ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

they missed the center to the west of it. grr.. wind field looks good though center appears to be still embedded in the convection somewhat. have to wait to see where they turn now. hopefully south to check for west wind.

Yeap, they thought the center was further west and is not.

[HurriGuy]

In my opinion, no doubt the center has slipped south under the convection.

As stated earlier this morning, never really thought the naked swirl was the true llc. Just an eddy.

[HurriGuy]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=80&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=700
JUST LOOK AT RAPID VISIBLE....YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE THE CENTER RETROGRADING BACK UNDER CONVECTION

[psyclone]

I will be very shocked if this is upgraded this afternoon. It just appears to lack the organization needed...but it is trying...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281914
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 13 20160828
190430 2343N 08212W 9723 00341 0103 +259 +239 018014 014 023 000 00
190500 2341N 08214W 9721 00342 0102 +263 +231 011012 013 021 000 00
190530 2340N 08215W 9723 00342 0102 +262 +236 007013 013 020 000 00
190600 2339N 08217W 9723 00342 0103 +262 +242 006012 012 019 000 00
190630 2338N 08219W 9723 00341 0103 +263 +238 009012 013 018 000 00
190700 2336N 08220W 9724 00340 0102 +264 +235 007014 014 020 001 00
190730 2335N 08222W 9787 00284 0103 +267 +238 358013 014 019 000 00
190800 2334N 08224W 9806 00267 0105 +270 +242 355014 014 020 000 00
190830 2333N 08225W 9804 00269 0104 +269 +244 357014 014 021 000 00
190900 2332N 08227W 9789 00282 0102 +268 +243 348013 014 020 001 00
190930 2331N 08229W 9783 00286 0102 +269 +240 352013 014 018 001 00
191000 2330N 08230W 9780 00287 0101 +269 +237 355014 014 017 000 00
191030 2329N 08232W 9779 00288 0102 +269 +238 359014 014 018 000 00
191100 2328N 08234W 9760 00311 0105 +268 +233 358015 015 019 000 00
191130 2326N 08235W 9760 00312 0106 +270 +227 356015 015 017 000 00
191200 2326N 08237W 9762 00306 0105 +267 +234 002014 015 017 000 00
191230 2326N 08239W 9759 00313 0108 +268 +229 002013 013 018 000 00
191300 2326N 08241W 9759 00312 0107 +265 +235 005014 015 019 000 00
191330 2326N 08243W 9760 00313 0108 +265 +238 003014 014 020 000 00
191400 2326N 08245W 9760 00311 0108 +268 +230 002013 014 021 000 00

[Frank P]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=80&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=700
JUST LOOK AT RAPID VISIBLE....YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE THE CENTER RETROGRADING BACK UNDER CONVECTION

And I think that is pretty close to where I put the red L on my image up above, could be a tad se of that however

[NDG]

The only thing that I can think that they missed the center was in purpose because center is right by the deep convection being that they are flying so low I don't blame them.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah its quite clear where the center is...

[northjaxpro]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=80&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=700
JUST LOOK AT RAPID VISIBLE....YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE THE CENTER RETROGRADING BACK UNDER CONVECTION

I agree with you. You do not have to shout at us though making your point. But I agree .

[johngaltfla]

My point is that should it get named now, in my mind it's been the most accurate thus far. Im not trusting anything the euro or gfs is saying at this point. At this,point it seems as likely to be strong as it is weak. There is nothing to hang our hats on.

FWIW, if you ask the pros the HWRF is horrid until the actual LLC is closed and the storm has formed. With an open wave, as this is, it is not capable of making the correct calculations for an outcome, thus is usually noted but discarded in favor of the GFS and Euro.

[HurriGuy]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=80&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=700
JUST LOOK AT RAPID VISIBLE....YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE THE CENTER RETROGRADING BACK UNDER CONVECTION

I agree with you. You do not have to shout at us though making your point. But I agree .

I just typed in CAPS so people would see. I never associated CAPS as shouting. lol

[deltadog03]

IMO, I think its pretty clear they missed the center, and I do see many low level cloud elements dancing around that western side of the blow up. I think they will find a closed center. Shear looks like its FINALLY starting to relax a bit.

[Alyono]

There is no closed low today. It dissipated.

This may be why the models backed off on developing this at 12Z.

We cannot look at pretty colors on satellite imagery. Look at the structure. It's not as defined as it was last night

[SeGaBob]

2 pro mets saying 2 different things...

[NDG]

I might be even too far west with my estimate, it now appears to be near 23.7N & 81.5W, north of Varadero.

[rockyman]

It's looking really good to me, right now. The low level vorticity is quite pronounced, and about to be covered by convection. I think there's a chance it'll be named this afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO, I think its pretty clear they missed the center, and I do see many low level cloud elements dancing around that western side of the blow up. I think they will find a closed center. Shear looks like its FINALLY starting to relax a bit.

agreed. the upper low is slowing and beginning to lift back to the nw .. next 24 hours should get better conducive.

[pgoss11]

2 pro mets saying 2 different things...

Seriously..how can they both see two different things?

[NDG]

There is no closed low today. It dissipated.

This may be why the models backed off on developing this at 12Z.

We cannot look at pretty colors on satellite imagery. Look at the structure. It's not as defined as it was last night

Why would you say there's no closed low when there are west & NW winds reported in Havana all day long?

[deltadog03]

In all fairness....he could easily be right...I mean, this has spit out so many dang eddies..it could just be one. IT does look a bit different today tho.