ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3821 Postby JaxGator » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:45 pm

One wunder bloger posted this and it makes perfect sense. Drago is Matthew and Rocky is all of us in the Caribbean and on the East Coast.

http://66.media.tumblr.com/67b39d560aa2 ... r1_500.gif
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3822 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:45 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:The blob east of Matthew has reared its ugly head again tonight. I've never seen such a feature persist like that ever before.


I read a met's take on it on another board. His thinking is it is hindering the direction or the actually causing the SLOW movement of any kind due to the heat release from it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3823 Postby bevgo » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:46 pm

I do understand and agree with you Wxman. It is all the focus on 1-2 frames that are crazy. LOL I see this every storm. Sometimes it's a loop, sometimes a wobble, sometimes stair stepping. Of course it IS sometimes the start of a turn. I just found it amusing today.

Oh well, praying for anyone that ends up in the path of Matthew. I am very happy that it is VERY unlikely it would go nuts and make it my way. Just enjoying watching. I have friends in NC. Not sure how close to the coast. I hope they fare well. I totally understand how those possibly in the path. It's hard to trust models as we have seen storms do the unpredicted (sp)

Ok. Back to lurking :Pick:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3824 Postby TJRE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:46 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:That "appendage" to the East of Matthew keeps expanding. Does anyone think it can expand and wrap all the way around the storm? I wish it would either do that or dissipate, its starting to get on my last nerve.


Image

like mother nature provides him an external fuel tank????
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3825 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Amen!! I too have had enough of my fill of "the north turn has started" This storm has been l.p.moving W-NW to NW all day long albeit.creeping slowly. Then, we have had these stalls in between.


That IS the north turn. A turn starts by the storm moving north of west. It wasn't expected to take a 90-deg right turn. The turn is gradual, and it started 24 hours ago. Looks like it's completing a little loop and is heading back northward. It's right on-track to pass near western Haiti or between Haiti & Jamaica tomorrow.



actually for 3 days it showed a right turn with no gradual.. so thats not correct. this gradual back and forth turn was not forecast. ..

it has been consistently behind every forecast model from every initialization.. lol

you cant call that "on track" when each and every time they have to adjust for being off..



just to quote myself.. lets look back.. does this look anything like what we have now in terms of timing.. its at 14.3N and 75W

.. we are presently at the 2am sunday position but west of there by 200 miles so essentially we are 24 hours behind ... lol

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3826 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:47 pm

There's been some back and forth regarding whether or not Matthew actually has crossed 75W since it now looks to be back on the east side of it. I took a look at the loop. After further review it appears the storm crossed the plain...touchdown!!! :Touchdown:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3827 Postby Ken711 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:47 pm

sunnyday wrote:Forgive me for asking, but does anyone have any clear idea if or when Matthew might make landfall in the US? I would appreciate some educated guesses....


No one can say for certain, but IMO the OBX still have the most risk of landfall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3828 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:47 pm

robbielyn wrote:look at matt now. I think upwelling beginning to affect it the whole storm looks squished.


upwelling causes a broad, shallow system

There is some shear affecting this still
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3829 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:49 pm

That giant eastern blob looks like a giant fungus infecting the hurricane. Thank goodness all that is not over any land at the moment.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3830 Postby otowntiger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Amen!! I too have had enough of my fill of "the north turn has started" This storm has been l.p.moving W-NW to NW all day long albeit.creeping slowly. Then, we have had these stalls in between.


That IS the north turn. A turn starts by the storm moving north of west. It wasn't expected to take a 90-deg right turn. The turn is gradual, and it started 24 hours ago. Looks like it's completing a little loop and is heading back northward. It's right on-track to pass near western Haiti or between Haiti & Jamaica tomorrow.



actually for 3 days it showed a right turn with no gradual.. so thats not correct. this gradual back and forth turn was not forecast. ..

it has been consistently behind every forecast model from every initialization.. lol

you cant call that "on track" when each and every time they have to adjust for being off..

I see your points Aric, but I'm pretty sure that these "adjustments" are not having a significant impact on the ultimate track of the storm. Granted, the wobbles at this point certainly have a little more impact on the Greater Antilles, but even there the general solution will likely be correct within 20 or 30 miles one way or the other. It's becoming very clear to me that the model concensus will be by and large correct. Matthew will very likely track well to the east of Florida. NC may get a much closer brush but the overal consistency of the model concensus (not individual models) has been remarkably consistent for days now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3831 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
That IS the north turn. A turn starts by the storm moving north of west. It wasn't expected to take a 90-deg right turn. The turn is gradual, and it started 24 hours ago. Looks like it's completing a little loop and is heading back northward. It's right on-track to pass near western Haiti or between Haiti & Jamaica tomorrow.



actually for 3 days it showed a right turn with no gradual.. so thats not correct. this gradual back and forth turn was not forecast. ..

