ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Your center of circulation, I was pretty close to my earlier estimate. Now recon gaining altitude before going through the thunderstorms.

193800 2344N 08141W 9768 00287 0087 +259 +245 259005 006 020 000 00
193830 2345N 08140W 9769 00285 0088 +260 +243 248006 006 020 000 00
193900 2347N 08139W 9768 00287 0089 +258 +241 206004 004 021 000 00

[TropicalSailor]

looks like lowest pressure miss piggy found just north of cuba was 1009mb. The center or what could be a center may be closer to coast, but we probably don't have permission to be that close to their air space? OR we didn't ask to enter Cuban airspace?

It appears to me they were right at the center?

[rockyman]

[SeGaBob]

Your center of circulation, I was pretty close to my earlier estimate. Now recon gaining altitude before going through the thunderstorms.

193800 2344N 08141W 9768 00287 0087 +259 +245 259005 006 020 000 00
193830 2345N 08140W 9769 00285 0088 +260 +243 248006 006 020 000 00
193900 2347N 08139W 9768 00287 0089 +258 +241 206004 004 021 000 00

Is this the part where they find the max winds?

[LSU2001]

Frank or Chaser1,
Could one of you post the link to the donation page? I cant seem to find it in announcements.
thanks,
tim

[NDG]

Very well defined circulation, at least a TD.

[Aric Dunn]

according recon .. the center is about right here. with convection building again around it.

[deltadog03]

IMO, not any official stuff, I would upgrade to a TD, why? We know it's got a LLC that's producing sustained convection, and with an increasingly favorable environment I would do if.

[Rail Dawg]

This video is a view of Invest 99L from 38,000 ft about 120 miles west of Invest 99L.

It was taken at 1pm EST today the 28th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bdn5ckaegsafxrd/IMG_0121.MOV

I'm learning how to post videos here.

You could see the storms being sheared from it looks like the south.

Any thoughts or opinions appreciated!

Chuck

[stormhunter7]

nah, they hit a surface center it appears at 1kft. So we will have much better data now, and we do have west winds. So technically it meets TD classification, but lacks true stroms. NHC may hold for convection to blow up over coc, i think.

[bob rulz]

Convection fired up very rapidly around that LLC. I'm not sure there's anything now that would prevent this from being designated, right?

Just as I warned a few days ago....too many people writing this off before entering that giant bathtub called the Gulf of Mexico.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281954
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 17 20160828
194430 2402N 08136W 9617 00425 0093 +243 +227 103013 015 023 000 00
194500 2402N 08139W 9765 00292 0092 +251 +235 097016 016 026 000 00
194530 2402N 08141W 9770 00287 0092 +255 +234 089016 016 024 000 00
194600 2402N 08143W 9769 00289 0093 +254 +238 081014 015 024 000 00
194630 2402N 08145W 9769 00288 0092 +255 +240 079015 016 024 000 00
194700 2402N 08147W 9770 00288 0091 +259 +228 070017 018 025 000 00
194730 2402N 08149W 9769 00289 0092 +257 +234 066017 018 026 000 00
194800 2402N 08152W 9769 00290 0092 +257 +240 064016 017 026 000 00
194830 2402N 08154W 9770 00287 0092 +258 +239 069015 016 026 000 00
194900 2402N 08156W 9770 00288 0092 +258 +240 066016 016 026 000 00
194930 2402N 08158W 9773 00285 0093 +261 +238 067016 016 025 000 00
195000 2402N 08200W 9770 00290 0092 +262 +241 063016 016 023 000 00
195030 2402N 08202W 9771 00287 0091 +263 +239 060015 016 024 000 00
195100 2402N 08204W 9770 00290 0093 +263 +241 058016 017 025 000 00
195130 2402N 08207W 9771 00288 0092 +264 +242 057015 015 025 000 00
195200 2401N 08209W 9770 00289 0093 +264 +243 051015 015 025 000 03
195230 2359N 08209W 9770 00288 0091 +264 +244 042013 013 014 000 03
195300 2358N 08208W 9771 00286 0090 +265 +238 036014 015 020 000 00
195330 2356N 08207W 9770 00286 0090 +266 +236 040015 015 021 000 00
195400 2355N 08206W 9770 00287 0090 +264 +238 050014 015 021 000 00

[Frank P]

Frank or Chaser1,
Could one of you post the link to the donation page? I cant seem to find it in announcements.
thanks,
tim

Go to the board Index LSU, you will see it there.. under Rules and Announcements

[Portastorm]

This video is a view of Invest 99L from 38,000 ft about 120 miles west of Key West, FL.

It was taken at 1pm EST today the 28th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bdn5ckaegsafxrd/IMG_0121.MOV

I'm learning how to post videos here.

You could see the storms being sheared from it looks like the south.

Any thoughts or opinions appreciated!

Chuck

How far have we come at Storm2k? Hell, we have our OWN recon pilots now!

Thanks Rail Dawg for your comments earlier today and for sharing this video. Happy landings in Cancun!

[bob rulz]

What's the strongest a storm that formed IN the Gulf has become?

[stormhunter7]

This video is a view of Invest 99L from 38,000 ft about 120 miles west of Key West, FL.

It was taken at 1pm EST today the 28th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bdn5ckaegsafxrd/IMG_0121.MOV

I'm learning how to post videos here.

You could see the storms being sheared from it looks like the south.

Any thoughts or opinions appreciated!

Chuck

If you make a youtube channel, then you can post directly from your smartphone. Just make sure you using WIFI, as it will eat you cell data up fast. lol Once posted to your youtube, just copy url.

Awesome job shooting horizontal too!

[pgoss11]

Just a reminder. The pro mets that come on here are doing it because they want to, not have to. I am not a moderator, but I respect their opinion. They have the right see things different ways.

I agree the pro mets are awesome! I appreciate all their hard work and their opinions. I have learned so much from them over the last several years. Kudos to all of them!

[northjaxpro]

Amazing that after 190 pages over 3700 posts on 99L , it appears FINALLY, we may FINALLY see this system classified as a Tropical Depression after nearly following this for 11 days.

EDIT: make that over 3800 posts to this juncture.

[TropicalSailor]

nah, they hit a surface center it appears at 1kft. So we will have much better data now, and we do have west winds. So technically it meets TD classification, but lacks true stroms. NHC may hold for convection to blow up over coc, i think.

I'm sorry but I don't understanding holding this off a TD when we are this closed to land. That's a big risk IMO

[psyclone]

Convection fired up very rapidly around that LLC. I'm not sure there's anything now that would prevent this from being designated, right?

Just as I warned a few days ago....too many people writing this off before entering that giant bathtub called the Gulf of Mexico.

If they don't do it my guess would be persistence and organization. An equally if not more compelling case could have been made for an upgrade back near Guadeloupe. at any rate I'll sit and wait for a verdict...