ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Trough washes out, high over the NE. I'd expect a NW motion between 96 and 144.

Agreed...here comes the trap!!!

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like the Euro might want to develop that central Atlantic system. Breaks down the ridge more?

Now mentioned by NHC

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central
tropical Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. Although recent
satellite wind data indicate that the system is producing winds just
below tropical storm force, any additional development is expected
to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds while the low
moves northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[meriland23]

this run is almost a whole degree east of 12z

[meriland23]

The next frame should be a significant jog west if it is still following 12z

[PTrackerLA]

Ridge appears to be building in similar to 12z at 96hrs and the trough over the Rockies seems roughly the same I would expect to see a NW bend next frame but who knows?

[Kingarabian]

Well east of the 12z run now.

[USTropics]

The 00z UKMET had a slight turn to the east after passing Jamaica, and the CMC also develops this new system behind Matthew. The difference it could potentially cause in regards to the track of Matthew has big implications on the model output. Just compare the GFS and ECMWF starting at 72 hours.

96 hours on the 00z GFS there is no system to the NE:


It's very apparent in the 00z ECMWF run at the same time frame:

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks more NNW at 120 hours. That feature South of Bermuda is a huge player.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Lol...euro has the high trapping two other surface features- C. Atlantic wave, and a piece of energy from a trough.

[wxmann_91]

Quite a bit further east this run, may be feeling the effects of whatever system is to its east. Enough remnants of our favorite northeastern U.S. closed low might remain for a recurve later on, because this goes so far east early on.

[TimeZone]

Huge shift E by the Euro.

[meriland23]

I am wondering who is the more reliable of the two thus far, GFS or Euro in terms of this storm...

[AutoPenalti]

Hmm, now Euro says east.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, seems like a big shift East to me, we'll see if the GFS also shifts East in the morning

[Joe Snow]

I am wondering who is the more reliable of the two thus far, GFS or Euro in terms of this storm...

That's the million dollar question...............

[meriland23]

Euro is still on its trend from earlier today, it just recurves into that shape sooner than previously anticipated.

[wxmann_91]

I am wondering who is the more reliable of the two thus far, GFS or Euro in terms of this storm...

If both the GFS and the Euro are locked onto separate solutions, the Euro one tends to work out. (Think Sandy, Joaquin, even the SW turn by Matthew.)

Before anyone mentions, Hermine and Karl were not locked on by ECMWF.

P.S. on its way out at hr 144.

[AutoPenalti]

Something still doesn't feel right about that Euro setup.

[1900hurricane]

I can see all sorts of goofy phase solutions playing out beyond tau 144.

[SouthFLTropics]

I am wondering who is the more reliable of the two thus far, GFS or Euro in terms of this storm...

I can tell you which one has been more consistent run to run and that's the GFS. It's had minor shifts left and right but no major flip flopping like the Euro has been doing. It seems to spit out a different 5 to 10 day track every run.