ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
This could be one for the books, no matter what happens....a paper to be delivered at a conference perhaps....?
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon
000
URNT15 KWBC 281844
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 10 20160828
183430 2453N 08031W 9727 00355 0124 +251 +228 127026 026 /// /// 03
183500 2452N 08033W 9724 00355 0124 +251 +228 127025 026 /// /// 03
183530 2451N 08034W 9726 00354 0123 +250 +228 127025 026 /// /// 03
183600 2450N 08036W 9728 00353 0123 +250 +228 129024 025 /// /// 03
183630 2449N 08038W 9730 00350 0123 +249 +225 128024 025 /// /// 03
183700 2448N 08039W 9727 00352 0123 +247 +228 126024 025 /// /// 03
183730 2446N 08041W 9727 00352 0122 +246 +223 126025 026 /// /// 03
183800 2445N 08042W 9729 00349 0122 +247 +218 127027 027 /// /// 03
183830 2444N 08044W 9725 00351 0120 +246 +220 129027 028 /// /// 03
183900 2443N 08046W 9730 00347 0120 +245 +225 126025 027 /// /// 03
183930 2442N 08047W 9727 00349 0119 +247 +215 126025 026 /// /// 03
184000 2441N 08049W 9731 00346 0118 +249 +212 126025 025 /// /// 03
184030 2439N 08051W 9729 00346 0118 +245 +226 128023 024 /// /// 03
184100 2438N 08052W 9731 00344 0117 +245 +224 123023 025 /// /// 03
184130 2437N 08054W 9729 00346 0118 +244 +226 123024 025 /// /// 03
184200 2436N 08055W 9757 00321 0116 +246 +227 119023 025 /// /// 03
184230 2435N 08057W 9771 00306 0116 +248 +230 118023 023 /// /// 03
184300 2434N 08059W 9766 00311 0117 +248 +230 119022 023 /// /// 03
184330 2432N 08101W 9769 00309 0117 +248 +229 122022 023 /// /// 03
184400 2432N 08103W 9763 00313 0114 +246 +234 118021 022 /// /// 03
URNT15 KWBC 281844
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 10 20160828
183430 2453N 08031W 9727 00355 0124 +251 +228 127026 026 /// /// 03
183500 2452N 08033W 9724 00355 0124 +251 +228 127025 026 /// /// 03
183530 2451N 08034W 9726 00354 0123 +250 +228 127025 026 /// /// 03
183600 2450N 08036W 9728 00353 0123 +250 +228 129024 025 /// /// 03
183630 2449N 08038W 9730 00350 0123 +249 +225 128024 025 /// /// 03
183700 2448N 08039W 9727 00352 0123 +247 +228 126024 025 /// /// 03
183730 2446N 08041W 9727 00352 0122 +246 +223 126025 026 /// /// 03
183800 2445N 08042W 9729 00349 0122 +247 +218 127027 027 /// /// 03
183830 2444N 08044W 9725 00351 0120 +246 +220 129027 028 /// /// 03
183900 2443N 08046W 9730 00347 0120 +245 +225 126025 027 /// /// 03
183930 2442N 08047W 9727 00349 0119 +247 +215 126025 026 /// /// 03
184000 2441N 08049W 9731 00346 0118 +249 +212 126025 025 /// /// 03
184030 2439N 08051W 9729 00346 0118 +245 +226 128023 024 /// /// 03
184100 2438N 08052W 9731 00344 0117 +245 +224 123023 025 /// /// 03
184130 2437N 08054W 9729 00346 0118 +244 +226 123024 025 /// /// 03
184200 2436N 08055W 9757 00321 0116 +246 +227 119023 025 /// /// 03
184230 2435N 08057W 9771 00306 0116 +248 +230 118023 023 /// /// 03
184300 2434N 08059W 9766 00311 0117 +248 +230 119022 023 /// /// 03
184330 2432N 08101W 9769 00309 0117 +248 +229 122022 023 /// /// 03
184400 2432N 08103W 9763 00313 0114 +246 +234 118021 022 /// /// 03
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Good cirrus right over the center of the vort.
Firing on more cylinders.
Firing on more cylinders.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion - 2 PM TWO up to 60%-80%
wxman57 wrote:I see a weak, poorly-defined surface circulation center with squalls displaced well to the east. Doesn't qualify for a TD yet. I'm still thinking it will finally be classified on Tuesday afternoon's flight. Don't get me wrong, I REALLY want my forecast of development to verify. I've been issuing advisories on this thing since last Saturday, calling for development as it neared south Florida. Been at the office all day yesterday and all day today working it (and Eight). Don't want to miss a weekend off for nothing.But I just don't see any development for at least another 24hrs, and probably not until Tuesday.
