ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

Let's focus MORE on the actual disturbance 99L and less on what the "blue tag" who agrees with your viewpoint is writing.

As tireman said, the pro meteorologists here are here on their own volition. Meteorologists do not always agree. This isn't news nor is it a reason to call anyone's credentials into question.

Now back to our regular programming ...

I have seen this "blue tag" for pro mets mentioned. Where the heck is it? Sorry for the off topic.

In the previous version of this forum, only pro meteorologists had their user name in blue. Admins were orange. Moderators in green. Now the pro mets have bold and deep blue for their username color in this updated forum software.

Thank you. Looks like 99L is going to get fired up, I just hope it doesn't go crazy on us.

[galaxy401]

What's the strongest a storm that formed IN the Gulf has become?

Hurricane Anita in 1977 became a five before hitting Mexico.

[LSU2001]

What's the strongest a storm that formed IN the Gulf has become?

Hurricane Anita in 1977 became a five before hitting Mexico.

bob rulz,
The gulf can spin up some monsters if the upper air conditions are good. There is no shortage of hot water to fuel the storms. However, the other variables are what normally limits development not the heat content or size of the gulf.
Tim

[artist]

Is it not close to the Keys and Cuba? Wouldn't that be enough for them to call it?

[ronjon]

So upgrade with the 5 pm package?

[Aric Dunn]

What's the strongest a storm that formed IN the Gulf has become?

Hurricane Anita in 1977 became a five before hitting Mexico.

bob rulz,
The gulf can spin up some monsters if the upper air conditions are good. There is no shortage of hot water to fuel the storms. However, the other variables are what normally limits development not the heat content or size of the gulf.
Tim

however this will be passing over the gulf loop which has the highest heat content.

[rolltide]

With the llc being further south and heading a little south of due west I wonder how this will effect the eventual track? I think the current models were initiated north of it's current location and the initial direction was west or wnw.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282014
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 19 20160828
200430 2337N 08129W 9771 00290 0098 +249 +238 162012 013 031 001 00
200500 2337N 08127W 9773 00288 0097 +256 +211 163012 012 029 000 00
200530 2336N 08126W 9773 00289 0096 +255 +229 167011 012 028 000 00
200600 2335N 08124W 9773 00288 0096 +252 +232 170013 013 028 000 00
200630 2334N 08122W 9739 00323 0100 +243 +239 157014 015 027 000 00
200700 2333N 08121W 9617 00430 0099 +234 +232 182021 023 034 000 00
200730 2332N 08119W 9592 00451 0097 +234 +227 175020 023 034 001 00
200800 2332N 08117W 9560 00482 0098 +231 +222 153019 021 039 000 03
200830 2332N 08115W 9616 00434 0100 +228 +224 154017 019 032 002 00
200900 2332N 08113W 9561 00480 0101 +227 +218 159015 018 029 000 00
200930 2332N 08111W 9619 00427 0098 +231 +219 165023 024 029 001 00
201000 2332N 08109W 9619 00428 0099 +231 +221 172027 028 033 001 00
201030 2332N 08108W 9614 00434 0101 +229 +224 171028 028 035 000 03
201100 2334N 08107W 9616 00433 0102 +228 +221 170028 028 034 000 03
201130 2336N 08107W 9608 00442 0101 +229 +221 169027 027 035 000 00
201200 2338N 08107W 9606 00445 0103 +229 +222 166026 026 036 000 00
201230 2340N 08107W 9590 00456 0103 +230 +220 166025 026 034 000 00
201300 2342N 08107W 9605 00449 0105 +230 +224 167026 027 034 000 00
201330 2344N 08107W 9587 00462 0105 +230 +224 162027 027 034 000 00
201400 2347N 08107W 9586 00464 0103 +230 +225 164027 028 034 000 00

28 kt FL, 36 kt SFMR.

[bob rulz]

What's the strongest a storm that formed IN the Gulf has become?

Just from this link, you have Hurricane Audrey at Cat 4 and Hurricane Alicia at Cat 3

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/

Thanks. I just wanted to get an idea of what COULD happen (not necessarily what will by any means). The Gulf is a scary place to have a developing storm at this time of year.

[psyclone]

So upgrade with the 5 pm package?

my guess is no.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like drifting southwest or west-southwest for the time being. But more center fixes will help with that determination.

[Aric Dunn]

34, 35,36 kt sfmr winds so far just east of the center.

[Frank P]

34, 35,36 kt sfmr winds so far just east of the center.

I expect an upgrade to TD... either at 5 or later tonight..

[TheStormExpert]

So upgrade with the 5 pm package?

Going to have to lean with no, could be wrong.

[SouthDadeFish]

34, 35,36 kt sfmr winds so far just east of the center.

Flight-level winds not really supporting TS force winds yet though. Probably just a TD if it is classified as a TC.

[Evil Jeremy]

I am not expecting an advisory package at 5. I am however expecting a Special TWO to let us know what the NHC is thinking. They have released STWOs in cases like these before.

[LSU2001]

With the llc being further south and heading a little south of due west I wonder how this will effect the eventual track? I think the current models were initiated north of it's current location and the initial direction was west or wnw.

I hate to see a storm entering the gulf with a WSW heading. To me this means a more west eventual landfall than is usually predicted. I don't know how it will affect this storms path but usually when a storm moves through the straits and does the due west or WSW track the north turn seems to always come later than forecast and leads to a more western landfall.
JMHO,
TIm

[poof121]

Hurricane Anita in 1977 became a five before hitting Mexico.

bob rulz,
The gulf can spin up some monsters if the upper air conditions are good. There is no shortage of hot water to fuel the storms. However, the other variables are what normally limits development not the heat content or size of the gulf.
Tim

however this will be passing over the gulf loop which has the highest heat content.

Actually, the warm eddy is off to the west right now.

[Dean4Storms]

If they are indeed finding closed LL winds and 30-35kt winds to the east of the center they have no real choice but to designate it a TC, if for no other reason but a warning to mariners!!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 4:14pm EDT: