ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

I can see some low level cloud elements flying around under that western portion of the storms. It will be interesting to see if recon can close it off...they missed the center on the first pass. *it appears* I am going to have a new map out later, but lets say I am not impressed anymore. I admit defeat and that I thought this would/could do something better. I have a TD/TS landfall around big bend of FL.

and y'all know how much I love the euro...but, this isn't just based of todays run, its a culmination of the last few days. btw, side note...I think they broke the EURO this summer...just saying.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281924
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20160828
191430 2325N 08247W 9760 00311 0106 +271 +217 356013 014 021 000 00
191500 2325N 08249W 9758 00310 0106 +269 +213 346014 016 020 000 00
191530 2325N 08251W 9759 00310 0105 +270 +221 346013 014 021 000 00
191600 2325N 08253W 9759 00310 0105 +270 +218 354014 014 020 000 00
191630 2325N 08255W 9760 00312 0107 +268 +230 354015 015 019 000 00
191700 2325N 08257W 9754 00316 0107 +266 +238 355014 014 018 000 03
191730 2327N 08257W 9759 00310 0105 +268 +237 355015 015 016 000 03
191800 2328N 08256W 9764 00306 0105 +267 +239 357016 016 019 000 03
191830 2327N 08253W 9759 00310 0104 +266 +242 358016 016 019 000 00
191900 2327N 08251W 9759 00308 0104 +265 +240 356015 016 019 000 00
191930 2328N 08249W 9759 00310 0105 +268 +231 359015 016 017 000 00
192000 2328N 08247W 9759 00309 0104 +268 +224 351010 012 016 000 00
192030 2328N 08245W 9759 00311 0106 +266 +235 353013 015 016 000 00
192100 2328N 08243W 9760 00309 0104 +266 +240 001015 015 018 000 00
192130 2328N 08241W 9759 00308 0103 +267 +238 359015 016 018 000 00
192200 2328N 08239W 9759 00309 0104 +265 +239 353014 014 019 000 00
192230 2329N 08237W 9759 00308 0102 +267 +238 354014 015 018 000 00
192300 2329N 08235W 9759 00307 0101 +267 +241 352015 016 017 000 00
192330 2329N 08233W 9760 00306 0101 +268 +238 351014 015 018 000 00
192400 2329N 08231W 9759 00307 0100 +267 +241 351015 015 017 000 00

[txwatcher91]

To me it looks like the LLC or possible developing one is slipping under that convection which should help tighten the circulation hope as long as it doesn't run into Cuba. I think it does have a weak LLC though. Hopefully recon can provide a definitive answer!

[Sanibel]

In my opinion the wise would wait to see if it picked up any energy after transiting the Gulf Stream south of the Keys... Should show up in 12-24 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=80&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=700

If you have a moment, watch this clip at mid-speed. It's a beautiful shot of 99L, Florida, the EGOM and Caribbean, and all the other complex weather factors in play. The shot is at an angle that lets you view the different cloud layers. Study the details. As a fan of weather, it's a lovely visual.

[NDG]

Recon now reporting NNW winds.

[johngaltfla]

I can see some low level cloud elements flying around under that western portion of the storms. It will be interesting to see if recon can close it off...they missed the center on the first pass. *it appears* I am going to have a new map out later, but lets say I am not impressed anymore. I admit defeat and that I thought this would/could do something better. I have a TD/TS landfall around big bend of FL.

and y'all know how much I love the euro...but, this isn't just based of todays run, its a culmination of the last few days. btw, side note...I think they broke the EURO this summer...just saying.

On your side note, that would be bad.

I would prefer a weak TD but that's just as dangerous for those of us to the east and southeast of the center because we've had enough rain.

[psyclone]

2 pro mets saying 2 different things...

Seriously..how can they both see two different things?

The blue taggers are people too. Are they all supposed to think alike?

[NDG]

Now heading due east where I have my estimated center to be.

[HurriGuy]

RECON sure back-tracked fast. Here comes our answer

[Frank P]

I'm pretty sure that this is the center with the convection building all around it...

[hurricanefloyd5]

What are the surface winds right now!

[SeGaBob]

2 pro mets saying 2 different things...

Seriously..how can they both see two different things?

The blue taggers are people too. Are they all supposed to think alike?

That is not the way I meant it.

[pgoss11]

2 pro mets saying 2 different things...

Seriously..how can they both see two different things?

The blue taggers are people too. Are they all supposed to think alike?

They're certainly allowed to think differently but with their scientific background it would seem they would be closer on the same page than worlds apart on what they're seeing.

[Blinhart]

Does Recon have permission to go over Cuban water?

[johngaltfla]

Does Recon have permission to go over Cuban water?

Yes. NHC and Cuba have almost always had pretty good relations. There are exceptions but it is in their interests also to get flight data which we share.

[Alyono]

the surface pressure field is flat. We should see a distinct minimum

[Tireman4]

Just a reminder. The pro mets that come on here are doing it because they want to, not have to. I am not a moderator, but I respect their opinion. They have the right see things different ways.

[chaser1]

99L has me concerned. It's been an incredibly stubborn and resilient wave.... and I don't like those ingredients in a storm about to enter a more favorable environment.

Either way, this is the best it's looked all week.

Yep, There's something so oddly persistant about the vorticity associated with this wave and I keep getting "throwback" memories going back to the manner in which a persistantly sheared Andrew suddently rapidly roared to its Cat 5 life. Don't get me wrong here, we're not talking about S. Florida and nor am I suggesting that 99L will develop into a Cat 5 either. I just hate the fact that i've practically lost all faith on model reliability which leaves little left to go on beyond whatever obs, radar, satellite, and recon that we see at the moment and is in front of our eyes. Just hope that this doesnt suddenly spin up into a strong Cat 2 or 3 and end up with a slow mover to lay waste in an area where storm surge would be really bad.

[HurriGuy]

Recon supports that dry air is still a problem