Any updated thoughts on landfall/intensity?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Since Recon is flying at about 1000 ft, is that why there is no Surface wind speed?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:Since Recon is flying at about 1000 ft, is that why there is no Surface wind speed?
They turned it off is my thinking, initially its estimated surface winds by the SFMR were way higher than surface reports.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
300mb winds relaxing a bit to the west of the CoC.
About 5 to 10 knots now.
About 5 to 10 knots now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I hope Recon doesn't have com issues again right before the first through the center. It happens about half the time. I am not sure why...
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon
000
URNT15 KWBC 281854
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20160828
184430 2431N 08105W 9769 00308 0114 +247 +234 114020 021 /// /// 03
184500 2430N 08107W 9769 00307 0114 +247 +233 119020 021 /// /// 03
184530 2429N 08108W 9769 00306 0113 +247 +229 119021 022 /// /// 03
184600 2428N 08110W 9769 00306 0113 +247 +230 122022 022 026 000 00
184630 2427N 08111W 9770 00305 0112 +247 +231 120022 023 027 000 00
184700 2425N 08113W 9772 00302 0110 +246 +234 123023 024 028 000 00
184730 2424N 08115W 9808 00266 0109 +250 +234 128025 025 030 000 03
184800 2423N 08116W 9837 00239 0105 +254 +238 130022 024 028 000 03
184830 2422N 08118W 9839 00235 0104 +255 +236 120017 018 027 000 00
184900 2421N 08120W 9839 00236 0105 +255 +236 116016 017 026 000 00
184930 2419N 08121W 9818 00259 0108 +254 +236 116016 017 026 000 00
185000 2418N 08123W 9822 00258 0108 +254 +232 113018 018 027 000 00
185030 2417N 08124W 9809 00266 0107 +255 +233 110018 019 027 000 00
185100 2416N 08126W 9790 00281 0107 +253 +235 110018 019 027 000 00
185130 2415N 08128W 9770 00301 0107 +252 +234 109018 019 029 000 00
185200 2414N 08129W 9767 00303 0107 +252 +237 103017 018 027 000 00
185230 2412N 08131W 9769 00301 0106 +252 +240 102015 015 026 000 00
185300 2411N 08133W 9770 00299 0105 +252 +238 093017 018 025 000 00
185330 2410N 08134W 9769 00300 0105 +254 +233 090020 020 027 000 00
185400 2409N 08136W 9769 00300 0105 +252 +236 089020 021 027 000 00
URNT15 KWBC 281854
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20160828
184430 2431N 08105W 9769 00308 0114 +247 +234 114020 021 /// /// 03
184500 2430N 08107W 9769 00307 0114 +247 +233 119020 021 /// /// 03
184530 2429N 08108W 9769 00306 0113 +247 +229 119021 022 /// /// 03
184600 2428N 08110W 9769 00306 0113 +247 +230 122022 022 026 000 00
184630 2427N 08111W 9770 00305 0112 +247 +231 120022 023 027 000 00
184700 2425N 08113W 9772 00302 0110 +246 +234 123023 024 028 000 00
184730 2424N 08115W 9808 00266 0109 +250 +234 128025 025 030 000 03
184800 2423N 08116W 9837 00239 0105 +254 +238 130022 024 028 000 03
184830 2422N 08118W 9839 00235 0104 +255 +236 120017 018 027 000 00
184900 2421N 08120W 9839 00236 0105 +255 +236 116016 017 026 000 00
184930 2419N 08121W 9818 00259 0108 +254 +236 116016 017 026 000 00
185000 2418N 08123W 9822 00258 0108 +254 +232 113018 018 027 000 00
185030 2417N 08124W 9809 00266 0107 +255 +233 110018 019 027 000 00
185100 2416N 08126W 9790 00281 0107 +253 +235 110018 019 027 000 00
185130 2415N 08128W 9770 00301 0107 +252 +234 109018 019 029 000 00
185200 2414N 08129W 9767 00303 0107 +252 +237 103017 018 027 000 00
185230 2412N 08131W 9769 00301 0106 +252 +240 102015 015 026 000 00
185300 2411N 08133W 9770 00299 0105 +252 +238 093017 018 025 000 00
185330 2410N 08134W 9769 00300 0105 +254 +233 090020 020 027 000 00
185400 2409N 08136W 9769 00300 0105 +252 +236 089020 021 027 000 00
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
next set we will know.. winds already looking pretty normal for LLC. also center appears to be still close to the convection.
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tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon Discussion
Reporting surface winds again.
