ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

The same guy I mentioned, his name was Michael but I didn't catch his last name, he also mentioned it would likely strengthen again in the Bahamas and where it goes from there depends 100% on where the blocking starts to set up mid week. Surprisingly, while he brushed off the BAM models he did give props to the Ukmet model for being a decent model and openly said he doesn't like how close to the states it's showing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Stewart's discussion always seems like it's a perfectly relevant storm2k post.

He's watching the thread

[Alyono]

based upon recon, this is now a 110 kt category 3. I think the winds decreased even though the pressure has remained the same because the easterly jet that was producing the very high winds last week has been blocked by the blob to the east

[dexterlabio]

The heart blob is like Matthew's way of saying that he has no ill intentions...just hanging around to give the Atlantic its first Cat5 in 9 years..

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's almost as if Matthew is scared to hit land. He has just been sitting there doing absolutely nothing for almost over a day now.

[Aric Dunn]

ill just stick with the NAM its doing just as good as the rest lol..

[SFLcane]

Very interesting stacy..

[WHYB630]

The heart blob is like Matthew's way of saying that he has no ill intentions...just hanging around to give the Atlantic its first Cat5 in 9 years..

"I. Come. In. Peace."

[AutoPenalti]

Very interesting stacy..

What is a Stacy?

[floridasun78]

Very interesting stacy..

What is a Stacy?

Forecaster Stewart

[SFLcane]

MWatkins I see you....

[Panfan1995]

New poster here, been reading for some time. Question: what are the chances of the high actually building and digging further south causing matthew to move inland. I see the GFS keeps moving east yet knowing the high is actually getting longer has no effect. The Euro is trending more west with several runs taking it into Carolinas. Any thoughts

[SunnyThoughts]

Matthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear
environment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near
zero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very
favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery,
should allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current
intensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with
Jamaica or Haiti.

This is very concerning..zero value wind shear.

[Ken711]

New poster here, been reading for some time. Question: what are the chances of the high actually building and digging further south causing matthew to move inland. I see the GFS keeps moving east yet knowing the high is actually getting longer has no effect. The Euro is trending more west with several runs taking it into Carolinas. Any thoughts

I'm not sure that is correct on the Euro.

[drewschmaltz]

New poster here, been reading for some time. Question: what are the chances of the high actually building and digging further south causing matthew to move inland. I see the GFS keeps moving east yet knowing the high is actually getting longer has no effect. The Euro is trending more west with several runs taking it into Carolinas. Any thoughts

You've been reading so you know that no one knows anything beyond that it's possible. And, you know the last NHC cone didn't shift much but the discussion made mention of the possibility.

I'm a novice and a half but I watch levy's videos and look at the maps. From those 2 things alone id say the chances are 13.45% that the ridge digs enough for a Florida landfall and 27.33% for a SE US hit.

[Panfan1995]

27.33% is quite large for SEC hit. My gut says this ridge is building in and will build in stronger that the models just are not seeing, however the models have not been all that great. That trough is moving east and will allow the ridge to reach potential quicker along with the fact that matty ice is moving so slow. This storm is doing some of its own thinking and the long term is very uncertain

[drewschmaltz]

27.33% is quite large for SEC hit. My gut says this ridge is building in and will build in stronger that the models just are not seeing, however the models have not been all that great. That trough is moving east and will allow the ridge to reach potential quicker along with the fact that matty ice is moving so slow. This storm is doing some of its own thinking and the long term is very uncertain

I was joking about the exact percentages but I feel like 1 in 4 and 1 in 10ish is reasonable. There is a bias for believing these storms are going to go over your house. Does anyone know why that is? I fight that feeling every day. Why doesn't anyone in Florida believe the ridge is going to be weaker than forecast? Why doesn't anyone think that any feature that ensures OTS will be stronger than forecast? We humans and our gut feelings are weird........

[toad strangler]

Looks like a NE jog now ...

[SouthernBreeze]

GFS is running again. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx says "So far for #Matthew GFS verifying best of the models...." Sorry, I don't know Allan or his weather tracking record though!

[FLLurker32]

27.33% is quite large for SEC hit. My gut says this ridge is building in and will build in stronger that the models just are not seeing, however the models have not been all that great. That trough is moving east and will allow the ridge to reach potential quicker along with the fact that matty ice is moving so slow. This storm is doing some of its own thinking and the long term is very uncertain

I was joking about the exact percentages but I feel like 1 in 4 and 1 in 10ish is reasonable. There is a bias for believing these storms are going to go over your house. Does anyone know why that is? I fight that feeling every day. Why doesn't anyone in Florida believe the ridge is going to be weaker than forecast? Why doesn't anyone think that any feature that ensures OTS will be stronger than forecast? We humans and our gut feelings are weird........

I think it's very similar to what makes roller coasters popular. We all know it's stupid to WANT to be thrown around in something man made, and therefore fallable, at a height that could kill you. It doesn't make a good portion of the population want to do it any less. We all know we'd rather not have a hurricane destroy any area, but there's still that thrill of being in one.