it has been consistently behind every forecast model from every initialization.. lol

you cant call that "on track" when each and every time they have to adjust for being off..



just to quote myself.. lets look back.. does this look anything like what we have now in terms of timing.. its at 14.3N and 75W

.. we are presently at the 2am sunday position but west of there by 200 miles so essentially we are 24 hours behind ... lol

Image


I agree with your timing Aric but I'm not so sure about the 200 miles further west...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3832 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:49 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:There's been some back and forth regarding whether or not Matthew actually has crossed 75W since it now looks to be back on the east side of it. I took a look at the loop. After further review it appears the storm crossed the plain...touchdown!!! :Touchdown:


well according to recon.. a sw jog has occurred.. another loop.. and another blow to the models and forecasts.. still more waiting..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3833 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:51 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

actually for 3 days it showed a right turn with no gradual.. so thats not correct. this gradual back and forth turn was not forecast. ..

it has been consistently behind every forecast model from every initialization.. lol

you cant call that "on track" when each and every time they have to adjust for being off..



just to quote myself.. lets look back.. does this look anything like what we have now in terms of timing.. its at 14.3N and 75W

.. we are presently at the 2am sunday position but west of there by 200 miles so essentially we are 24 hours behind ... lol

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/AL142016_5W_004_0.GIF[/mg]


I agree with your timing Aric but I'm not so sure about the 200 miles further west...


rough estimate from the 2am sunday position to now.. is close to 200 miles.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3834 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:51 pm

Can't believe how much hoopla there is about this crossing a certain longitude by a certain latitude, etc.

This is crossing the longitude lines at a high angle of attack. Being off by a few miles means a big difference in its coordinates. But in terms of actual position and where it goes after Cuba...probably not much. The high agreement with the ensembles corroborates this.

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Last edited by wxmann_91 on Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3835 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:51 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

actually for 3 days it showed a right turn with no gradual.. so thats not correct. this gradual back and forth turn was not forecast. ..

it has been consistently behind every forecast model from every initialization.. lol

you cant call that "on track" when each and every time they have to adjust for being off..



just to quote myself.. lets look back.. does this look anything like what we have now in terms of timing.. its at 14.3N and 75W

.. we are presently at the 2am sunday position but west of there by 200 miles so essentially we are 24 hours behind ... lol



I agree with your timing Aric but I'm not so sure about the 200 miles further west...


More like 50 miles W and WELL within the 3 day cone.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3836 Postby robbielyn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:53 pm

Alyono wrote:
robbielyn wrote:look at matt now. I think upwelling beginning to affect it the whole storm looks squished.


upwelling causes a broad, shallow system

There is some shear affecting this still

ok thanx.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3837 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:53 pm

Evenstar wrote:
psyclone wrote:Stubborn Matthew still wants to rack up longitude...still think this stands a decent chance to shoot the uprights (between Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula)..another thing of note..once again arc clouds could be seen today firing out the western side of the storm. that would seem to imply dry air remains out that way and while it doesn't seem to have inhibited the storm that possibility remains. conversely the eastern side remains juicy and while the convective goiter has shrank from last night's enormous size it remains very much intact. it looks to be an issue not only for Haiti but at least western portions of the DR as well...it may actually expand eastward thanks to orographic enhancement. a very dangerous situation for Hispaniola even east of the threat of high sustained winds.


I'm fairly confident this is the first time in human history that the words "convective" and "goiter" have been used together in the same sentence.

I've often thought I should start keeping a journal of the most memorable and/or funniest moments on Storm2k. Convective goiter would go in the Storm2k terminology index under the heading: Weather Witticisms

I couldn't figure out what to call so it was time to coin a new phrase. I know it's impolite to stare...but you just can't help it (at least I can't)...it's a fascinating oddity.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3838 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:53 pm

sunnyday wrote:Forgive me for asking, but does anyone have any clear idea if or when Matthew might make landfall in the US? I would appreciate some educated guesses....


At this point, you may as well take darts and throw them on a board.

The simple answer to this is we just do not know. Too much uncertainty, plus we have a stalled out
tropical cyclone deep into the Caribbean. The only thing I can say to you is that all we can do is watch and wait and follow closely the latest details from NHC and to keep informed on the forums here also on Storm2K.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3839 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:57 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

just to quote myself.. lets look back.. does this look anything like what we have now in terms of timing.. its at 14.3N and 75W

.. we are presently at the 2am sunday position but west of there by 200 miles so essentially we are 24 hours behind ... lol



I agree with your timing Aric but I'm not so sure about the 200 miles further west...


More like 50 miles W and WELL within the 3 day cone.


so worked it out best I could find.. looks like 100 miles.. :P
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3840 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:57 pm

Aric so exactly what are you implying?
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