force winds, just west of possible LLC.

180330 2501N 08208W 9711 00366 0119 +261 +228 075030 030 037 000 00
180400 2501N 08206W 9711 00366 0119 +260 +229 078030 030 034 000 00

they are north of the keys still not sure what their operational altitude will be. check reports in the keys for obs.

Suppose to get down to 1500 ft if I remember correctly

[NDG]

Recon already finding TS force winds, just west of possible LLC.

180330 2501N 08208W 9711 00366 0119 +261 +228 075030 030 037 000 00
180400 2501N 08206W 9711 00366 0119 +260 +229 078030 030 034 000 00

That is almost due N of the suspected center...check the coords

I meant to type western quadrant of the storm

[Blinhart]

Looks like it is a race between the 2 recons to find a closed LLC in the two to find out which one will be "H" and which one will be "I"

[SeGaBob]

While no one is paying attention Euro is trending weaker and more stretched out.

[GCANE]

New update on core temp.
0.5C at 10 km, no inversion.

[Aric Dunn]

24.2 81.1 is my best guess given the radar ans sat .. convection being pushed south.. could have multiple relocation back into convection though while under shear.

[gatorcane]

Euro is weaker but it is showing a more pronounced NE turn in the East-Central Gulf and has shifted landfall in Florida a bit to the east but still north of the HWRF which shows a significant hurricane into the Nature Coast of Florida.

[tarheelprogrammer]

While no one is paying attention Euro is trending weaker and more stretched out.

Much weaker. All strung out and seems typical of the basin in recent years. So, ECMWF and GFS agree on track and strength now. Probably will not amount to much. You never know though.

[Blinhart]

Are they gonna do a Global Hawk Drone Flight to drop some dropsondes around the GoM? That they can get some upper air readings for the models?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281814
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 07 20160828
180430 2501N 08204W 9711 00366 0119 +260 +229 077029 029 032 000 00
180500 2501N 08203W 9711 00365 0119 +260 +229 076029 029 030 000 00
180530 2501N 08201W 9711 00366 0119 +261 +229 080029 029 030 000 00
180600 2501N 08159W 9712 00364 0118 +261 +230 083026 027 030 000 00
180630 2501N 08157W 9712 00365 0118 +260 +232 083025 026 029 000 00
180700 2501N 08156W 9711 00366 0119 +258 +237 080025 026 031 000 00
180730 2501N 08154W 9711 00364 0118 +259 +229 078026 027 033 000 00
180800 2501N 08152W 9711 00363 0117 +261 +218 075026 026 032 000 00
180830 2501N 08150W 9711 00364 0117 +261 +218 084026 026 032 000 00
180900 2501N 08148W 9712 00363 0116 +261 +211 083026 027 034 000 00
180930 2501N 08146W 9712 00362 0116 +259 +214 081029 030 033 000 00
181000 2501N 08145W 9712 00361 0115 +259 +215 082029 029 033 000 00
181030 2501N 08143W 9713 00361 0115 +257 +226 080028 029 033 000 00
181100 2500N 08141W 9713 00360 0115 +255 +234 080026 027 030 000 00
181130 2500N 08139W 9712 00362 0115 +256 +233 079025 026 030 000 00
181200 2500N 08137W 9712 00362 0115 +258 +230 081027 027 032 000 00
181230 2500N 08136W 9713 00359 0114 +259 +230 085026 027 033 000 00
181300 2500N 08134W 9713 00359 0115 +258 +234 085026 026 033 000 00
181330 2500N 08132W 9714 00359 0113 +259 +228 086026 026 033 000 00
181400 2500N 08130W 9713 00359 0114 +257 +233 087025 025 032 000 00

[SeGaBob]

But to be clear I don't necessarily agree with that run of the Euro.

[GCANE]

Pressure dropping pretty good at Sand Key
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[psyclone]

Euro is a strung out mess of nothing. gets pretty far west then slings back northeast

[caneman]

While no one is paying attention Euro is trending weaker and more stretched out.

Much weaker. All strung out and seems typical of the basin in recent years. So, ECMWF and GFS agree on track and strength now. Probably will not amount to much. You never know though.

I wouldn't bet on it. HWRF has proved itself better on strength once a system has formed and if they name this, they could just as well be right. They've done remarkably well thus far.

[SeGaBob]

Bringing this back up to the top of the page being recon is out there.