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Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:next set we will know.. winds already looking pretty normal for LLC. also center appears to be still close to the convection.
Do you know if they found a west wind yet?
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
NDG wrote:I'm estimating the center to be near 23.8N & 81.8W
close to what I had posted a couple pages back.. looks about right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
either the LLC is farther south, or it dissipated based upon recon
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon
000
URNT15 KWBC 281904
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 12 20160828
185430 2408N 08138W 9768 00300 0105 +253 +237 086020 021 027 000 00
185500 2407N 08140W 9770 00298 0103 +256 +231 083021 022 029 000 00
185530 2405N 08141W 9769 00299 0104 +258 +234 076022 023 028 000 00
185600 2404N 08143W 9770 00297 0103 +260 +232 072021 022 027 000 00
185630 2403N 08145W 9768 00301 0104 +260 +237 070020 020 027 000 00
185700 2402N 08147W 9769 00299 0103 +260 +236 068021 023 028 000 00
185730 2401N 08149W 9769 00300 0103 +264 +230 069020 020 027 000 00
185800 2359N 08150W 9769 00298 0102 +268 +224 065020 022 028 000 00
185830 2358N 08152W 9769 00300 0103 +267 +224 063019 020 028 000 00
185900 2357N 08154W 9769 00299 0103 +264 +233 060018 019 028 000 00
185930 2356N 08156W 9769 00300 0103 +262 +247 059016 017 028 001 00
190000 2354N 08158W 9768 00300 0103 +264 +241 045011 012 025 000 00
190030 2353N 08159W 9714 00345 0101 +260 +244 036013 014 027 000 00
190100 2352N 08201W 9715 00344 0100 +261 +243 031013 014 024 000 00
190130 2350N 08202W 9722 00341 0101 +263 +236 036014 015 023 000 00
190200 2349N 08204W 9716 00343 0101 +260 +238 027013 013 023 000 00
190230 2348N 08206W 9720 00341 0102 +260 +240 026011 012 022 000 00
190300 2346N 08207W 9723 00340 0101 +265 +230 029012 013 022 000 00
190330 2345N 08209W 9723 00339 0101 +266 +226 021012 013 023 000 00
190400 2344N 08211W 9723 00340 0102 +262 +232 021014 014 023 000 00
URNT15 KWBC 281904
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 12 20160828
185430 2408N 08138W 9768 00300 0105 +253 +237 086020 021 027 000 00
185500 2407N 08140W 9770 00298 0103 +256 +231 083021 022 029 000 00
185530 2405N 08141W 9769 00299 0104 +258 +234 076022 023 028 000 00
185600 2404N 08143W 9770 00297 0103 +260 +232 072021 022 027 000 00
185630 2403N 08145W 9768 00301 0104 +260 +237 070020 020 027 000 00
185700 2402N 08147W 9769 00299 0103 +260 +236 068021 023 028 000 00
185730 2401N 08149W 9769 00300 0103 +264 +230 069020 020 027 000 00
185800 2359N 08150W 9769 00298 0102 +268 +224 065020 022 028 000 00
185830 2358N 08152W 9769 00300 0103 +267 +224 063019 020 028 000 00
185900 2357N 08154W 9769 00299 0103 +264 +233 060018 019 028 000 00
185930 2356N 08156W 9769 00300 0103 +262 +247 059016 017 028 001 00
190000 2354N 08158W 9768 00300 0103 +264 +241 045011 012 025 000 00
190030 2353N 08159W 9714 00345 0101 +260 +244 036013 014 027 000 00
190100 2352N 08201W 9715 00344 0100 +261 +243 031013 014 024 000 00
190130 2350N 08202W 9722 00341 0101 +263 +236 036014 015 023 000 00
190200 2349N 08204W 9716 00343 0101 +260 +238 027013 013 023 000 00
190230 2348N 08206W 9720 00341 0102 +260 +240 026011 012 022 000 00
190300 2346N 08207W 9723 00340 0101 +265 +230 029012 013 022 000 00
190330 2345N 08209W 9723 00339 0101 +266 +226 021012 013 023 000 00
190400 2344N 08211W 9723 00340 0102 +262 +232 021014 014 023 000 00
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
they missed the center to the west of it. grr.. wind field looks good though center appears to be still embedded in the convection somewhat. have to wait to see where they turn now. hopefully south to check for west wind.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:NDG wrote:I'm estimating the center to be near 23.8N & 81.8W
close to what I had posted a couple pages back.. looks about right.
looks like yall were about right via recon
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Frank P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Here is my guess to where the center is.... and moving due west per the rapid scan sat loop
Last edited by Frank P on Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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